156 replies to this topic

[Cheese Rice]

I thought average maxes were around 6.c?

Anyway around 50% snow cover here, some streets thick with snow on all surfaces while others patchy. 8-14cm fell from Saturdays cold front, so I'd say around 4-5cm left. 100% snow cover in my garden, shaded by the trees.

Temperatures since the 27th have been below average.

27th: 4/0.c
28th: 4/-1.c
29th: 1/-1.c
30th: 2/-1.c
31st: 0/-1.c

1st: 2/-1.c
2nd: 0/-2.c
3rd: 1/-4.c
4th: -1/-3/c
5th: 3/0.c
6th: 5/-1.c
7th: 2/-5.c

It seems we have had quite a run of cold temperatures, three ice days, eight days managed maxes no higher than 2.c.

All eyes on what Friday brings, GFS says yes for the south east. ECM says yes for Yorkshire/Midlands/NW England etc.



Will have to wait for the NAE. I don't trust the GFS one bit so until the we are 48 hours out there will be many more changes to come.

Edited by Cheese Rice, 08 February 2012 - 00:34 .

[summer blizzard]

Aaron, on 07 February 2012 - 20:45 , said:

I wouldn't call it a very cold spell. I'm quite disappointed - the snowfall we got was great, just a shame it's now so patchy. But, I guess, with the near continent being so cold, I just feel cheated

Our daily means have actually been at or below 0C other than Monday.

I think what makes it feel less cold is that it is so dry and there is little wind.

[Cal]

THE EYE IN THE SKY, on 07 February 2012 - 23:45 , said:

A bitter -7C here at the moment.

Pretty good spell for my area so far.We had around 15cm of snow on Saturday night and still have a relatively good cover outside. My max temps since 23rd Jan are below.

klibild.gif

That's the general assesment around here, whilst not quite the 15cm's you have had big boy, we still have around 5-7cm on the ground, generally temps have been well down on the norm for the last week or so and it's set to continue, last year we was spoilt by the low temps and snowfall during late Nov and most of Dec and maybe some have a little empathy for what happened last winter, i dunno, but this for us in the far north east mids it has turned out for the better albeit a reversal of last year!

Why is the entrenched cold so hard to model and predict? Is it that every, single one of the major developed countries find it so hard to forecast due to a lack of data input from certain areas? Is it bliss ignorance that despite ongoing differences, that we cannot share such information from all around the world? Every detail is vital be it from the mid Atlantic or the Siberian Penninsula. Why do the models struggle with a Russian/Siberian high set up so close to mid/west Europe?

Any way back to a possible snow event for some thurs/fri, what is going to happen when the warm front moves across colder continental air?

[johnholmes]

Cal, on 08 February 2012 - 00:35 , said:

Why is the entrenched cold so hard to model and predict? Is it that every, single one of the major developed countries find it so hard to forecast due to a lack of data input from certain areas? Is it bliss ignorance that despite ongoing differences, that we cannot share such information from all around the world? Every detail is vital be it from the mid Atlantic or the Siberian Penninsula. Why do the models struggle with a Russian/Siberian high set up so close to mid/west Europe?

re sharing data, read about the WMO on their web site to see how almost every country exchange all the data they have with everyone else; the only time its stops is in war time. WMO is perhaps the most successful part of the UN-it actually works with co-operation right around the world.
As to why forecasting some weather patterns is so difficult I have no real idea. Its certainly not through lack of data.

link to WMO site
http://www.wmo.int/pages/index_en.html

Edited by johnholmes, 08 February 2012 - 07:46 .

[Isolated Frost]

Currently -5.4c, another day where the mean shouldn't pass 0c here, making a below average feb extremely unlikely.
The first 15 days should be sub-zero in SE England, E Anglia, E Midlands and other parts of Central and Eastern England. Even London could see a sub-zero first half which is surely extremely rare!

Second half I favour retrogression and an eventually ridging GL block, perhaps into Iceland and Scandinavia, with north/north-west winds at times bringing less cold weather from the atlantic. Probably a CET of about 2c looks best, below that in some areas.

