The Seasonal Forecast Thread

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Talk of Feb I'm thinking that the PV will drop this side of the hemisphere and a very cold volatile regime will set in.  Winds from NW to NE quadrant.

 

From above on 8th Jan......Jan was going mild then we have this current cold period [nice bonus and bodes imo extra well for Feb]

 

I know its only the 20th but time for me to update Feb outlook.  So what am I looking for....generally the same as above.  My LRF states that we would see the PV in tatters and the results of the SSW in its full glory and a pattern of Dec 2010 esque. Well maybe not quite but not a great change.  The change being that we may not get anywhere as strong a GHP anomaly and the AZH is likely to remain some sort of player but a useful one as it retrogresses somewhat.  I think a general v deep trough over UK / Scandinavia / NW Europe with serious HIGH IMPACT sub low activity with waves of arctic air piling down from NNW/N...Greenland/arctic with AZH retrogressing west in Atlantic and at times ridging to Greenland.  GFS in FI for turn of month early Feb showing the sort of signs I've been envisaging.  A very volatile month lies ahead with at times bitterly cold air from NW to NE Quadrant.  Still my coldest month [not difficult to be that lol]  but significantly so.  If more activity occurs in the strat then indeed we could se HLB later in the month.  Dates of note still remain as in LRF but hold on to your hats with this one.  Precip levels higher than average, colder than average.

 

BFTP

Edited January 21, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Hotspur62]

From above on 8th Jan......Jan was going mild then we have this current cold period [nice bonus and bodes imo extra well for Feb]

 

I know its only the 20th but time for me to update Feb outlook.  So what am I looking for....generally the same as above.  My LRF states that we would see the PV in tatters and the results of the SSW in its full glory and a pattern of Dec 2010 esque. Well maybe not quite but not a great change.  The change being that we may not get anywhere as strong a GHP anomaly and the AZH is likely to remain some sort of player but a useful one as it retrogresses somewhat.  I think a general v deep trough over UK / Scandinavia / NW Europe with serious sub low activity with waves of arctic air piling down from NNW/N...Greenland/arctic with AZH retrogressing west in Atlantic and at times ridging to Greenland.  GFS in FI for turn of month early Feb showing the sort of signs I've been envisaging.  A very volatile month lies ahead with at times bitterly cold air from NW to NE Quadrant.  Still my coldest month [not difficult to be that lol]  but significantly so.  If more activity occurs in the strat then indeed we could se HLB later in the month.  Dates of note still remain as in LRF but hold on to your hats with this one.  Precip levels higher than average, colder than average.

 

BFTP

Think your LRf has been pretty close to the mark so well done on that as they are very difficult to do and it does annoy me sometimes when people ridicule those that make them if they don't go according to plan. I do hope your Feb forecast verifies and there are a few things of Interest.

 

1.the AH and hopefully its displacement Westwards as you state is most important.

2.If this SSW continues as seems possible then 12-15 days time lets hope it splits the PV and we have a large chunk on the Siberian side. North America have had enough luck over last 2 winters lol!!

3.We need heights to remain low over Central Europe(N Italy) which will help amplification.

 

I know there are a lot of if/buts but the potential is really there to have a well below Feb Average. One thing I am not sure is if we have a Scand  High or Greenland High(If the above falls into place).Heights have been missing so far this winter as has a cold pool of temps to our East that we can tap into for the future. I am also a little concerned re the Met Office's stance as they at present are just calling for pretty much continuation of what we saw in first 10 days of Jan. If/when they come on board it would be great to see a December 10 scenario develop(I know probably wishful thinking !!)

 

Anyway I have rambled on enough and keep up the good work BFTP!!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi Hotspur61

Cheers its been a pretty frustrating winter thus far and clearly a mix of everyones has come to fruition at times.  AZH has been the winter bug bear.

Loads to still get through and synotically I've had to adjust original Feb outlook as HLB isn't IMO going to be as widespread/obvious but am very hopeful its going to be the most interesting and coldest wintry month.  My Full Moon/Apogee period early Feb is main focus point initally as I also think we'll see some 'solar flare' activity too in the mix around this time.   I'm liking what the models are showing and if this period comes to fruition as I see it, will it be MJO driven or MJO and jetstream reacting to solar activity on the strat and lunar modulation activity?  We'll see as this period has been one of my winter 'targets' well before the MJO could be seen to  suggest such synoptic pattern.

