23 replies to this topic

[Roger J Smith]

Have more fun than you could possibly imagine by predicting the lowest temperature at any official UK (metoffice) site, as reported on their website, to be recorded at any time during the climate day periods for Thursday 2nd to Saturday 4th. You can look into exactly what times those are, would imagine not too far off the calendar day.

Your entry should predict the value, location and time.

I will score them equally, we'll make this informal but it will be points off for errors in value by 0.1 deg, location by distance, and time in hours.

My entry will be

-15.5 ... Odiham ... Friday 08z

Deadline 0100h Thursday (you can enter later anyway, penalties 10% per hour late)

Further amuse us with predictions of anything else not to be scored or compared.

Note locations in Scotland will not be accepted, and guesses north of Manchester will be considered somewhat bad form but give it a try if you must.

[greybing]

Roger J Smith, on 01 February 2012 - 05:03 , said:

Have more fun than you could possibly imagine by predicting the lowest temperature at any official UK (metoffice) site, as reported on their website, to be recorded at any time during the climate day periods for Thursday 2nd to Saturday 4th. You can look into exactly what times those are, would imagine not too far off the calendar day.

Your entry should predict the value, location and time.

I will score them equally, we'll make this informal but it will be points off for errors in value by 0.1 deg, location by distance, and time in hours.

My entry will be

-15.5 ... Odiham ... Friday 08z

Deadline 0100h Thursday (you can enter later anyway, penalties 10% per hour late)

Further amuse us with predictions of anything else not to be scored or compared.

Note locations in Scotland will not be accepted, and guesses north of Manchester will be considered somewhat bad form but give it a try if you must.

i dont get the last bit of your writing ,why is it bad form to go above manchester.Its ok, im happy being thick,lets just accept it.Anyway ,fire away

Edited by greybing, 01 February 2012 - 05:23 .

[greybing]

greybing, on 01 February 2012 - 05:11 , said:

i dont get the last bit of your writing ,why is it bad form to go above manchester

oh and it will be woodford ,manchester ,prob Fri,-16.7 8.15 am ,oh sorry ,you said met site ,station,thingy,whatsitsname ,well i dont know,is there one there .Woodford aerodrome,possibly.

Edited by greybing, 01 February 2012 - 05:22 .

[greybing]

ifnot that then isle of sky ,wed 12.pm,-18.6789504937257596[just thought id be exact,wouldn't want to get a fraction wrong]

Edited by greybing, 01 February 2012 - 05:26 .

[greybing]

so thick ive not linked all these posts.

[SP1986]

I'm not sure anywhere will get below -10C nevermind -15C now.

I think perhaps somewhere in the Highlands, like Inverness.

-8C in South Wales somewhere?

[Stormmad26]

Why is it bad to go north of Manchester (Or Scotland not counted?) Tonight looks colder in more Northern parts to me with similar temps to the souh today, but calmer winds overnight with clear sky (whereas the south has more of a breeze), and also areas with deep valleys (I.e the Lake District) could be coldest somewhere like Shap tonight IMO.

The south should be calm enough tomorrow night for a rapid temp drop, and maybe Friday night (though this seems to be increasingly eroded more on the latest runs towards the west)

I can't really see temps of -15C anywhere either without any real snow cover, Though I think Benson got down to something like -12C in early January 2009 with similar uppers and high pressure.

Therefore I think I'll go for: -11.5C, Benson, 8am on Friday the 3rd, though It may be close the next night too..

[Backtrack]

-10.6C - Shap.

[Weather Ship]

Shawbury ....-10C.......Friday 0700z

[Roger J Smith]

Maybe it won't be bad form after all ... the models seem to be pulling back on the depth of cold but anyway, have a go ... at me or the contest.

[A Scottish Winter's Tale]

UK? Looks like Scotland will go down to below -10C tonight and BBC said that Scotland would be the coldest place due to the higher place.

Anyway, I'll go for -8C, Benson

Coldest in the UK to be -12C in Loch Glascarnoch.

[Aaron]

An amateur station in the north Highlands could get to -10C tonight

[damianslaw]

BBC say somewhere in Highlands could see -10 degrees tonight, loch glasgarnoch, aboyne likely candidates.

Tomorrow night looks colder for England and Wales, but hard to say where may see coldest temp. Without snow cover temps unlikely to get lower than -10 degrees, I'll go for -9 degrees in Benson or Pershore.

As for tonight its already -6 degrees in Shap - so who knows Shap could get down to -10 degrees. Here -8 degrees easily achievable its a bone chilling one.. Cumbria the coldest part of england tonight.

[Hairy Celt]

-20C, Tampere, Finland. Oh hang on, sorry...

[Stormmad26]

Roger J Smith, on 01 February 2012 - 20:38 , said:

Maybe it won't be bad form after all ... the models seem to be pulling back on the depth of cold but anyway, have a go ... at me or the contest.

Sorry, I wasn't meaning to come across in any bad way, I was just generally wondering and for some reason it didn't really cross my mind that the models had drawn back from the more severe cold slightly.

[Interitus]

Somewhere with a bit of snow cover like Sennybridge, possibly -10 tonight if the wind drops out

[Stargazer]

-9.8, Eskdalemuir, Friday morning.

Interesting to see your choice of Odiham, Roger - it's actually a fairly exposed open site and I don't think it usually experiences any extremes in the way that the Benson frost hollow, for example, does.

[Roger J Smith]

Well so far, the lowest temperature early Thursday was -9.4 C at Shap (0700 was the coldest hourly at -9.2).

As of time of writing, there are quite a few places scattered all around England and Wales heading below -6 C so ... would not be at all surprised if a revision of that -9.4 C is needed.

I chose Odiham thinking of Benson, pretty sure. Whoops. But it does seem to be almost as cold right now, Bedford and Lyneham are in with a shout, possibly places in Wales ... so we shall see. A bit of snow cover was in my thinking too and there is none of that in the south yet. Friday night will probably remain too cloudy for snow cover to help beat the value reached, but if some place were to get snow on Friday afternoon then clear up, ???

[greybing]

got a -4.6 at my house thurs night so i'd imagine closer to -10 just out of the suburbs.I think it wil be a colder night tonight.What with the humidity being so low though there is still not really tha much frost.Currently in my un central heated flat it is 9 c,when i got it it was 5c. BRR.Im fully kittted out in my otside garb.INSIDE.

Edited by greybing, 03 February 2012 - 16:37 .

[Stargazer]

There were a few -10s posted early this morning in the usual places (Benson etc.) Will be interested to see what the actual lowest was and where. Minimum here was -5.9, with -5.8 at Reading University (my garden is lower and more sheltered but in a more built-up area and usually experiences higher minima unless it's very clear and still).