Significant Snow/Freezing Rain Risk - 9-10th February

[Cheese Rice]

It looks like there may be another spell of significant snowfall across parts of the UK on Wednesday going in to Thursday.

UKMO showing the precipitation bumping into the colder air, block looks like holding so we may see a repeat of Saturday.

Mentioned on the Met Office outlook

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Cold or very cold with widespread overnight frosts and lying snow likely to persist. Often cloudy though still some bright/clear spells. Risk of snow later on Thursday, otherwise largely dry.

Showing on fax chart

Remarkably similar to Saturday with a cold front bumping into a warm front.

Edited February 6, 2012 by Cheese Rice

[Backtrack]

Higher ground event imo.

Anywhere above 200m should do well, but for lower areas, I think it'll be mainly rain.

[Cheese Rice]

Showing on fax chart.

[ZONE 51]

**Snow Watch - 7 Day outlook**

=

Data using GFS and NAE - days 1/2 NAE+GFS - days 3-7 GFS

Day 1 - Monday - risk 45% - parts of EA/SE especially to East-side - light snow/snow showers.

Day 2 - Tuesday - risk 40% - parts of EA/SE /Eastern/Central Areas/Southern England-light snow/flurries/light snow showers.

Day 3 - Wednesday - risk 35% - parts of EA/SE - light snow/light snow showers.

Day 4 - Thursday - risk - 0% - no snow predicted.

Day 5 -Friday - risk - 25% - parts of EA/Midlands/SE and Central Southern - light-moderate snow.

Day 6 - Saturday - risk - 20% - SE - early light snow shower. then no snow anywhere.

Day 7 - Sunday - risk - 15% - Central Scotland - light snow. then no snow anywhere.

-

Above is the first 7 day snow watch starting today.

The risk percentage is given depending on what and how many models indicate snow.

This lowers through the period of 7 days but increases within a more reliable timeframe.(2 days)and the fact that 2 models would usually agree at that stage of timeframe.

An example would be NAE+GFS indicate snow or snow showers of some intensity for day 1, i then would give that 90% risk of happening, day 2 would be 80% for the same indications, if one of the models was on its own in showing snow then i half the percentage for days 1/2, days 3-7 have half as i am using only the GFS alone(or 1 model) for those days.

For day 3/4/5/6/7 as i do not have the NAE for those days (as this is up to 48hrs), then i give that a lower risk of snow, there are other models to use to(NMM..) but here i am using these two only for this, although when we get within 1/2 day timeframe GFS/NAE should agree!

Please Discuss Snow over the coming 7 days

Edited February 6, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Coast]

I think it was Darren Betts on the BBC radio forecast this morning saying he wasn't expecting any more snow this week?

[Alex95]

I'm not expecting any more notable snow this week for anyone - the GFS suggests some snow grains in the SE at times, but other than that any precipitation coming in from the west will fall as rain except from on the tops of the mountains.

[Snowstorm1]

I'm not expecting any more notable snow this week for anyone - the GFS suggests some snow grains in the SE at times, but other than that any precipitation coming in from the west will fall as rain except from on the tops of the mountains.

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Wednesday patchy freezing fog, but also some sunny periods. Thursday and Friday chance of light sleet or snow. Moderate to severe frosts overnight, leading to widespread ice on untreated surfaces.

Updated: 0725 on Mon 6 Feb 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ne/ne_forecast_weather.html

Our area alza met suggest some more snow for us later this week?

[ZONE 51]

(Risk percentage is calculated by GFS indicating snow on its weather type chart and NAE showing precipitation as snow-pink, on its ppn charts - models used for data - days 1/2-NAE and GFS/ days 3-7 GFS)

**Snow Watch - 7 Day outlook**

Day 1 - Tuesday - risk - 45% - EA and SE-maybe further into Southern parts/East Midlands-possible West/South areas of the NE-light snow-light snow showers

Day 2 - Wednesday - risk - 40% - Eastern half of the East Midlands/EA/SE-light snow - light snow showers/flurries.

