892 replies to this topic

[lancs_northants]

Sweet spot for me would be Cambs and Beds. fingers crossed 30 miles west we might be still in the all snow event.

[ANYWEATHER]

shezale, on 03 February 2012 - 08:16 , said:

Would coventry be a good spot for the snow staying as snow and a good dumping??

Youre in the firing Line mate.....Ian.

[THE EYE IN THE SKY]

lancs_northants, on 03 February 2012 - 08:19 , said:

Sweet spot for me would be Cambs and Beds. fingers crossed 30 miles west we might be still in the all snow event.

Yes still looking very good in my opinion for Northants. Even if the models are identical tomorrow morning you still have to take into account the front might be slightly further W than predicted i.e 50miles.

When looking at the radar its going to be interesting watching for signs of the front slowing and then stalling.

[kold weather]

lancs_northants, on 03 February 2012 - 08:19 , said:

Sweet spot for me would be Cambs and Beds. fingers crossed 30 miles west we might be still in the all snow event.

Yeah that sounds reasonable to me, should be far enough east to keep snow the whole way through but also far enough west to get the front still at its strongest.

Anyway we seem to have arrived at a decent agreement now on the models with the west probably seeing a snow-rain event, central/eastern areas that sees the snow arrive overnight will see totally snow. Still a little uncertainty over the SE with regards to where it will stall. Models suggests just oiffshiore but it'd only take 50 mile shift west to breing Kent and EA into play with regards to the stalled solution, though by that time the system will be weakening fast anyway...

[lancs_northants]

THE EYE IN THE SKY, on 03 February 2012 - 08:29 , said:

Yes still looking very good in my opinion for Northants. Even if the models are identical tomorrow morning you still have to take into account the front might be slightly further W than predicted i.e 50miles.

When looking at the radar its going to be interesting watching for signs of the front slowing and then stalling.

I believe you saw snow flakes last night i Watched them fizzle out as they left P/boro and headed down the road to us.

[chicken soup]

Can i expect anything in blackburn , im clinging on to the fact that were in the east of lancashire, but im probably straw clutching.

[THE EYE IN THE SKY]

lancs_northants, on 03 February 2012 - 08:32 , said:

I believe you saw snow flakes last night i Watched them fizzle out as they left P/boro and headed down the road to us.

Yes indeed mate although it was slightly frustrating because the heavier showers were just 10miles N of me.

[Zakos]

My area looking the prime area for snow.models have handled this battleground scenario well tbh, my area has been forecast to be the prime position for days now.gfs still wants to push the cold away too quickly. Something like the ECM/NAE is what i would expect for the weekend. I'll still of course be watching the radar, as its almost imossible to predict where the most intense and heavy snowfall is going to be. Its safe to say saturday night is going to be a late one for me.

[Tellow]

ANYWEATHER, on 03 February 2012 - 08:23 , said:

Youre in the firing Line mate.....Ian.

Am I in the firing line too?

[Mr_Data]

A complete hunch but I get the feeling it is going to come in slower than forecast. Probably wrong but I wouldn't be surprised if there is a twist to this.

Edited by Mr_Data, 03 February 2012 - 08:44 .

[THE EYE IN THE SKY]

Zakos, on 03 February 2012 - 08:40 , said:

Its safe to say saturday night is going to be a late one for me.

Good thing is we should see the snow arrive between 6-9pm.

[Coast]

Along with all the Netweather stuff, I use these guys as they have been pretty consistent for the last couple of years in the 2 to 3 day beforehand period:

http://www.snow-fore...maps/dynamic/uk

I've never seen an orange (heavy) area for the South before and this is very encouraging:

Snowfall for 6 hrs ending Sun 05 Feb at 0am GMT

Snowfall for 6 hrs ending Sun 05 Feb at 6am GMT

Pull back the curtains Sunday morning and be prepared to be delighted!!!

[SnowTornado]

Carol had it turning to rain areas west of leicester roughly, very much on the edge where i am, lets hope we get a slight shift west to give more of us at least something to wake upto sunday.

I find it highly annoying when they say if you want to find out more head to the website, you go on there and the latest forecast was uploaded at 12:32 yesterday which in situations like this is very much out of date

Edited by SnowTornado, 03 February 2012 - 08:51 .

[i luv snow]

People keep talking about a shift west with the ppn but we have seen no such thing in the models so far - consistently showing East Midlands AND EA and SE pasted, every run in the past 24 hours has shown a long period of snow across the whole SE with heavier snow at first but then a more sustained period of lighter snow - with no sign of front stalling further west. So very exciting times imo!

Of course it will be a case of nowcasting once the front moves in, and seeing where it stalls etc, potential for a touch further west but not drastically so imo.

Edited by i luv snow, 03 February 2012 - 08:58 .

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

TobyT, on 03 February 2012 - 07:38 , said:

BBC local forecast for the east saying 5-10 cm in most areas possibly more in some places Sat night into Sunday morning, latest model runs going with cold air winning out next week here in the east with mild Atlantic air being held to our west.

I must admit I think they are programming it too far East.

I'd be more than a little surprised if this part of Norfolk got much. Hope I'm wrong

[kold weather]

Mr_Data, on 03 February 2012 - 08:42 , said:

A complete hunch but I get the feeling it is going to come in slower than forecast. Probably wrong but I wouldn't be surprised if there is a twist to this.

Wouldn't be too much of a shock. Despite the models holding firm IF it is going to go differently than the models expect this is how it will happen.

It may not be a bad thing as it'll probably help more areas to keep snow. Simply put the longer the front comes in the greater the chance of central areas keeping snow...I think the west will struggle given the timings even if there is a delay.

[SnowTornado]

http://www.metcheck....EE/warnings.asp

interesting from metcheck, not that there very reliable mind, they place the far south and south east at low risk

[Zakos]

THE EYE IN THE SKY, on 03 February 2012 - 08:46 , said:

Good thing is we should see the snow arrive between 6-9pm.

. Ah im at work till 9.30pm! I think ill call in sick tomorrow, for a day of radar watching and lampost staring yes we both look great for this snow event

[kold weather]

For you guys who have Netweather Extra, the NMM noiw goes out to 48hrs on the 00z run!

So take a look!

Anyway the conclusion from it is a great snowfall event for central and eastern areas, further west more of a snow-rain event but some places, especially on higher ground could keep snow right till the back edge.

GREAT run though for most!

My journey home from work would be interesting if the NMM was right, snoew would be just starting!

[jethro]

Straw clutch coming up...

The METO forecast for here last night was temp of -5, the actual temp was -9.5. Will this under estimation of temps have any impact on the incoming snow and give us in the West more hope of seeing/keeping snow rather than it turning to rain?