Overall thus far I'm in same boat as many LRF ers..........this winter has not gone where one would think on occassions......good old UK

 

BFTP

Edited January 22, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Bobd29]

Hi Hotspur61

Cheers its been a pretty frustrating winter thus far and clearly a mix of everyones has come to fruition at times.  AZH has been the winter bug bear.

Loads to still get through and synotically I've had to adjust original Feb outlook as HLB isn't IMO going to be as widespread/obvious but am very hopeful its going to be the most interesting and coldest wintry month.  My Full Moon/Apogee period early Feb is main focus point initally as I also think we'll see some 'solar flare' activity too in the mix around this time.   I'm liking what the models are showing and if this period comes to fruition as I see it, will it be MJO driven or MJO and jetstream reacting to solar activity on the strat and lunar modulation activity?  We'll see as this period has been one of my winter 'targets' well before the MJO could be seen to  suggest such synoptic pattern.

Overall thus far I'm in same boat as many LRF ers..........this winter has not gone where one would think on occassions......good old UK

 

BFTP

...apart that is from the METO who have been pretty spot on with their forecast, especially the +AO reflecting everything else when initially this was against the trend of most forecasts pre-winter

[feno13]

Hi Hotspur61

Cheers its been a pretty frustrating winter thus far and clearly a mix of everyones has come to fruition at times.  AZH has been the winter bug bear.

Loads to still get through and synotically I've had to adjust original Feb outlook as HLB isn't IMO going to be as widespread/obvious but am very hopeful its going to be the most interesting and coldest wintry month.  My Full Moon/Apogee period early Feb is main focus point initally as I also think we'll see some 'solar flare' activity too in the mix around this time.   I'm liking what the models are showing and if this period comes to fruition as I see it, will it be MJO driven or MJO and jetstream reacting to solar activity on the strat and lunar modulation activity?  We'll see as this period has been one of my winter 'targets' well before the MJO could be seen to  suggest such synoptic pattern.

Overall thus far I'm in same boat as many LRF ers..........this winter has not gone where one would think on occassions......good old UK

 

BFTP

I am a bit disappointed to read that you have gone adjusting you LRF, imo once you put it out there at the beginning of winter, that is it no tinkering about .

[Lettucing Gutted]

Do you think there is any chance of us still beating Februaries 2013 and 2010 even if the HLB fails, BFTP?  Or if the HLB finally arrives could we finally beat February 1996 or even February 1991?

Edited January 22, 2015 by Craig Evans

[TonyH]

LRFs can be fun to read but come on who honestly believes they can forecast the next 3 months weather 

Edited January 22, 2015 by TonyH

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I am a bit disappointed to read that you have gone adjusting you LRF, imo once you put it out there at the beginning of winter, that is it no tinkering about .

As in I've adjusted my current thinking a touch re Feb as an updated assessment as the AZH has been/is a pain and the PV has been too good at riding the blows preventing the likelihood of HLB taking hold.  The strong HLB isn't likely to be there as anticipated but the theme of PV and trough placement/movement itself remains.  Just wanted to clarify that, the actual LRF is as it was.

 

 

BFTP

Edited January 22, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Do you think there is any chance of us still beating Februaries 2013 and 2010 even if the HLB fails, BFTP?  Or if the HLB finally arrives could we finally beat February 1996 or even February 1991?

I still feel Feb will be domianted by flow from NW to N to at times NE quadrant and remain that it will come in below average, no change there but sustained cold is not as likely as very sharp impactual bursts interrupted by less cold NW sectors.  The strat warming came in Jan as anticipated by many, its impact/implications and if any further warming are still ongoing.  Strong/dominating HLB isn't looking as likely [not totally discounted] but have a funny feeling its coming for v late winter/early Spring.