50% - Some Western/Central areas of Scotland-light snow as rain belt moves in.

Day 3 - Thursday - risk - 35% - Southern/Eastern Scotland-light snow.

Kent/far SE-light snow/light snow showers

Day 4 - Friday - risk - 30% - Central and Western Scotland-then spreading to other Southern/Eastern areas of Scotland-light snow then moderate snow.

Eastern half of Kent/EA - light snow/light snow showers/flurries

Day 5 - Saturday - risk - 25% - Southern and maybe Eastern parts of Scotland-light snow.

North West and maybe North East England/North/Mid Wales-light snow

Day 6 - Sunday - risk - 20% - Mid Wales/Eastern areas of the East Midlands-light snow

Day 7 - Monday - risk - 0% - No snow predicted anywhere

Edited February 7, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

(Risk percentage is calculated by GFS indicating snow on its weather type chart and NAE showing precipitation as snow-pink, on its

ppn charts - models used for data - days 1/2-NAE and GFS/ days 3-7 GFS)

**Snow Watch - 7 Day outlook**

Day 1 - Tuesday - risk - 45% - EA and SE-maybe further into Southern parts/East Midlands-possible West/South areas of the NE-light

snow-light snow showers

Day 2 - Wednesday - risk - 40% - Eastern half of the East Midlands/EA/SE-light snow - light snow showers/flurries.

50% - Scotland-light snow as rain belt moves in.

Day 3 - Thursday - risk - 35% - Southern/Eastern Scotland-light snow. - Kent/far SE-light snow/light snow showers

Day 4 - Friday - risk - 30% - Central and Western Scotland-then spreading to other Southern/Eastern areas of Scotland-light snow then

moderate snow. - Eastern half of Kent/EA - light snow/light snow showers/flurries

Day 5 - Saturday - risk - 25% - Southern and maybe Eastern parts of Scotland-light snow. - North West and maybe North East England-

light snow-. North/Mid Wales-light snow

Day 6 - Sunday - risk - 20% - Mid Wales/Eastern areas of the East Midlands-light snow

Day 7 - Monday - risk - 0% - No snow predicted anywhere

[A Winter's Tale]

(Risk percentage is calculated by GFS indicating snow on its weather type chart and NAE showing precipitation as snow-pink, on its ppn charts - models used for data - days 1/2-NAE and GFS/ days 3-7 GFS)

**Snow Watch - 7 Day outlook**

50% - Some Western/Central areas of Scotland-light snow as rain belt moves in.

Day 3 - Thursday - risk - 35% - Southern/Eastern Scotland-light snow.

Kent/far SE-light snow/light snow showers

Day 4 - Friday - risk - 30% - Central and Western Scotland-then spreading to other Southern/Eastern areas of Scotland-light snow then moderate snow.

Eastern half of Kent/EA - light snow/light snow showers/flurries

Really?

[kold weather]

ECM gives a snow event Thursday night through to Friday through an arc starting in the NE and digging down the W.Midlands, very slow moving as well...so its certainly possible that we do have a snow event to keep an eye on.

[Snowy Easterly]

ECM gives a snow event Thursday night through to Friday through an arc starting in the NE and digging down the W.Midlands, very slow moving as well...so its certainly possible that we do have a snow event to keep an eye on.

looks like the PPN gets all the way to the east, will it be cold enough though, UKMO has me under -4 uppers

[ZONE 51]

(Risk percentage is calculated by GFS indicating snow on its weather type chart and NAE showing precipitation as snow-pink, on its

ppn charts - models used for data - days 1/2-NAE and GFS/ days 3-7 GFS)

**Snow Watch - 7 Day outlook** - 8th February-(data-18z)

Day 1 - Wednesday - risk - 45%-East Anglia/Eastern side of the East Midlands-light snow

90%-Southeast England(mostly early morning)-light snow

45%-Western then Eastern Scotland-light snow

Day 2 - Thursday - risk - 40%-Southern and Eastern Scotland-light snow maybe moderate in East.

Areas of Northern England-40%-Parts of NW England-light snow.

