Significant Snow/Freezing Rain Risk - 9-10th February

[danm]

But who said the metoffice are basing their forecasts on the NAE? Im on about the metoffice warnings and time and time again, Londoners and people in the SE which is the majority of members on NW are confusing people else where in the UK, even some of the experienced forecasters. It's not just people in the SE but in the main it is. Instead of constant hope casting please can we have accurate predictions based on the current charts, radar. Personally I believe the metoffice, they we're spot on last weekend, they put my part of Wales in the warning zones just in case as there was a chance of disruptive snowfall here if there was a shift, they haven't done that for London so for me that suggests its highly unlikely to be in London and SE. This constant SE bias has been bugging me for a while

Thats the point though, people ARE backing up their comments with model runs and the latest radar images.

[guvnor22002]

looking at it again the 18z gfs for midnight tonight looks like its got the precipitation about right

[kold weather]

Im not being biased because im backing up my posts with the charts/radar.

I don't understand why some can't see what is in front of their eyes. You only have to compare the radar with the NAE to see what im on about. When it comes to forecasting events which are within 24hrs the radar has always been one of the best forecasting tools.

Latest radar update is even more amusing. The band of precip is expanding nicely out in the N Sea.

Ah I see now why thats happening. Pressure currently being observed over far northern England of something in the region of 1037-1039mbs. The NAE had pressures of 1040-1041 at this moment in time, NMM has something in the 1038-1040mbs range, so closer to the mark.

I think thats why that front is a little further south than expected by the models tonight, the high pressure is getting a little more eroded than first expected in the north.

[alijoe]

To be truthful, I won't believe the snow here unless I actually see it. That way I won't get too dissappointed. Anyway, if nothing else, I am enjoying the cold and dry weather here, much better for walking the dog. Fingers crossed we all get some well deserved snow soon for the whole country. sleeptight everyone.

[Gowon]

The ppn seems to be moving south quicker than what models estimated.

looking at it again the 18z gfs for midnight tonight looks like its got the precipitation about right

The position of the main band on the radar looks further south than what GFS is suggesting.

[TEITS]

Last post before I retire to bed.

NAE at midnight.

Radar.

So if you look across N Ireland/Scotland/N Sea its pretty clear the front is further SE. Very poor from the NAE.

How this impacts tomorrow I have no idea until I view the radar in the morning.

Poor radar pic but if you check yourself you will clearly see what I mean.

Edited February 9, 2012 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[greybing]

gosh,frenzied is this thread.

[Krakatoa01]

You quote the met yes? You think they are correct yes? Well look away from the forecast that was on 5 mins ago! The snow has been moved into central England, east midlands, Yorkshire. The precipitation will reach you but mainly as rain with an hour or two of snow! The temperature was forecast as 4 degrees where you are. The west midlands will be the only western area to get disruptive snowfall that you'd get excited over. Not 2cm

But who said the metoffice are basing their forecasts on the NAE? Im on about the metoffice warnings and time and time again, Londoners and people in the SE which is the majority of members on NW are confusing people else where in the UK, even some of the experienced forecasters. It's not just people in the SE but in the main it is. Instead of constant hope casting please can we have accurate predictions based on the current charts, radar. Personally I believe the metoffice, they we're spot on last weekend, they put my part of Wales in the warning zones just in case as there was a chance of disruptive snowfall here if there was a shift, they haven't done that for London so for me that suggests its highly unlikely to be in London and SE. This constant SE bias has been bugging me for a while

[summer blizzard]

All looks very messy with the band seemingly more intense and further south than forecast although places reporting freezing rain.

That said, today has seen run after run bring the undercut sooner and both the BBC and GFS seem to suggest that the freezing rain will turn to snow in Leeds from about 9pm although the band moves westward quicker so i have 15-18 hours of precipitation rather than 24 as previously forecast.

I would be very excited if i lived on the higher ground around Birmingham.

[Timmytour]

mmm...just seen BBC forecast......looks like the whole things shifting back East now.......not quite enough for any major snow here but perhaps withiin touching distance of getting a dusting. Mind you......perhaps this is the start of an eastward trend......very similar to the weekends shifting pattern. Crossing my fingers tightly that the eastward trend continues.....but not so much that it introduces mild air.

