Wales Cymru Autumn Weather Discussion

[Marcus_surfer]

What a nice afternoon it's turning out to be, warm sunshine, blue skies and temps around 13c / 14c

[Jackfrost]

Yup, a nice spring-like day, sunny and warm.

We're overdue a good March snowfall though. 2001, 2004, 2005 and 2006 all saw fantastic events around here but hardly anything since! Even April 14th-15th 1999 saw two continuous nights of snow, ended up with 5 inches, so we know we're not in the clear yet.

[DeepSnow]

A beautiful spring like day here, sunny with virtually now wind, warm with a high of 13.9C and the air nice and fresh. A perfect spring day

[J10]

Glorious day today, temps 12c but definitely feeling springlike.

If it was on offer I would take sunny days like this through to September, of course a little bit warmer.

[mikeocarroll]

Agree it was a lovely day today, next week looks colder though. Models mixed on the extent of any North-Westerly and later Easterly flow. Snow is possible according to GFS in particular but it would be marginal and depend a lot a the time of day as daytime dewpoints are higher as we head into spring.

[andymusic]

Cold looks more developed and easterlyish on the GFS 18z - pub run mind - can't really be trusted - think we'll have a better idea with tomorrow's model runs - but the potential for wintriness is defo there!

There's that sundays snow potential again!!!!

And a potentially snowy Wales for next Tuesday as well

Edited February 29, 2012 by andymusic

[J10]

Will Spring be more snowy than Winter, proably not but here's hoping, and then after that my earlier post applies,

[keithlucky]

Yes the latest faxes and GFS has the possibility of snow on the northern edge of the front as it passes through Wales .The the LP becomes slow moving ,with the front stalling and pushing back westwards ,can we pull cold enough continental air across the UK to give us some snow?

[Snowangel-MK]

Happy St. David's Day to all on here!

Dydd Gŵyl Dewi

[Snowmadsam]

Happy St. David's Day to all on here!

Dydd Gŵyl Dewi

Thanks MK

[keithlucky]

Yes the latest faxes and GFS has the possibility of snow on the northern edge of the front as it passes through Wales .The the LP becomes slow moving ,with the front stalling and pushing back westwards ,can we pull cold enough continental air across the UK to give us some snow?

Just look at holland temps for weekend turning a lot colder looks promising. Edited March 1, 2012 by keithlucky

[J10]

Dw i'n teimlo dipyn bach o siomedig gyda models heddiw. Y Cyfle o eira neu cawodydd gaeafol yn y wythnos nesa wedi yw weddol.

Ond Dydd Gwyl Dewi gwych i popeth.

[TonyH]

Lovely warm day max 15.3c!

[J10]

ti'n lucws iawn unwaith eto gyda temerydd

Mae hi'n un deg un celsiws yma heddiw ond tiemlo gwych gyda ysbiediai heulog.

You are lucky again with the temps

It was 11 here today and felt nice in the sunny intervals

I wouldn't mind if we had if we had sunshine till Sept now, no hosepipe bans likely for Wales !!!!

[andymusic]

Pretty intense storm brewing from the GFS 18z tonight for Sunday, windy and heavy rain/sleet/snow - potential for some wintry weather too into the evening on sunday still showing

Edited March 2, 2012 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

Met still unsure about the storm maybe be possible lol.Have you seen the Nae chart Andy?

Edited March 2, 2012 by keithlucky

[keithlucky]

Looks like we could see back edge snow tommorow morning ,nice to see .even the met has mentioned this.

[DeepSnow]

Just had a heavy hail shower here, feeling a bit fresher outside today currently 10.4C but still nice out now the sun is back!

[bradymk]

Lateset NAE Chart showing snow for most of Wales tomorrow, interesting. Whether it will happen or not though is a different story. Been a nice day again today once the rain cleared, mainly clear and a high of 11.2c.

[keithlucky]

Lateset NAE Chart showing snow for most of Wales tomorrow, interesting. Whether it will happen or not though is a different story. Been a nice day again today once the rain cleared, mainly clear and a high of 11.2c.

Yes we could well see snow but all bar welsh mountains we wont see settling snow ground temps now too high.

[J10]

I think the snow on NAE, more reflects the wintry showers following on behind the rain band, as opposed to the rain band itself.

[CLH the red dragon]

Just had a heavy hail shower here, feeling a bit fresher outside today currently 10.4C but still nice out now the sun is back!

I was on my bike during that.

At the top of the Bwlch.

[TonyH]

Weather guide Sunday 4th to Saturday 10th March for west Wales and the Midlands

Headline: Cold and probably wet Sunday, dry early next week, then changeable with some rain, but mild

Most of us saw some pleasant Spring weather at times last week, and on Friday Ceredigion was the warmest part of the UK, Llanwnnen reaching 15c, some 6c above the early March average. We are not likely to see temperatures as high in the coming week. Some much needed rain probable for the Midlands tomorrow.

Small lows heading for the South-west approaches of the UK are notoriously difficult beasts to forecast. They often contain locally very wet weather, and tend to drag colder air around their northern flanks. Due to margins of error with the modelling of their expected tracks, forecasts are liable to go wrong even a few hours ahead! At this time of the year, if the low tracks across southern England or Wales, then these areas get a very wet spell, perhaps even with some snow eventually, but should the low track a mere hundred miles or so further south over northern France then the much of Wales and the MIdlands would end up with a dry day. So ,let's see how Sunday pans out!

It is exactly this scenario that we are faced with on Sunday (a forecaster's nightmare or was that challenge!).

My stab is that the low will cross the far south of England during Sunday, with heavy rain extending up across south and mid Wales and much of the Midlands. North Wales and the far north Midlands will see a cloudy but mostly dry day, apart from perhaps a little rain at times. It will be a cold, raw day, temperatures reaching just 5 or 6c, and with colder northerly winds digging in behind this feature then the rain may turn to sleet or wet snow during the afternoon, especially over high ground such as the Brecon Beacons and the Cotswolds. Such are the margins of error, that Warwickshire could get anything between 5mm and 20mm of rain tomorrow, the difference between a damp day and a really wet one! The precipitation will probably clear west Wales by mid afternoon, but persists into the evening for Warwickshire.

Sunday night will see clearing skies leading to a ground frost, especially west Wales. The low is close to the east coast on Monday so quite a cold day with a fresh north wind, sunny spells and perhaps a few showers. Temperatures struggling to reach 8c. Frosty on Monday night, with Tuesday being a pleasant, mostly sunny and dry day, temperatures a bit higher at around 10c. Atlantic fronts bring cloud and rain overnight Tuesday and first thing Wednesday. Brighter Wednesday afternoon with some showers, especially for west Wales, and a cool west wind.

For the end of the week, high pressure is tantalising close to our south- though perhaps not close enough to prevent weak troughs bringing bands of cloud and a little rain at times. So Thursday to Saturday seems breezy and milder but fairly dry, temperatures reaching 11 to 13c with no night frosts.

Edited March 3, 2012 by TonyH

[Liam Ellis]

Mother reporting snow back in NW Wales, Deiniolen area, but a Mild 6.2c here in central Cardiff.

[georgiedre]

Yes liam I can confirm that the snow is down to a decent level! Areas such as fron , rhosgadfan an deiniolen all affected! None for us here in caernarfon