80%- NE England/East Midlands maybe the West Midlands areas-light snow maybe moderate snow.

(NAE-not available for +1800hrs for following areas)-40%-Parts of northeastern or east areas of South West England/Central Southern/SE England/Eastern England(EA)-light snow.

(potential snow event)

Day 3 - Friday - risk - 35%-East Midlands/East Anglia and the Southeast-moderate snow.

(potential snow event)

35%-Central Southern and northeastern or east areas of South West England-light snow

Day 4 - Saturday - risk - 30%-East Midlands/Central Southern England/East Anglia and the Southeast-light snow(maybe further west of these areas to)

Day 5 - Sunday - risk - 25%- Central Southern England/Midlands/some parts of the SE/EA/eastern parts of Southwest England-light snow

Day 6 - Monday - risk - 20%-Western Scotland-light snow

Day 7 - Tuesday - risk - 10%- Scotland-light snow/light snow showers/Parts of Northern England/Wales-light snow-snow showers-EA

and SE-light snow.

[ZONE 51]

data for latest 7 day snow watch is 18z tuesday.

[Dan the Man]

Carol K on BBC just said there is potential for significant snowfall across the Midlands and possibly further South as well as Wales on Thursday night going into Friday. Possible 20cm. Where did this come from?!

[summer blizzard]

Certainly a swift move given that i was forecasting nothing yesterday and now have 24 hours of precipitation.

Unfortunately the GFS and BBC both give me sleet at 1C all the way through.

Any chance of a detailed analysis?

What does the NAE and NMM say?

[trisnow]

To knowledgeable folk here - What's the latest we expect this to "firm up" in terms of where the snow is likely to fall? 12 Hours out do we think? And from a IMBY perspective, what do I need to be looking for on the charts for more of a chance of Sheffield to see snow? Do I need to be watching the 850 charts for an eastward trend or is it a lot more complex than that. (Excuse my noobness)

Thanks!

Edited February 8, 2012 by trisnow

[kold weather]

Very uncertain set-up tomorrow eveing and into Friday, the models seem to be quite keen on developing a snow area over the eastern counties ad through the North-Sea.

The whole area is forecasted to move SSW with snow highly likely to the NW of London, up through the Midlands + N/W parts of EA as well as some eastern counties including possibly Yorkshire. Much more uncertain evolution for places further west, especialy the NW where dew points and surface conditions look decent but upper temps aren't as condusive, so it appears possible that Freezing rain will be a BIG risk with this set-up. SE is a tough call, for places west of London probably some snow, further east maybe a dusting but not much is forecasted at the moment.

[Lewis]

Hi here's my take on things, just posted it on the Yorkshire & Lincs thread

Having looked at the models there is slight upgrades for tomorrow, the main upgrades being East Yorkshire, and Lincolnshire holding on to major elements that will aid snowfall, these being the 0c Isotherm (freezing level) and also dew points "although they may become marginal at times".

At the moment, the NMM is in range, and it's picking everything up, but I'm just waiting for my netweather extra to be upgraded, so at the moment I can only access certain lower resolution output, and very few higher outputs from the NMM, should be fixed by tonight hopefully.

The culprit for tomorrows weather is a weather system pushing south from Scotland/Northern England overnight tonight and during the early hours of tomorrow morning, with this is plenty of precipitation, rather slow moving and heavy at times.

Above Chart* Shows a system across us, with HP to the East

The band of precipitation should be knocking on our doors come 7-8am tomorrow, initially the heaviest of the precipitation will be across the far NE, Tyne & Wear/Newcastle area. With the heavier precipitation then affecting Northern Yorkshire, running down through to West Yorkshire, and later South Yorkshire come 2-4pm tomorrow.

As you can see on the above chart, the precipitation will be rather scattered, with heavier precipitation scattered quite widely. The main area of interest is the development out in the North Sea off Eastern Coastal areas of Yorkshire, heading into Lincolnshire.

The band is enabled to pickup more moisture off the North Sea, timing is still to be decided, and it will come down to "now casting" but the colder air should start to fight back from the East.