[Snow shut work]

Trouble is this is so hard to forecast.

A few hours ago parts of wales were doing ok. Now that real time updates and the appearance of updated data it can change at the drop of a hat, and seemingly so.

Swindon up to west warwks in that sort of direction look like the holy grail to me.

[Snow shut work]

We all know after our 5 hours of sleep it'll be different again.

[polarlow2]

I swore to myself, after the strain, nerves and stress of the build up to last weekend's event that I would take a more relaxed approach to snow chances from now on. And yet, just four days later...

[steveinsussex]

I swore to myself, after the strain, nerves and stress of the build up to last weekend's event that I would take a more relaxed approach to snow chances from now on. And yet, just four days later...

I suspect you are just about west enough to see 2 or 3 cm's

Edited February 9, 2012 by steveinsussex

[polarlow2]

I suspect you are just about west enough to see 2 or 3 cm's

Perhaps, although I'm sceptical. Fairly happy with what I got at the weekend though...

[worldairgroup]

bitter disappointment in south east wales as well last weekend. i live in a valley, south wales, two mountains either side and basically the snow came down hard literally two miles either side!!! when i say either side i mean further to the north and south of the valley so it was a case of chancing things! although because of our elevation we only had light snow with nothing materializing!!! am hoping that latest forecasts are right in showing this band pushing further into the west across wales and stalling, although theres not a huge chance i dont think!! for your information I am in Pontypridd, Upper Boat, A470, current temps -3.

[ZONE 51]

(Risk percentage is calculated by GFS indicating snow on its weather type chart and NAE showing precipitation as snow-pink, on its

ppn charts - models used for data - days 1/2-NAE and GFS/ days 3-7 GFS)

**Snow Watch - 7 Day outlook** - 9th February(data-18z-wednesday-8th feb)

Day 1-Thursday-risk-

90%-Eastern areas-Northeast England-The East and West Midlands-Yorkshire and Humber-East Anglia-light snow then moderate snow

90%-The more eastern and northeastern areas of Southwest England-light snow-maybe moderate snow

45%-Northwest England-light snow-risk of moderate snow - 45%-rain/freezing rain

90%-Central Southern/and the IOW and Southeastern England-light snow.

90%-parts of Wales more likely East Wales-light/moderate snow

(SNOW EVENT)

-

Day 2 - Friday - risk-

80%-Eastern, Central and South Wales-moderate snow/40%-North Wales-light snow

80%-East and West Midlands-Southwest England especially areas of northeastern and eastern Southwest England-moderate snow

40%-Northwest England-light snow or moderate snow

80%-Central Southern England-The IOW-moderate snow

40%The Southeast and East Anglia(mostly towards west for SE/EA) and maybe areas of Northeast England-light snow

40%-Southern Scotland-light maybe moderate snow.

(SNOW EVENT)

-

(IN AREAS OF MODERATE SNOW RISK THERE IS THE SAME RISK THIS BECOMING HEAVY SNOW/HEAVY FALLS OF SNOW)

-

(SOME CHANGES MAY OCCUR NEARER THE EVENT PLEASE KEEP TRACK OF WARNINGS/FORECASTS)

-

Day 3 - Saturday - risk - 35%- Northwest England-Southern and Central Scotland-some areas of Southwest England-some areas of Wales-light or moderate snow.

-

Day 4 -Sunday - risk - 30%-Northwest and Northeast England-some areas of Wales-Midlands-maybe Southwest England-lightsnow

-

Day 5 - Monday- risk - 25%- Southeast England-early-Scotland and parts of Northeast England late-light snow/light snow showers.

-

Day 6 - Tuesday -risk - 20% - widespread wintry showers and snow showers.

-

Day 7 - Wednesday -risk - 10% - widespread wintry showers and snow showers.

Edited February 9, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[toggerob]

snow forecast is keen to stick the majority of the precip across central England. http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

[summer blizzard]

Precipitation already in Carlile, is it snowing?