 

BFTP

[Roger J Smith]

There is major, major cold showing up in eastern North America for first ten days of February. In the past, other years with similar patterns include 1855, 1895, 1899, 1934, 1967, 1993 and 1995. This shows that there is always room for different outcomes across the Atlantic but it does tend to stack the deck somewhat towards significant cold outbreaks for the UK. What's needed is some decent ridge building at 30-40 W to cut off the inevitable deep lows in the western Atlantic and force them to travel north towards Baffin Island. I think there may be one or two such episodes but I agree with Fred that a mixed bag of synoptics seems inevitable, this Atlantic seems game to continue the fight against what has turned out to be unusually widespread deep cold at higher latitudes. The Pacific is just toying with the arctic highs on this side and they are quite happy to take the path of least resistance across western Hudson Bay into Quebec. But there is some potential for pattern reversal given the rather large pool of below normal SST values in the central to eastern Atlantic. This may turn out more like the cold March of 2013 than anything centered on February.

[Hotspur62]

There is major, major cold showing up in eastern North America for first ten days of February. In the past, other years with similar patterns include 1855, 1895, 1899, 1934, 1967, 1993 and 1995. This shows that there is always room for different outcomes across the Atlantic but it does tend to stack the deck somewhat towards significant cold outbreaks for the UK. What's needed is some decent ridge building at 30-40 W to cut off the inevitable deep lows in the western Atlantic and force them to travel north towards Baffin Island. I think there may be one or two such episodes but I agree with Fred that a mixed bag of synoptics seems inevitable, this Atlantic seems game to continue the fight against what has turned out to be unusually widespread deep cold at higher latitudes. The Pacific is just toying with the arctic highs on this side and they are quite happy to take the path of least resistance across western Hudson Bay into Quebec. But there is some potential for pattern reversal given the rather large pool of below normal SST values in the central to eastern Atlantic. This may turn out more like the cold March of 2013 than anything centered on February.

I quite like the sound of this!!. Something is brewing here and would love an equivalent March 2013 say from Mid February as being that bit earlier should help the whole of the UK have a cold spell. TBF March 2013 was cold everywhere, but the heavy snow was really Midlands Northwards with South only having slight accumulations.

[Zenarcher]

My February Forecast Can Be View Here https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4872-february-2015-forecast/

[BornFromTheVoid]

Winter forecast is going ok so far.https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/?p=3078106

 

Called for a greater likelihood of a milder than (but close to) average and mixed December, which came off, and a January to February period with below average temps and rainfall, will is looking good at the moment.

 

Still nearly 4 weeks to go, and the blocking hasn't been as strong as expected nor has the AO been negative, but not too bad so far methinks.

[Recretos]

Not sure where to put this, but since it is related to seasonal forecasting since it is SST analysis, I will put it in here. My new test products. The text needs editing, etc, but the main point is on the graphic. 

 

 

 

Edited February 11, 2015 by Recretos

[syed2878]

i see one or two are saying we might get another march2013. isn't that mor a hopecast just like the cold hearted winter forecast?

[Polar Maritime]

i see one or two are saying we might get another march2013. isn't that mor a hopecast just like the cold hearted winter forecast?

 

Nope that was a forecast as you quite rightly put it.

[Peter H]

i see one or two are saying we might get another march2013. isn't that mor a hopecast just like the cold hearted winter forecast?

I think so. The "cold hearted winter" was anything but, and there's nothing at all in the outlook either. As with last winter, the Atlantic has been far too strong. Even the rest of Europe appears to have had a pretty mild one, apart from snow in the Alps.

March 2013 was really only for high ground here, and areas at sea level and along the coast really had little to shout about.

To sum up this winter. December mild and wet apart from a few "coldish" days after Christmas. January much the same apart from a couple of "coldish" spells with a skiff of snow at the end of the month. February has so far been mostly dry with temperatures around normal or a little above.

I do hope next year delivers something at least a little better.

[Weather-history]

I think so. The "cold hearted winter" was anything but, and there's nothing at all in the outlook either.

Actually if you look at the 31 day rolling CET for this winter, it dipped below 3C, which means it was below average and this coincided with the heart of winter more or less.

It depends how you perceive "cold" in a forecast. If you see it as December 2010 type then IMO it is wrongly perceived. That's exceptionally cold.

I think that's the trouble when interpreting forecasts. When a cold winter forecast is given, images of snowbound etc come into mind.

[Recretos]

March 2013 repeat? I dont think so. At all. The March 2015 pattern looks to be more like the complete opposite of March 2013.