As this happens. the band of precipitation will stall and center it's self across the whole of Yorkshire and N Lincolnshire, West Yorkshire, N Yorkshire, and NW England.

The upper 850's are very marginal at the moment, but for Eastern areas, 0 to -1/-2 upper 850's is supportive for snowfall, but you need other conditions in favor, for example the 0c Isotherm (which basically means the height at which the temperature is 0c). Current output suggests a 150-200m 0c Isotherm level, dropping down to around 100m at times. I would call this variable "supportive" the Isotherm level will always drop in heavier precipitation anyhow, so given the precipitation is heavy, and not light patchy, it will make the Isotherm level fine throughout.

Dew points are the next thing. I'll get a more accurate output when I have full access to all the NW extra charts tonight, but at the moment dew points go from "O.K" to "Borderline".

They do between some frames, become the wrong side of marginal, and given the resolution not being the highest, they will be more marginal than that chart actually shows at times.

Below is the UK Max temperature for tomorrow at 3pm;

As you can see, day time max's of 2c for far eastern coastal location, 0-1c for areas further inland.

My conclusion for tomorrow, based on the current 06z output, is that Northern, Western and Southern parts of Yorkshire, will initially start with freezing rain, Northern and Western Yorkshire will stay as rain/sleet at best throughout.

Chance of South Yorkshire having precipitation turning to snow during tomorrow night and early hours of Friday when the colder air from the East tries to shunt back westwards.

Eastern Yorkshire and N Lincolnshire, where conditions are more favorable, although for me too marginal to give a decisive decision, will see precipitation mainly as sleet, rain, with wet snow during the heaviest bursts, then possibly later into the day, and early evening/overnight into Friday precipitation may turn to full snow.

Will do another update later on the 12z output if there's any change.

Regards,

Lewis

[shedhead]

Very uncertain set-up tomorrow eveing and into Friday, the models seem to be quite keen on developing a snow area over the eastern counties ad through the North-Sea.

The whole area is forecasted to move SSW with snow highly likely to the NW of London, up through the Midlands + N/W parts of EA as well as some eastern counties including possibly Yorkshire. Much more uncertain evolution for places further west, especialy the NW where dew points and surface conditions look decent but upper temps aren't as condusive, so it appears possible that Freezing rain will be a BIG risk with this set-up. SE is a tough call, for places west of London probably some snow, further east maybe a dusting but not much is forecasted at the moment.

Yes, looks to me as if freezing rain could well be a major issue across much of N England in particular. It can be bad/dangerous enough when light and patchy, but get any intensity to it and it can be absolutely lethal... lets hope it does not turn out to be as bad as feared.

[johnholmes]

yes its an uncertain event for those areas at risk; for here it looks more marginal than the last event and height will play a part this time.

Just watching the changes shown on TV BBC1 and the area at 1330 appeared to have shrunk compared to that shown on Breakfast this morning. No doubt it will show a further change this evening and again tomorrow morning. Predicting snow is very difficult in the UK.

[kold weather]

Yes Shedhead, it is a real concern to me as well. The ECM is suggesting snow instead for the NW but I suspect given the GFS nailed the upper temps further out than the other models, I trust its forecast with regards to that aspect.

Think the Midlands, especially further east will probably get some decent snowfall...

[username home]

planned to drive from kingston to glasgow on thursday night.... thinking that i may need to postpone...

interested to hear peoples thoughts....

[kold weather]

I think thats going to be a difficult journey to be honest username, given you'll have to drive through the heart of the snowzone that may get a decent amount of snow.

You could I suppose take a longer route and stay well west but even then you'd probably still get snow/freezing rain.

[TEITS]

At the moment the area I have highlighted appears at main risk. This is based on the NAE/GFS 0/06Z runs.

The reason this area is highlighted is for two reasons. Firstly conditions appear condusive for snow rather than sleet/rain. The other reason is the models suggest a band of heavier precip is going to push SSW across Lincs/Wash.

Bound to change and I shall adjust the map accordingly with each run.