[worldairgroup]

(Risk percentage is calculated by GFS indicating snow on its weather type chart and NAE showing precipitation as snow-pink, on its

ppn charts - models used for data - days 1/2-NAE and GFS/ days 3-7 GFS)

**Snow Watch - 7 Day outlook** - 9th February(data-18z-wednesday-8th feb)

Day 1-Thursday-risk-

90%-Eastern areas-Northeast England-The East and West Midlands-Yorkshire and Humber-East Anglia-light snow then moderate snow

90%-The more eastern and northeastern areas of Southwest England-light snow-maybe moderate snow

45%-Northwest England-light snow-risk of moderate snow - 45%-rain/freezing rain

90%-Central Southern/and the IOW and Southeastern England-light snow.

90%-parts of Wales more likely East Wales-light/moderate snow

(SNOW EVENT)

-

Day 2 - Friday - risk-

80%-Eastern, Central and South Wales-moderate snow/40%-North Wales-light snow

80%-East and West Midlands-Southwest England especially areas of northeastern and eastern Southwest England-moderate snow

40%-Northwest England-light snow or moderate snow

80%-Central Southern England-The IOW-moderate snow

40%The Southeast and East Anglia(mostly towards west for SE/EA) and maybe areas of Northeast England-light snow

40%-Southern Scotland-light maybe moderate snow.

(SNOW EVENT)

-

(IN AREAS OF MODERATE SNOW RISK THERE IS THE SAME RISK THIS BECOMING HEAVY SNOW/HEAVY FALLS OF SNOW)

-

(SOME CHANGES MAY OCCUR NEARER THE EVENT PLEASE KEEP TRACK OF WARNINGS/FORECASTS)

-

Day 3 - Saturday - risk - 35%- Northwest England-Southern and Central Scotland-some areas of Southwest England-some areas of Wales-light or moderate snow.

-

Day 4 -Sunday - risk - 30%-Northwest and Northeast England-some areas of Wales-Midlands-maybe Southwest England-lightsnow

-

Day 5 - Monday- risk - 25%- Southeast England-early-Scotland and parts of Northeast England late-light snow/light snow showers.

-

Day 6 - Tuesday -risk - 20% - widespread wintry showers and snow showers.

-

Day 7 - Wednesday -risk - 10% - widespread wintry showers and snow showers.

hi electric do you mind if i post this on regional forum for wales, with credits to you?

[ZONE 51]

hi electric do you mind if i post this on regional forum for wales, with credits to you?

Yes thats fine.. Edited February 9, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[James M]

Is that some funny radar glitch or is that a rather fine example of orographic lifting in Scotland, where it seems the heavier echoes exactly match the land? It's like you can see the outline of the scottish islands through the precip! (more noticeable on raintoday)

Edited February 9, 2012 by James M

[TEITS]

Slight change from some of the model output especially the UKMO/GFS which have shifted slightly further E again although im not surprised due to the radar.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs243.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/02/09/basis00/ukuk/prec/12021000_0900.gif

So main focus remains across E/SE Wales/W Midlands. However the GFS/UKMO suggest more snowfall than the NAE across the E Midlands and looking at the radar it appears the NAE has underestimated the current amount across the N Sea. As ever it will now come down to following the radar rather than the models.

[ZONE 51]

The map i have created below is using the latest GFS/NAE data 00z

I used overlays/layers to do this of the actual precipitation charts, some local areas would most likely see very heavy snowfall in the dark pink area/zone-that area on my map is generally covering moderate and heavy snowfall, i thought it would be best to not place where the more heavy snowfalls could occur as this could change over the hours, so its radar watching for 2 days then! the map covers the period of thursday and friday merged into one map, so some areas wont see the snow until late thursday or even friday depending on the speed/angle and movement of the snowfall, but all in all the map has covered where we can expect snow through thursday and friday using gfs and nae.

ESS

Edited February 9, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[kold weather]

NMM has shifted westwards, gives some LARGE totals, though to be fair the highest amount of precip forecasted may also get some rain/sleet ahead of the snowline.

Still I'm feeling increasingl concerned about 15-20cms in some parts of C.Midlandsand possibly some parts of W.Midlands, esp the B'ham area.