156 replies to this topic

[kold weather]

Well given we already have fairly cool/cold conditions in place and also given the models seem to be firming up on at least a 3-5 day cold spell next week, I think now is the time to open this thread for general chat and banter about this cold spell.

What are your expectations of the next 7-10 days, do you think we'll see cool/cold conditions or do you expect a very strong easterly blast followed by something equally as cold?

Also what are people's expectations of snowfall, you can talk about the next few days along with the frontal system, as well as the easterly that is being forecasted.

So discuss away folks!!

[Gord]

I think it's too early to think about snowfall other than the very small chance on Sunday. (For here anyway) With cold spells in the past, northerlies and easterlies, snow events always seem to creep up without warning in the models at the last minute. The first week of January 2010 is a good example...we were all ready for a very cold but very dry week (in the West Midlands anyway) and then late on the 3rd I think it was there seemed to be a chance of a snow event which increased in confidence through the 4th. Then we had quite a good covering of snow on the 5th..only 2-3 days after us Midlanders moaned about how we would miss out. Same happened at the end of November 2010. It really looked like we'd stay dry in that easterly...then the streamers pentetrated this far after a couple of days. No more than 5cm but not a bad result considering.

So I'll take the cold spell one day at a time. I did have some interest in Sunday but that's nearly all gone now.

[A Scottish Winter's Tale]

27TH JANUARY 2012 PREDICTION:

I'm going for 75:25 in favour of an easterly of somesorts. 60:40 for an easterly that is potent bringing decent cold and snow and lasting a while. After that, well we might see heights develop over Greenland or the mid atlantic so we could end up having an extended cold spell.

[Mr_Data]

The focus seems to be too much on the easterly and not enough on the possibilities of frontal snowfalls in the near future.

Here's UKMO at 60hrs precipt chart

http://www.meteociel...0-594.GIF?27-17

60hrs 850hpa chart

http://www.meteociel...U60-7.GIF?27-17

Some potential there.

[A Scottish Winter's Tale]

I think there's also a lot of focus on the first batch of high pressure over Scandinavia (there could be more).

So what is everyone's thoughts on high pressure to develop over Greenland/mid Atlantic or to stay put over Scandinavia. Personally, I feel that an easterly is likely and I believe that in having an easterly airflow to beign with, then we could then see some decent cold arrive and then the snow!

[kold weather]

Mr_Data, on 27 January 2012 - 21:30 , said:

The focus seems to be too much on the easterly and not enough on the possibilities of frontal snowfalls in the near future.

Here's UKMO at 60hrs precipt chart

http://www.meteociel...0-594.GIF?27-17

60hrs 850hpa chart

http://www.meteociel...U60-7.GIF?27-17

Some potential there.

Yeah there is, though the UKMO is rather on its own with regards to how it handles the front (it puts alot more energy into the system then both the GFS/ECM do) still most models do suggest some snowfall is possible from the front, providing of course it even gets far enough east.

[Blizzards]

Gord, on 27 January 2012 - 21:26 , said:

I think it's too early to think about snowfall other than the very small chance on Sunday. (For here anyway) With cold spells in the past, northerlies and easterlies, snow events always seem to creep up without warning in the models at the last minute. The first week of January 2010 is a good example...we were all ready for a very cold but very dry week (in the West Midlands anyway) and then late on the 3rd I think it was there seemed to be a chance of a snow event which increased in confidence through the 4th. Then we had quite a good covering of snow on the 5th..only 2-3 days after us Midlanders moaned about how we would miss out. Same happened at the end of November 2010. It really looked like we'd stay dry in that easterly...then the streamers pentetrated this far after a couple of days. No more than 5cm but not a bad result considering.

So I'll take the cold spell one day at a time. I did have some interest in Sunday but that's nearly all gone now.

That was a great evening as a low pivoted over the Midlands with some very heavy falls here for a time. Mind you we had about 12-14cm that day!
Anyway I certainly agree that snow events often appear last minute. Plenty of changes on the snow front to come I think.

