The Midlands Regional Discussion - Part 5

[Potent Gust]

Have you seen the updated warnings Andy? Anything from 1cm to 10cm. It really is going to be a case of radar watching

[JonMillar]

This PPN seems WAY ahead of schedule to me :blink: A heavy blob has just hit Nottingham and is making a b line for Leicester, I didn't expect to see this kind of precip here until about 6pm at the earliest :wacko:

Not a flake coming from it though! Perhaps its "faux" precipitation

Edited February 9, 2012 by JonMillar

[Chunky Flake]

I have to drive to the Southwest at 6pm tonight . Do you guys and girls think I am going to struggle to get there ?.

[Bishop Brennan]

Brightening up nicely here in Solihull... ((Grrr)

Yup, just enough to push the temp above freezing. Currently +0.5, although it seems to clouding over again now.

Bish

[klippieboo]

sleety stuff here now

[richbiss]

Sleet just started! Temp 0.1c

[fourseasons]

We've been downgraded to light snow on the Met Office Website throughout the snow event while a little further W/SW in Solihull and East in Rugby, they will have a period of heavy snow. That's odd to say the least; with the large uncertainty about when the front will arrive, which direction it's going, and even whether it's going to be freezing rain or snow; it's all quite a little bizarre to be honest.

Edited February 9, 2012 by fourseasons

[Ryan05]

a few flakes in the air here in Nottingham but nothing more than that

[Bolton67]

Zakos !!!

We are back in the heavy snow again.. :rofl: Give it another couple of hours and it will change again. :lol:

[PolarWarsaw]

Afternoon - still dont like the chances of tonight. Compared to all forecasts the front is 4 or 5 hours early in arriving, whether that has an affect down the line is to be questioned. I see the 06z suggested another shift westwards and the most recent BBC forecast barely showed any white for Birmingham. Im very skeptical, dont get your hopes up would be my advice.

[Bishop Brennan]

We've been downgraded to light snow on the Met Office Website throughout the snow event while a little further W/SW in Solihull and East in Rugby, they will have a period of heavy snow. That's odd to say the least; with the large uncertainty about when the front will arrive, which direction it's going, and even whether it's going to be freezing rain or snow; it's all quite a little bizarre to be honest.

Looks like the whole event has been shifted further & further south and west in the past few hours. Presumably Solihull is still just about within the "sweet zone", although I'm sure Coventry is close enough to join in as well

Bish

[phil nw.]

The latest fax for T24hrs-006hrs Friday.show why the forecasters are having problems with this.

Two fronts-one from the west and the one from the east and the chances of little shortwave developments as the boundarys between the mild and cold uppers meet.The main action by this time is towards the west midlands into wales and sw england,according to the NAE.

See the cold air pushing west again and the uppers getting colder from the east.

Likely to be a good frost Saturday night when all this clears under a surface high.

[andy_leics22]

Oh dear, so we are under moderate PPN right now but nothing is falling, here we go again

[Cheshire Freeze]

This would put Manchester down to south east Wales in the firing line........but can't see this coming off atm

Edited February 9, 2012 by CreweCold

[Adzyy]

Nothing falling here as of yet.

[andy_leics22]

This would put Manchester down to south east Wales in the firing line........but can't see this coming off atm

I'm amazed at how far West the models changed this at the last minute. Last night the NAE had the bulk of the PPN heading into central England, now they have it heading into Wales

[Nick L]

For those panicking about the radar showing falling PPN but there's nothing in reality, let me copy my post from the main thread...

The skew-T from Nottingham shows us why quite nicely...

http://nwstatic.co.u...76410131441.png

The left hand line represents dew point, the right temperature. So the closer they are together the moister the air. Higher up the air is saturated (cloud cover), nearer the surface it is much, much drier so the precipitation simply evaporates. As we head through the day, the air near the surface will become more moist...

http://nwstatic.co.u...76410131441.png

The more rain that gets evaporated into the air at the surface, the wetter the air will become and the easier it will be for the PPN to reach the surface. Don't panic just yet.

[phil nw.]

This would put Manchester down to south east Wales in the firing line........but can't see this coming off atm

Yes i was just about to post that myself C.C

Actually NAE shows a decently widespread snow event tonight.

it appears the area of snowfall expands insitu before moving west by morning-if you follow all the images.That would be as i said above when those boudaries meet and create further convection.

This is the unknown part.It doesn`t look as straightforward as last Saturday where the frontal passage was comparitively straightforward.

Still as ever i reckon it`s down to Radar watch soon.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/banbury_forecast_weather.html

Upgraded to Heavy snow @ 9pm

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yes i was just about to post that myself C.C

Actually NAE shows a decently widespread snow event tonight.

it appears the area of snowfall expands insitu before moving west by morning-if you follow all the images.That would be as i said above when those boudaries meet and create further convection.

This is the unknown part.It doesn`t look as straightforward as last Saturday where the frontal passage was comparitively straightforward.

Still as ever i reckon it`s down to Radar watch soon.

Well Ian Fergusson tweeting that they're not expecting it to be as disruptive as last Sat......but even 2cm would better that event for here. Just a bit worried I'm too far north and have concerns it may not change to snow before the clearance. NAE keen on event as you say, the model te METO is using for their broadcasts obviously isn't as keen.

[Polar Low]

Plenty of anaprop on the radar right now guys, this has already been explained. Still a few hours to go yet...

[andy_leics22]

The NAE seems to be quite a way off with it's PPN placement to be honest.

This is what the NAE says for this afternoon and this is the actual radar shot right now...

[Nick L]

Plenty of anaprop on the radar right now guys, this has already been explained. Still a few hours to go yet...

Technically it's not anaprop. Anaprop is mainly due to radar interference showing non-existent PPN. This PPN DOES exist, it just can't physically reach the surface.

[snow freak]

so basically none of the forecasts have a bleedin clue at the end of the day. One minute the east is best, then its not, then it is again. i long for the day when the forecast is 100% reliable and the whole country has a guaranteed massive fall of snow

[andy_leics22]

Technically it's not anaprop. Anaprop is mainly due to radar interference showing non-existent PPN. This PPN DOES exist, it just can't physically reach the surface.

When would you expect it to actually start falling in Leicester Nick? It's like torture seeing a yellow blob just come over us and nothing fall from it :lol: