45 replies to this topic

[bobbydog]

[TonyH]

Weather guide Sunday February 26th to Saturday March 3rd (west Wales and central Midlands focused)

Headline: Mild to very mild and mostly dry. Disappointingly cloudy for west Wales.

Spring is making an early appearance this year! On Thursday Coleshill, Warwickshire, was the warmest place in the UK, reaching an amazing 18.7c, this 11c above normal, and close to a February all time record. Nothing so spectacular in west Wales, although Llanwnnen managed 14c.

Winter has been on the dry side for the Midlands, only 120mm falling at Rugby in the past 3 months, compared with 383mm for Llanwnnen which is close to the average. A fairly mild Winter overall- especially for west Wales, few of us seeing even a single day of snow cover.

This week sees more Springlike weather, more unseasonably high temperatures for February mid week, and with high pressure close to the south or south-east predominantly dry, at least for the Midlands.

High pressure is close to southern England Sunday to Monday, although fronts will cross more central and northern parts bringing bands of rain there. Mostly cloudy for west Wales, with a little light rain or drizzle at times Sunday evening and during Monday. The central Midlands staying generally dry, even with a little sunshine. Quite windy on Monday, and mild at 11 or 12c maxima.

During Tuesday and Wednesday the high gradually transfers east into the near Continent with very, even exceptionally mild, sub Tropical air wafting over us again. Unfortunately for Ceredigion it is a moist air flow off the Atlantic once more, so although very mild (maxima 12 to 14c), plenty of cloud will threaten the odd drizzly shower. For Warwickshire, the cloud breaks to give sunny spells, with temperatures challenging this weeks, reaching 15 to 18c on Tuesday and Wednesday. Less breezy mid week.

On Thursday it looks like a weakening trough of low pressure moves into the high, bringing some rain, especially to west Wales, and it will be a cooler, cloudier day for the Midlands, although probably not much rain again. A long way off, but it may be clear enough behind this trough to give many places a ground frost on Thursday night.

A more unsettled look to the end of the week charts, although Friday could well be mostly dry and bright. More active fronts attempt to bring rain bands across all areas next weekend, however, it could be that high pressure asserts to our south once more to kill this off yet again for the MIdlands, so we'll see!


For supportive model charts:

http://forum.netweat...54#entry2276054

[TonyH]

Ah alone with my thoughts...again!

My take on the coming week albeit biased to west Wales and the central Midlands:


Weather guide Sunday 4th to Saturday 10th March

Headline: Cold and probably wet Sunday, dry early next week, then changeable with some rain, but mild

Most of us saw some pleasant Spring weather at times last week, and on Friday Ceredigion was the warmest part of the UK, Llanwnnen reaching 15c, some 6c above the early March average. We are not likely to see temperatures as high in the coming week. Some much needed rain probable for the Midlands tomorrow.

Small lows heading for the South-west approaches of the UK are notoriously difficult beasts to forecast. They often contain locally very wet weather, and tend to drag colder air around their northern flanks. Due to margins of error with the modelling of their expected tracks, forecasts are liable to go wrong even a few hours ahead! At this time of the year, if the low tracks across southern England or Wales, then these areas get a very wet spell, perhaps even with some snow eventually, but should the low track a mere hundred miles or so further south over northern France then the much of Wales and the MIdlands would end up with a dry day. So ,let's see how Sunday pans out!

It is exactly this scenario that we are faced with on Sunday (a forecaster's nightmare or was that challenge!).
My stab is that the low will cross the far south of England during Sunday, with heavy rain extending up across south and mid Wales and much of the Midlands. North Wales and the far north Midlands will see a cloudy but mostly dry day, apart from perhaps a little rain at times. It will be a cold, raw day, temperatures reaching just 5 or 6c, and with colder northerly winds digging in behind this feature then the rain may turn to sleet or wet snow during the afternoon, especially over high ground such as the Brecon Beacons and the Cotswolds. Such are the margins of error, that Warwickshire could get anything between 5mm and 20mm of rain tomorrow, the difference between a damp day and a really wet one! The precipitation will probably clear west Wales by mid afternoon, but persists into the evening for Warwickshire.

Sunday night will see clearing skies leading to a ground frost, especially west Wales. The low is close to the east coast on Monday so quite a cold day with a fresh north wind, sunny spells and perhaps a few showers. Temperatures struggling to reach 8c.
Frosty on Monday night, with Tuesday being a pleasant, mostly sunny and dry day, temperatures a bit higher at around 10c. Atlantic fronts bring cloud and rain overnight Tuesday and first thing Wednesday. Brighter Wednesday afternoon with some showers, especially for west Wales, and a cool west wind.

For the end of the week, high pressure is tantalising close to our south- though perhaps not close enough to prevent weak troughs bringing bands of cloud and a little rain at times. So Thursday to Saturday seems breezy and milder but fairly dry, temperatures reaching 11 to 13c with no night frosts.

Supportive model charts here:
http://forum.netweat...on/page__st__60

[TonyH]

Weather guide Sunday 11th to Saturday 17th March (for west Wales and the central Midlands)


Headline: Mostly dry and very mild, or warm even! Variable cloud, sunny spells, especially mid week. Rain possible Friday to Saturday, and cooler

March has came in like a Lamb this year once more...funny how our best weather has often occurred during Spring over recent years. Even better conditions for all this week with a large high dominating, until the threat of some rain comes from Friday.

On Sunday high pressure has edged up and sits over southern UK for the first half of the week. The first 3 days of the week are dry and very mild, even warm depending on sunshine. It looks as though this high could be containing plenty of cloud within it, so variable and perhaps large amounts of cloud but with some good sunny spells locally also. Light and variable breezes, very mild for March up to 14c to 16c widely, and potentially even warmer given decent amounts of sunshine. Probably the cloud preventing overnight ground frosts from forming for the most part, although morning mist or fog could be a bit of a feature through to mid week.


On Wednesday and Thursday the high slips east into the near Continent, it continues dry, and with a southerly breeze it is warm with more in the way of sunshine. Temperatures higher, reaching 16c to 19c, very high for mid March! It may, however, cool off across west Wales later on Thursday as the wind turns more south-westerly bringing cloudier skies.


The end of the week is cooler with SW to west winds. Cloudier with some sunny intervals, also some rain or showers about perhaps? Maximum temperatures down closer to average between 11c and 13c.

Edited by TonyH, 10 March 2012 - 18:17 .

[TonyH]

New home for my weekly guides:
http://forum.netweat...lands-specific/

[Gavin D]

Some cracking temperatures been shown by GFS again tonight

Edited by Gavin D, 24 March 2012 - 16:50 .