[sunny scunny]

Cal, on 08 February 2012 - 00:35 , said:

, i dunno, but this for us in the far north east mids it has turned out for the better albeit a reversal of last year!

I always thought scunny was in N Lincs

[Ferryhill Weather]

Isolated Frost, on 08 February 2012 - 08:09 , said:

Currently -5.4c, another day where the mean shouldn't pass 0c here, making a below average feb extremely unlikely.

Extremely likely ?

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

Hi as a newbie I am very confused about what it takes to get a good fall of snow in the Southwest at this time of year. Is there anybody out there that could explain it layman's terms for us model illiterate people? What's a good set up for snow for us that have only seen 1cm of snow since Dec 2010. running out of time and getting desperate. When posts read that the snow risk is moving West, I get all excited, only to realise that's it's not West enough.

Thanks

[summer blizzard]

SNOW CRYSTAL, on 08 February 2012 - 12:03 , said:

Hi as a newbie I am very confused about what it takes to get a good fall of snow in the Southwest at this time of year. Is there anybody out there that could explain it layman's terms for us model illiterate people? What's a good set up for snow for us that have only seen 1cm of snow since Dec 2010. running out of time and getting desperate. When posts read that the snow risk is moving West, I get all excited, only to realise that's it's not West enough.

Thanks

Basically, you need a front bumping into -5C uppers preferably with low heights and SE winds at the surface.

The alternative is a week of so ago with a wave moving south east.

Also if you get a northerly with the low close enough to the UK then like 25th Nov 05 you can get a lot of snow showers.

So for showers a northerly, fronts needs a SE wind ahead at the surface.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Snow crystal, id say for you a good northerly which we might see next week

[Eugene]

Looking like the models especially GFS were being over progressive on monday regarding the flattening of the pattern early next week, they had westerlies into the north on monday now look at GFS much more amplified and going with mine and a few other thoughts on monday calling no zonality for next week.


http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1381.png

[jean91]

Here are a list of some localities with minimal temps of this morning 8th February. Most in the southern half part of France( not all big cities are on it )
The more noticeable ones are Toulouse at -10c or Mont de Marsan,in the South west France Narbonne At -8c also in the Aude area and near the sea!!! .In the Northeast of France temps were warmer( if i can use this term!!!)
Sorry not translating ( à or aux means in ) number is the département ( county)

• -22°c au Pic du Midi de Bigorre (65) [2880 m d'altitude]
  
• -18.2°c à Aubrac (12)
  
• -18.1°c aux Estables (43)
  
• -16.8°c à Luchon (31)
  
• -16.4°c à Aurillac (15)
  
• -16.1°c à Champagnole (39)
  
• -15.6°c à Saugues (43)
  
• -14.9°c à Digne les Bains (04), Maiche (25)
  
• -14.6°c à Vagney (88)
  
• -14°c à Tallard (05)
  
• -13.9°c à Cornus (12)
  
• -13.6°c à La Mure-Argens (04) et St Girons (09)
  
• -13.5°c à Salles la Source (12)
  
• -13.1°c à Tonnerre Joudre (89), la Souterraine (23), Orsennes (36)
  
• -12.6°c à Le Hohwald (67), Jalogny (71), Escrinet (07)
  
• -12.2°c à Murs (84)
  
• -11.9°c à Bourgoin (38)
  
• -11.7°c à La Bastide Rouairoux (81)
  
• -11.6°c à Guéret Bongeot (23)
  
• -11.4°c à Villardebelle (11), Ligneville (88), Saulgond (16) et Muret-Lherm (31)
  
• -11.1°c à Fayl-Billot (52), St Martial (24), Bernay (27)
  
• -10.9°c à Auch (32)
  
• -10.7°c à Lons le Saunier (39)
  
• -10.6°c à Mont de Marsan (40)
  
• -10.2°c à Toulouse-Blagnac (31)
  
• -10.1°c à Mimet (13), Cirfontaines (52), Orthez (64)
  
• -9.9°c à Rodalbe (57), Rocroi (08)
  
• -9.7°c à Cazats (33)
  
• -9°c à Tours (37)
  
• -8.9°c à Niort (79)
  
• -8°c à Aix en Provence (13), Narbonne (11)
  
• -6.7°c à Capbreton (40)
  
• -5.1°c à Sète (34)

Edited by jean91, 08 February 2012 - 18:57 .

[jean91]

Sorry following my post , the main feature of this morning is the extended cold up to the South west and South east for night temps.Otherwise in the usual colder areas, min temps tend to be on the warmer side.
You can also see the milder area in the center including Paris , where we had a bit of snow and so clouds which limited the temps to fall ,
Around -6c for central Paris to -8c -10 c in suburbs this morning ( locally -11c)
Friday should see the possible first day over freezing temp locally in the suburbs!!!!!! but not certain.

Edited by jean91, 08 February 2012 - 19:03 .

[Isolated Frost]

Ferryhill Weather, on 08 February 2012 - 09:30 , said:

Extremely likely ?

Oops yes- you're right.

[summer blizzard]

Currently -6C in Bingley and the Vale of York, hard to believe we will see freezing rain rather than snow.

[jean91]

Another cold night last night and here is a list of towns or cities ( in brackets numbers mean département)
2 stations broke record of cold since opening and certainly way much longer ( where you see record)
To all sorry don't have time to translate.Some amazing temps in the South west and South:

• -20.7°c à Félines (43)
  
• -19.7°c à Saugues (43)
  
• -19.4°c à Aubusson (23)
  
• -19°c à Ambert (63)
  
• -18°c à La Panouse (48)
  
• -17.9°c à Tendu (36)
  
• -17.5°c à Morteau (25), Levier (25), Chalmazel (42)
  
• -17°c à Genouillac (23), Champagnole (39)
  
• -16.7°c à Romorantin (41)
  
• -16.5°c à Bergerac (24), record absolu (depuis au moins 1988)
  
• -16.5°c à Jeu les Bois (36)
  
• -16.2°c à Pontarlier (25)
  
• -16.1°c à Magnac-Laval (87)
  
• -15.9°c à Auberive (52)
  
• -15.6°c à Aurillac (15)
  
• -15.5°c à Montrieux (41)
  
• -15.1°c à Mauriac (15), Chatillon sur Seine (21)
  
• -15°c à Notre Dame de Bliquetuit (76)
  
• -14.9°c à Vichy-Charmeil (03)
  
• -14.7°c à Barcelonnette (04), Chambrecy (51)
  
• -14.5°c à Rosans (05)
  
• -14.4°c à Cerdon (01)
  
• -14.2°c à Caylus (82)
  
• -14.1°c à St Roman-Diois (26), Juzennecourt (52), Epinal (88)
  
• -14°c à Courpière (63), Erneville (55), Givet (08), Courcite (53)
  
• -13.9°c à Créon-Armagnac (40), Blondefontaine (70)
  
• -13.7°c à St Girons (09), Nevers (58), Cornus (12)
  
• -13.6°c à Agen (47), Gourdon (46), Le Saix (05), Alençon (61), à Le Mans (72)
  
• -13.5°c à Auch (32), record pour février (depuis au moins 1985)
  
• -13.2°c à Romilly (10)
  
• -13.1°c à Castelsarrasin (82)
  
• -12.7°c à Le Luart (72)
  
• -12.6°c à St Martial (24), Digne les Bains (04), Poinville (28), Ectot les Baons (76)
  
• -12.4°c à Prades le Lez (34)
  
• -12.2°c à Toulouse-Blagnac (31), Castres (81), Berg (67)
  
• -12.1°c à Lillers (62)
  
• -11.5°c à St Léger (78)
  
• -11°c à Mont de Marsan (40)
  
• -10.9°c à Albi (81)
  
• -10.1°c à Belin (33), Générargues (30)
  
• -10°c à Fanjeaux (11)
  
• -7.9°c à Aix en Provence (13)

[jean91]

Although it is a rather mild night now lowest temps nearing -12c a good 3/4 of France just below -3cand more much warmer than previous nights.Just nearing -2.5c for my part which is the warmest since start of cold wave for this time at 2300!!!!
Soon i may enjoy a night out on my balcony!!!!!!!!!!!