[James M]

If things do plan out like the 18z, how much would the pressure being so high affect things? in terms of snowfall? or would the uppers be cold enough to create convection anyway?

[A Scottish Winter's Tale]

Brilliant run for a spell of spectacular winter weather! I think an easterly looks likely, all we need to do now is watch and see how potent it gets, how long it lasts and see whether the high moving south (as in GFS 18z FI) will happen or would high pressure end up over Greenland!

[Mr_Data]

It looks now that we are going to have a cold spell at least up to next Friday going by the charts, coldest in the SE if you look at the 850hpa charts. ECM op run really breaks it down by next weekend but after what has happened recently with the models, I would take that with a large pinch of salt.

Frosty here in west Manchester, so providing cloud cover could have at least 8 consecutive air frosts with this spell

[shedhead]

Mr_Data, on 28 January 2012 - 07:43 , said:

It looks now that we are going to have a cold spell at least up to next Friday going by the charts, coldest in the SE if you look at the 850hpa charts. ECM op run really breaks it down by next weekend but after what has happened recently with the models, I would take that with a large pinch of salt. Frosty here in west Manchester, so providing cloud cover could have at least 8 consecutive air frosts with this spell

The odds of us tapping into the kind of deep, frigid air shown by yesterdays 12 and 18z GFS runs look low to me, but we should still see plenty of fine, dry and relatively cold weather as we go into the new month, with widespread frosts. As for snow, very hit and miss imo and not a lot of it on a national basis, but locally it could be significant at times.

Edited by shedhead, 28 January 2012 - 09:31 .

[Thundery wintry showers]

The GFS 06Z's "very nearly easterly" looks like it would deliver widespread frontal snowfalls, but the version by UKMO/ECM does not have low pressure close by to the west, so a cold and bone dry scenario would most likely result. I am thinking that a full-on easterly with convection over the North Sea now looks unlikely, bar perhaps a scattering of sleet/graupel showers near the east coast on Sunday/Monday.

The frontal system for Sunday/Monday is also worth watching- Wales and SW England look like they have serious potential for snowfall.

[Eugene]

I find it quite unbelievable after an awfully mild winter with no northerly blocking we have a strong scandy high just to our northeast currently and people are moaning and groaning like there is no tomorrow, when i saw all the talk of a possible very cold spell ahead on Sky News and the BBC i thought i would come back on here and see the enthusiasm but all you see are people moaning and groaning.

No wonder people like me stay away more often from this site nowadays, best to just watch the TV forecasts and in my experience scandy highs like on the charts they showed dont just go away overnight

[THE EYE IN THE SKY]

Eugene, on 28 January 2012 - 10:54 , said:

I find it quite unbelievable after an awfully mild winter with no northerly blocking we have a strong scandy high just to our northeast currently and people are moaning and groaning like there is no tomorrow, when i saw all the talk of a possible very cold spell ahead on Sky News and the BBC i thought i would come back on here and see the enthusiasm but all you see are people moaning and groaning.

No wonder people like me stay away more often from this site nowadays, best to just watch the TV forecasts and in my experience scandy highs like on the charts they showed dont just go away overnight

Yes I agree its tiresome.

What really annoys me though is a few days ago the ECM was dreadful and some were saying thats the end of an E,ly. Yesterday we witnessed a massive change in the output. However I can guarantee if a downgrade occurs many will take this as gospel and forget about what happened recently with the ECM. Some still have the attitude that a poor run will always verify but an excellent run will never happen. I understood this mentality a few years ago but I certainly don't now after our recent winters.

Following cold spells in the model output doesn't quiet have the same appeal to me as it used to. Don't get me wrong I would be very excited at a 1987 type E,ly but I suppose after 2009/2010 cold spells the chase is kind of over. This is why I try to be more objective these days and less of a cold ramper!

Edited by THE EYE IN THE SKY, 28 January 2012 - 11:12 .

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

The Scandinavian high is always moved further west than initially projected and the models are always keen to blow it away quickly with low pressure systems that eventually prove not to be as strong as they say they're going to be (or disappear entirely by +48). Nothing has changed. Models are not as accurate in blocking set-ups.

Edited by AtlanticFlamethrower, 28 January 2012 - 11:33 .

[pinball wizard]

Looking at the Fax charts, the UKMO and GFS it looks like this cold spell is going to be of more use for those along the central spine of the country. Too few isobars and slack pressure to the east to get the convection going off the North Sea, but nice frontal encroachment to the west means someone there will get lucky.

I think the important thing is to just keep watching the charts, once the cold is here there is always the chance of surprises and changes to synoptics that enable others to join the party. I'd prefer snow on the ground but if i'm limited to just the odd flurry and an iceday i'll enjoy it. Good luck everyone!

[summer blizzard]

kold weather, on 27 January 2012 - 21:16 , said:

Well given we already have fairly cool/cold conditions in place and also given the models seem to be firming up on at least a 3-5 day cold spell next week, I think now is the time to open this thread for general chat and banter about this cold spell.

What are your expectations of the next 7-10 days, do you think we'll see cool/cold conditions or do you expect a very strong easterly blast followed by something equally as cold?

Also what are people's expectations of snowfall, you can talk about the next few days along with the frontal system, as well as the easterly that is being forecasted.

So discuss away folks!!

In terms of what i expect for the next 7-10 days i suspect that the high to the east will be largely dominant in that from Sunday i certainly expect no precipitation here until at least next Friday and would not be surprised to see the high retain dominance over next weekend.

My thoughts from next weekend onward largely expect some retrogression northward with conditions more conducive to convective potential, i am certainly not sold on the 'battleground' at all.

It is a real shame that the high is just a tad too far south as if pressure was even 10mb lower we could be looking at decent convection, as it is though, any claims of real convection away from the south east are unlikely to come to fruition.

In terms of temperature i suspect that England will be the main feature and if you draw a line connecting Newcastle, Leeds and Birmingham then i suspect anywhere east of this line will be lucky to see maxima above freezing and will certainly see minima well below. The trade off is of course with very high pressure there is unlikely to be snow however it should be sunny and dry.

My thoughts for Sunday/Monday snowfall are that it will almost exclusively be a Welsh event although above about 100m, 10cm widespread is plausible.

[summer blizzard]

Campsie Snow Storm, on 27 January 2012 - 21:34 , said:

I think there's also a lot of focus on the first batch of high pressure over Scandinavia (there could be more).

So what is everyone's thoughts on high pressure to develop over Greenland/mid Atlantic or to stay put over Scandinavia. Personally, I feel that an easterly is likely and I believe that in having an easterly airflow to beign with, then we could then see some decent cold arrive and then the snow!

I believe that a pressure build over Greenland is the most likely scenario although for that to occur we need the jet to dive south next weekend.

[summer blizzard]

James M, on 27 January 2012 - 23:19 , said:

If things do plan out like the 18z, how much would the pressure being so high affect things? in terms of snowfall? or would the uppers be cold enough to create convection anyway?

Pressure will have a significant effect in limiting convection even with cold uppers. I think that the south east may see a few showers when the flow becomes favorable however this will mostly be a dry and cold affair.

[summer blizzard]

Mr_Data, on 28 January 2012 - 07:43 , said:

It looks now that we are going to have a cold spell at least up to next Friday going by the charts, coldest in the SE if you look at the 850hpa charts. ECM op run really breaks it down by next weekend but after what has happened recently with the models, I would take that with a large pinch of salt.

Frosty here in west Manchester, so providing cloud cover could have at least 8 consecutive air frosts with this spell

If we remember back to previous cold spells then in almost all of them we saw the models try to break it down too early (although ECWMF would retain surface cold until day 9). With no real ensemble agreement by that point i suspect that we will see an extension.