45 replies to this topic

[johnholmes]

yes I like your format Roger-as to the content I suspect your 'real' forecast may be a touch different?

[The PIT]

No summer forecast yet from Netweather only seven days left???

[Roger J Smith]

Okay, I'll end the suspense, that is my forecast. So now you're doomed to three months of low cloud, drizzle and chilly winds from the sea. Oh wait a minute, I'm not visiting, you'll be okay (1965, 1972, 1978, 1988, 2007 ... RS visits land of birth ... see a pattern there? And it was June 1972, aargh. ).

[A Scottish Winter's Tale]

Roger J Smith, on 23 May 2012 - 19:52 , said:

I wouldn't say far lower, the month is almost over and there is a clear indication of a regime change from cool/wet to warm/dry in the forecast for the end of May into June. Looking at the numerical output for the forecast, I would say this warm spell has come on about five days ahead of the forecast output. So that's not too bad from three months out. I've always said that this approach will perform at about 65% accuracy relative to normal giving an improvement over random. This past season has done a little better than that and so for that matter did the winter forecast.

Since summer forecasts are appearing here, and I only gave a sketchy one, this is the actual forecast. I'm giving this in a format that I think would be good for all forecasts to provide a more objective scoring system.

JUNE ... Mainly warm and dry, especially first half of month. Temperatures 1.5 to 2.0 above normal, CET 15.9. Rainfall around 70% southeast to 90% northern half UK, sunshine 10-20 per cent above normal.

JULY ... Near normal conditions first half then back to warm and dry, some heat waves. Temperatures 1.0 to 1.5 above normal, CET 17.3. Rainfall around 100% of normal but with wide variations locally, some severe storms likely first half, dry trend second half. Sunshine 10-20 per cent above normal mainly due to frequent sunny days second half.

AUGUST ... Heat wave conditions likely at times, temperatures 1.5 to 2.5 above normal, CET 18.2. Rainfall around 50% of normal, isolated storms but many places going into drought conditions, sunshine 20-30 per cent above normal.

Max temps for the summer could be as high as 37-39 C and there may be comparisons to 1990 or even 2003.

Comment ... while this may sound like non-stop hot weather, there could be one or two spells of cool weather lasting a few days between the warm spells. The word "reload" may become familiar in the model thread.

P.S. -- I may be totally kidding, imitators could discover themselves out on a limb when I change this later. Or will I?

As jh says, your format and layout is very good. It would be good if forecast entries followed a similar format which would make comparisons a lot easier.

A general, bitesize description; numerical prediction of range of temperatures compared to average; CET prediction; rainfall percentage prediction plus description of general precip; sunshine percentage compared to average - sounds like a very good format to follow. I often find that I wobble off in my forecasts so perhaps I would be better off breaking it down into a similar format.

[Roger J Smith]

I hope we will one day have meaningful validations and also movement towards funding and acceptance of valid approaches. Almost like a real science, you might say.

[Robbie Garrett]

Wow... I completely forgot that I put a forecast... but how about this for almost correct??

Quote

MAY 2012 - Summary - Unsettled May - Well above average rainfall, below average temperatures, very windy weather on exposed locations, ending on a high in the last week of May.

A very wet month in most places, with a top temperature of 23-27*C during the warmest parts in the last week of May. Low pressure very dominant, during the first week of May with a continuation of westerlies, with temperatures averaging very close to 8-13*C across most parts of the UK. Sunshine amounts are likely to be highly variable during these conditions. Unsettled conditions to prevail during the second week of may, with many places seeing above average rainfall and below average temperatures. During week 3 in may, temperature remaning below average with rainfall continuing to be well above the average. By week 4 high pressure builds over western and central northern parts of Europe, allowing the most unsettled conditions into Iberia. Temperatures recovering to average, sometimes above average in the Sunshine.

Edited by Robbie Garrett, Today, 20:25.