 

  

 

Edited February 17, 2015 by Recretos

[bluearmy]

andrej - the CFS ?? really ?

[Recretos]

Always when in a hurry. You know, I dont have the time to always do deep analysis and reanalysis.

 

Ok if it makes someone feel better, here is the JMA monthly ensemble forecast, which is closer to March 2013 pattern.

 

Edited February 17, 2015 by Recretos

[Recretos]

Considering most people here are from UK, you should most certainly also look at AMO, AMM and AWP.

[Roger J Smith]

Well, that was perhaps the least interesting winter of the past ten and so we move on in search of a season more able to satisfy our search for excitement.

 

In that case, one might want to look past summer 2015 as well. I am going to not go out on a limb and say this summer will end up rather close to average in temperature, and probably on the wet side of normal too. If this wet trend is enhanced, that may be the big talking point. I am not convinced it will be as dire as 2007 but it could be towards that end of the spectrum.

 

This is based on a combination of research output and just a subjective appraisal of how things appear likely to set up -- very warm southeast Europe anomalies, near normal France to Scandinavia, probably slightly below normal Ireland and Scotland, so that England and Wales most likely near or just below normal, quite cloudy on average, so a reduced diurnal range (days cooler than normal, nights a bit warmer than average), and with the frontal zone implied to be close to a western France to eastern England orientation much of the time, you can see potential for very heavy rainfalls especially in south central England and the east Midlands.

 

Might therefore be a good summer for storm chasing interests.

 

In North America, my prediction is for a very hot summer in central regions with an extension of that regime to the east coast at times. This will probably be associated with developing drought conditions in parts of the southern plains and possibly as far north as Nebraska (but after the storm chase season is over) with above normal rainfalls in the northern plains and Canadian prairies, Great Lakes, upper Midwest and New England. I am expecting a better hurricane season with a final count of about 16/10/4. The far west will have a near normal summer with some spells of hot, dry weather interspersed with cooler, showery days, all blending into a near normal regime.

 

I'll be interested in reading all other opinions on the summer. If you want to verify this against hard numbers, I will say 13.9, 16.0 and 15.5 for CET June-Aug and 50%, 30% and 20% above normal rainfalls in those months. A specific time window for heavy and possibly flooding rainfall will be 16-20 June.

[Lettucing Gutted]

I'll be interested in reading all other opinions on the summer. If you want to verify this against hard numbers, I will say 13.9, 16.0 and 15.5 for CET June-Aug and 50%, 30% and 20% above normal rainfalls in those months. A specific time window for heavy and possibly flooding rainfall will be 16-20 June.

That's a very interesting summer forecast Roger.  If that comes off it will only be the 2nd summer after 1987 along with 2011 were all 3 summer months finished below all 3 recent 30 year averages though only just so, especially for July.

Edited May 5, 2015 by Goodbye Cold Weather! :(

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

An interesting outlook by Roger indeed.  May is already shaping up to be unsettled with pretty cool conditions interspersed by the odd southerly plume....but settled and warm isn't looking the form horse.   For me we are entering the period [2015-17] that may be the step change to cooling conditions due to the oncoming potential deep solar minima.  If the solar and lunar forcing is as strong as believed by some [and that is me] then we enter interesting years and may be defining in a way.

However, back to this year we are currently in/approaching the lunar minima standstill period peaking in October 2015[ this is when the moon declination is only 18 degrees above/below the equator compared to 28.5 degrees at other points in 18.6 year cycle and may have effect of warm waters concentrating/building around equator a la an El Nino] and thus we could see a significant El Nino develop this year [most recent equivalent period was 1998 and then 1982 but admittedly El Ninos do occur at other times so fo me its part of the puzzle with the solar side being the most important] which could have impact on the globe this year. [last year globally was warm and this year could follow but a rapid drop [not instant iceage but a lot cooler conditions relatively] is also anticipated by me sometime during the 2015/7 period.  What interests me even more is that we are in an 'overall' -ve PDO phase which has effect of dampening El Ninos but Pacific SSTs are looking/supporting El Nino.  How strong will it get to? 

Just some musings

Anyway its been pretty wild down here and looks like the next couple of weeks will bring some more active weather.

 

 

BFTP

Edited May 12, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST