Anybody know what the sunniest February on record was?
Some of the outputs look very sunny.
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#121
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Posted 02 February 2012 - 21:21
Summer Blizzard's 2012 winter forecast - 4 on the trot - http://forum.netweat...20#entry2168669!
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#122
damianslaw
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Posted 02 February 2012 - 22:23
summer blizzard, on 02 February 2012 - 21:21 , said:
Anybody know what the sunniest February on record was?
Some of the outputs look very sunny.
Some of the outputs look very sunny.
I think Feb 2008 was one of the sunniest on record thanks to the exceptional anticylonic warm period mid month. Feb can be a sunny and very dry month, it is not a month renowned for stormy atlantic conditions indeed I've known many a drier settled Feb than July.
#123
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Posted 02 February 2012 - 22:34
damianslaw, on 02 February 2012 - 22:23 , said:
I think Feb 2008 was one of the sunniest on record thanks to the exceptional anticylonic warm period mid month. Feb can be a sunny and very dry month, it is not a month renowned for stormy atlantic conditions indeed I've known many a drier settled Feb than July.
February 1998 had a dry sunny and warm spell. Do you know why that happened and what caused it? I'm interested to know.
Edited by Tellow, 02 February 2012 - 22:35 .
Winter 2011-12:
04 Dec, Brief wet snow shower in the evening.
16-17 Dec, Outbreaks of wet snow and sleet.
18 Dec, Heavy snow from 8.30am, stopped at 9.30 but gave a 2cm covering, thawed after lunch.
02 Feb, Light snow showers in the morning, no lying snow.
04 Feb, Light snow beginning around 2:30pm, becoming heavy and settling eventually. Non-stop until midnight, with 9cm depth.
05 Feb, Lying snow of 9cm, slow thaw starting eventually with high temperature of 2.0c.
06 Feb, Patches of snow and slushy snow on roads, rapid thaw underway.
09 Feb, Light snow on-and-off from 6pm, giving a light covering on top of leftovers. Eventually turning to freezing rain later in the evening.
10 Feb, Dusting of snow from flurries overnight.
18 Feb, Sleet showers in the evening.
04 Apr, A return to winter with snow showers all morning.
Days with snow falling: 9 (Dec-Feb)
Days with snow lying (9am): 4 (Dec-Feb)
Max snow depth: 8cm (04/02/2012)
Max temp: 16.0c (23/02/2012)
Min temp: -5.8c (11/02/2012)
04 Dec, Brief wet snow shower in the evening.
16-17 Dec, Outbreaks of wet snow and sleet.
18 Dec, Heavy snow from 8.30am, stopped at 9.30 but gave a 2cm covering, thawed after lunch.
02 Feb, Light snow showers in the morning, no lying snow.
04 Feb, Light snow beginning around 2:30pm, becoming heavy and settling eventually. Non-stop until midnight, with 9cm depth.
05 Feb, Lying snow of 9cm, slow thaw starting eventually with high temperature of 2.0c.
06 Feb, Patches of snow and slushy snow on roads, rapid thaw underway.
09 Feb, Light snow on-and-off from 6pm, giving a light covering on top of leftovers. Eventually turning to freezing rain later in the evening.
10 Feb, Dusting of snow from flurries overnight.
18 Feb, Sleet showers in the evening.
04 Apr, A return to winter with snow showers all morning.
Days with snow falling: 9 (Dec-Feb)
Days with snow lying (9am): 4 (Dec-Feb)
Max snow depth: 8cm (04/02/2012)
Max temp: 16.0c (23/02/2012)
Min temp: -5.8c (11/02/2012)
#124
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Posted 02 February 2012 - 23:24
I will update the table for entries on the first and second after midnight. What's the verdict on Robbie Garrett's dual prediction?
You'd better be right about this mild month, PIT, or I will find a new best friend.
You'd better be right about this mild month, PIT, or I will find a new best friend.
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veni, vidi, snowi
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#125
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Posted 03 February 2012 - 03:14
February CET entries and past highlights, averages
_____________________________________________________
8.0+ .. snow freak (said 12.5 probably in jest)
8.0 .. Craig Evans
7.9 .. mildest (1779)
7.8
7.7
7.6
7.5 .. 2nd mildest (1869)
7.4
7.3 .. 3rd mildest (1990 & 1998)
7.2
7.1
7.0
6.9
6.8
6.7
6.6
6.5
6.4
6.3
6.2
6.1
6.0
5.9 .. Jason M, Robbie Garrett (also guesses 0,9, actual entry up to J-1)
5.8
5.7
5.6
5.5 .. The PIT, Roger J Smith
5.4
5.3 .. Optimus Prime
5.2
5.1 .. snow? norfolk n chance, Mr_Data
5.0 .. Solar Sausage, Scorcher, sundog
4.9 .. stewfox, Bluebreezer54*
4.8 .. reef, mark4**
4.7 .. Mark Bayley
4.6 .. Stargazer**
4.5 .. Tellow, Mark Ox Neal,
4.4 .. Ferryhill Weather ..... ------------ average for 1981-2010 ----------------
4.3 ..
4.2 .. -------- average for 1971-2000 -----------
4.1 .. Duncan McAlister
4.0 .. AderynCoch
(4.0) ... median value of all 352 years 1659-2011 ... the mean is 3.87
3.9 .. Aaron
3.8 .. BARRY, Froze were the Days (was Timmy H)
3.7 .. DR Hosking ..... ------------------- average for 1961-90 -------------------
3.6
3.5 .. djrikki, Thundery Winter Showers
3.4 .. Davehsug
3.3 .. Stormmad26*
3.2 .. coram, Harve, Norrance, Don
3.1 .. Styx, SP1986, Fozfoster, RAIN RAIN RAIN, JackOne
3.0 .. kold weather, Paul T, Jonathan F, feb1991blizzard
2.9 .. Milhouse
2.8 .. Isolated Frost, damianslaw
2.7 .. Jack Wales
2.6 .. DeepSnow
2.5 .. Rainbow Snow, Sunlover, Syed2878
2.4 .. Kentish Man*
2.3 .. Summer Blizzard
2.2 .. SteveB
2.1 .. BornFromTheVoid
2.0 .. Polar Gael, Campsie Snow Storm, TonyH
1.9 .. Burwell Weather Watch
1.8 .. Great Plum**
1.7 .. Polar Maritime, Terminal Moraine
1.6
1.5 .. virtualsphere, godber, AtlanticFlamethrower
1.4 .. letitsnowyorkshire, LomondSnowstorm
1.3
1.2 .. geoffw
1.1 .. TobyT, mutzy
1.0
0.9
0.8 .. max011293
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4 .. frozencanals
0.3 .. Backtrack
0.2 .. Koppite, jonboy, Midlands Ice Age
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4 ..
-0.5 .. Stationary Front, DAVID SNOW
-0.6
-0.7
-0.8 .. snowlover2009
-0.9
-1.0
-1.1 .. coldest since 1947 (1986)
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4
-1.5
-1.6 .. trickydicky
-1.7 .. 3rd coldest (1855)
-1.8 .. 2nd coldest (1895)
-1.9 .. coldest (1947)
-2.0 .. Snowstorm1
-2.1 .. SLEETY
________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________
check your entries, for example with the 1.4 of LomondSnowstorm the entry looks a bit like -1.4, but I checked his blog and there's a dash before all three CET forecasts there.
updated with late entries
* for each day late
change noted for Kentish Man.
_____________________________________________________
8.0+ .. snow freak (said 12.5 probably in jest)
8.0 .. Craig Evans
7.9 .. mildest (1779)
7.8
7.7
7.6
7.5 .. 2nd mildest (1869)
7.4
7.3 .. 3rd mildest (1990 & 1998)
7.2
7.1
7.0
6.9
6.8
6.7
6.6
6.5
6.4
6.3
6.2
6.1
6.0
5.9 .. Jason M, Robbie Garrett (also guesses 0,9, actual entry up to J-1)
5.8
5.7
5.6
5.5 .. The PIT, Roger J Smith
5.4
5.3 .. Optimus Prime
5.2
5.1 .. snow? norfolk n chance, Mr_Data
5.0 .. Solar Sausage, Scorcher, sundog
4.9 .. stewfox, Bluebreezer54*
4.8 .. reef, mark4**
4.7 .. Mark Bayley
4.6 .. Stargazer**
4.5 .. Tellow, Mark Ox Neal,
4.4 .. Ferryhill Weather ..... ------------ average for 1981-2010 ----------------
4.3 ..
4.2 .. -------- average for 1971-2000 -----------
4.1 .. Duncan McAlister
4.0 .. AderynCoch
(4.0) ... median value of all 352 years 1659-2011 ... the mean is 3.87
3.9 .. Aaron
3.8 .. BARRY, Froze were the Days (was Timmy H)
3.7 .. DR Hosking ..... ------------------- average for 1961-90 -------------------
3.6
3.5 .. djrikki, Thundery Winter Showers
3.4 .. Davehsug
3.3 .. Stormmad26*
3.2 .. coram, Harve, Norrance, Don
3.1 .. Styx, SP1986, Fozfoster, RAIN RAIN RAIN, JackOne
3.0 .. kold weather, Paul T, Jonathan F, feb1991blizzard
2.9 .. Milhouse
2.8 .. Isolated Frost, damianslaw
2.7 .. Jack Wales
2.6 .. DeepSnow
2.5 .. Rainbow Snow, Sunlover, Syed2878
2.4 .. Kentish Man*
2.3 .. Summer Blizzard
2.2 .. SteveB
2.1 .. BornFromTheVoid
2.0 .. Polar Gael, Campsie Snow Storm, TonyH
1.9 .. Burwell Weather Watch
1.8 .. Great Plum**
1.7 .. Polar Maritime, Terminal Moraine
1.6
1.5 .. virtualsphere, godber, AtlanticFlamethrower
1.4 .. letitsnowyorkshire, LomondSnowstorm
1.3
1.2 .. geoffw
1.1 .. TobyT, mutzy
1.0
0.9
0.8 .. max011293
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4 .. frozencanals
0.3 .. Backtrack
0.2 .. Koppite, jonboy, Midlands Ice Age
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4 ..
-0.5 .. Stationary Front, DAVID SNOW
-0.6
-0.7
-0.8 .. snowlover2009
-0.9
-1.0
-1.1 .. coldest since 1947 (1986)
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4
-1.5
-1.6 .. trickydicky
-1.7 .. 3rd coldest (1855)
-1.8 .. 2nd coldest (1895)
-1.9 .. coldest (1947)
-2.0 .. Snowstorm1
-2.1 .. SLEETY
________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________
check your entries, for example with the 1.4 of LomondSnowstorm the entry looks a bit like -1.4, but I checked his blog and there's a dash before all three CET forecasts there.
updated with late entries
* for each day late
change noted for Kentish Man.
_______________________________________________________________
veni, vidi, snowi
veni, vidi, snowi
#126
Mr_Data
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Posted 03 February 2012 - 08:51
Tellow, on 02 February 2012 - 22:34 , said:
February 1998 had a dry sunny and warm spell. Do you know why that happened and what caused it? I'm interested to know.
Have a look here
http://forum.netweat...tmare-forecast/
http://forum.netweat...tmare-forecast/
#127
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Posted 03 February 2012 - 17:16
We had a barbeque and sat in our garden on in shorts and t shirts at the weekend following that forecast - I think London got to 20C
Back to the CET
-0.4C to the 2nd. Likely to hover close to the zero mark for a few days unless forecasts are dramatically wrong.
GFS 12z follows the theme of yesterdays CFS with what would likely be a month long cold spell. Long way to go yet but if you have guessed 4C or over, you can probably tear up your betting slip now.
Back to the CET
-0.4C to the 2nd. Likely to hover close to the zero mark for a few days unless forecasts are dramatically wrong.
GFS 12z follows the theme of yesterdays CFS with what would likely be a month long cold spell. Long way to go yet but if you have guessed 4C or over, you can probably tear up your betting slip now.
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#128
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Posted 03 February 2012 - 17:52
Stu_London, on 03 February 2012 - 17:16 , said:
We had a barbeque and sat in our garden on in shorts and t shirts at the weekend following that forecast - I think London got to 20C
Back to the CET
-0.4C to the 2nd. Likely to hover close to the zero mark for a few days unless forecasts are dramatically wrong.
GFS 12z follows the theme of yesterdays CFS with what would likely be a month long cold spell. Long way to go yet but if you have guessed 4C or over, you can probably tear up your betting slip now.
Back to the CET
-0.4C to the 2nd. Likely to hover close to the zero mark for a few days unless forecasts are dramatically wrong.
GFS 12z follows the theme of yesterdays CFS with what would likely be a month long cold spell. Long way to go yet but if you have guessed 4C or over, you can probably tear up your betting slip now.
With pleasure! (I guessed 4.5 when it wasn't looking good)
Edited by Tellow, 03 February 2012 - 17:53 .
Winter 2011-12:
04 Dec, Brief wet snow shower in the evening.
16-17 Dec, Outbreaks of wet snow and sleet.
18 Dec, Heavy snow from 8.30am, stopped at 9.30 but gave a 2cm covering, thawed after lunch.
02 Feb, Light snow showers in the morning, no lying snow.
04 Feb, Light snow beginning around 2:30pm, becoming heavy and settling eventually. Non-stop until midnight, with 9cm depth.
05 Feb, Lying snow of 9cm, slow thaw starting eventually with high temperature of 2.0c.
06 Feb, Patches of snow and slushy snow on roads, rapid thaw underway.
09 Feb, Light snow on-and-off from 6pm, giving a light covering on top of leftovers. Eventually turning to freezing rain later in the evening.
10 Feb, Dusting of snow from flurries overnight.
18 Feb, Sleet showers in the evening.
04 Apr, A return to winter with snow showers all morning.
Days with snow falling: 9 (Dec-Feb)
Days with snow lying (9am): 4 (Dec-Feb)
Max snow depth: 8cm (04/02/2012)
Max temp: 16.0c (23/02/2012)
Min temp: -5.8c (11/02/2012)
04 Dec, Brief wet snow shower in the evening.
16-17 Dec, Outbreaks of wet snow and sleet.
18 Dec, Heavy snow from 8.30am, stopped at 9.30 but gave a 2cm covering, thawed after lunch.
02 Feb, Light snow showers in the morning, no lying snow.
04 Feb, Light snow beginning around 2:30pm, becoming heavy and settling eventually. Non-stop until midnight, with 9cm depth.
05 Feb, Lying snow of 9cm, slow thaw starting eventually with high temperature of 2.0c.
06 Feb, Patches of snow and slushy snow on roads, rapid thaw underway.
09 Feb, Light snow on-and-off from 6pm, giving a light covering on top of leftovers. Eventually turning to freezing rain later in the evening.
10 Feb, Dusting of snow from flurries overnight.
18 Feb, Sleet showers in the evening.
04 Apr, A return to winter with snow showers all morning.
Days with snow falling: 9 (Dec-Feb)
Days with snow lying (9am): 4 (Dec-Feb)
Max snow depth: 8cm (04/02/2012)
Max temp: 16.0c (23/02/2012)
Min temp: -5.8c (11/02/2012)
#129
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Posted 03 February 2012 - 19:58
My first cet prediction of 2.3
If any of my analysis is wrong. Please let me know so i can learn from it.
#130
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Posted 04 February 2012 - 13:09
-0.9C to the 3rd of February.
Another falling day today, but the next few days after that may see the figure rise, but only slightly as it stays on the cold side. Another cold blast forecast for next weekend, but very much FI at present.
Another falling day today, but the next few days after that may see the figure rise, but only slightly as it stays on the cold side. Another cold blast forecast for next weekend, but very much FI at present.
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#131
Optimus Prime
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Posted 04 February 2012 - 16:26
CET likely to be at -1.1c to the 4th.
Coldest first 4 days to February since 1963 which averaged -2.8c.
Coldest first 4 days to February since 1963 which averaged -2.8c.
May to the 6th
Mean Max 11.5c (-6.0c)
Mean Min 7.3c (-0.6c)
Mean 9.4c (-3.3c)
(Reference period 2004-2011)
Mean Max 11.5c (-6.0c)
Mean Min 7.3c (-0.6c)
Mean 9.4c (-3.3c)
(Reference period 2004-2011)
#132
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Posted 04 February 2012 - 16:43
Minimum today is -7.2C while maxima look like being around 0C, so a drop back to around -1.6C tomorrow is a good bet.
After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at
-1.3C to the 5th (0.0)
-0.8C to the 6th (1.3)
-0.5C to the 7th (1.3)
-0.9C to the 8th (-3.3)
-0.9C to the 9th (-1.1)
-0.9C to the 10th (-0.4)
-1.0C to the 11th (-2.0)
After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at
-1.3C to the 5th (0.0)
-0.8C to the 6th (1.3)
-0.5C to the 7th (1.3)
-0.9C to the 8th (-3.3)
-0.9C to the 9th (-1.1)
-0.9C to the 10th (-0.4)
-1.0C to the 11th (-2.0)
Spring/Summer 2012
Highest Temperature - 20.2C March 29th
Highest Minimum - 13.2C May 22nd
Warmest Day - 14.4C March 1st (Min 12.1, Max 16.6)
Highest Heat Index - 20.2C March 29th
Thunderstorms - 0
Hail Showers - 6 (March 7th, April 13th, 17th, 20th & 23rd)
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Highest Temperature - 20.2C March 29th
Highest Minimum - 13.2C May 22nd
Warmest Day - 14.4C March 1st (Min 12.1, Max 16.6)
Highest Heat Index - 20.2C March 29th
Thunderstorms - 0
Hail Showers - 6 (March 7th, April 13th, 17th, 20th & 23rd)
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#133
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Posted 04 February 2012 - 16:45
BornFromTheVoid, on 04 February 2012 - 16:43 , said:
Minimum today is -7.2C while maxima look like being around 0C, so a drop back to around -1.6C tomorrow is a good bet.
Mmm I don't think maxima will be around 0c. More like 2.0c or slightly higher. Most places have got a few degrees above freezing today.
May to the 6th
Mean Max 11.5c (-6.0c)
Mean Min 7.3c (-0.6c)
Mean 9.4c (-3.3c)
(Reference period 2004-2011)
Mean Max 11.5c (-6.0c)
Mean Min 7.3c (-0.6c)
Mean 9.4c (-3.3c)
(Reference period 2004-2011)
#134
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Posted 04 February 2012 - 17:31
Optimus Prime, on 04 February 2012 - 16:45 , said:
Mmm I don't think maxima will be around 0c. More like 2.0c or slightly higher. Most places have got a few degrees above freezing today.
Ok, I'm was just going by the xcweather map that showed maxima at around 0C or below, could have missed the peak by a bit I suppose. A maximum of 2C would make it -1.3C tomorrow.
Spring/Summer 2012
Highest Temperature - 20.2C March 29th
Highest Minimum - 13.2C May 22nd
Warmest Day - 14.4C March 1st (Min 12.1, Max 16.6)
Highest Heat Index - 20.2C March 29th
Thunderstorms - 0
Hail Showers - 6 (March 7th, April 13th, 17th, 20th & 23rd)
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Highest Temperature - 20.2C March 29th
Highest Minimum - 13.2C May 22nd
Warmest Day - 14.4C March 1st (Min 12.1, Max 16.6)
Highest Heat Index - 20.2C March 29th
Thunderstorms - 0
Hail Showers - 6 (March 7th, April 13th, 17th, 20th & 23rd)
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#135
kold weather
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Posted 04 February 2012 - 20:46
Going by the current models we are certainly going to have a shot at a sub-zero month, though very long way to go till then...
Something around the 1.6-1.8C mark will give us a technical below average winter by the 71-00 scale...amazing really!!
Something around the 1.6-1.8C mark will give us a technical below average winter by the 71-00 scale...amazing really!!
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#136
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Posted 04 February 2012 - 21:35
BornFromTheVoid, on 04 February 2012 - 16:43 , said:
Minimum today is -7.2C while maxima look like being around 0C, so a drop back to around -1.6C tomorrow is a good bet.
After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at
-1.3C to the 5th (0.0)
-0.8C to the 6th (1.3)
-0.5C to the 7th (1.3)
-0.9C to the 8th (-3.3)
-0.9C to the 9th (-1.1)
-0.9C to the 10th (-0.4)
-1.0C to the 11th (-2.0)
After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at
-1.3C to the 5th (0.0)
-0.8C to the 6th (1.3)
-0.5C to the 7th (1.3)
-0.9C to the 8th (-3.3)
-0.9C to the 9th (-1.1)
-0.9C to the 10th (-0.4)
-1.0C to the 11th (-2.0)
Certainly there is strong potential for at least the first half of the month coming in below 0 degrees.
I would have thought the start to Feb 86 was equally as cold as to the start of this month? Could winter 11/12 be a role reversal of winter 10/11 with a very cold last 4 weeks as opposed to a very cold first 4 weeks. There is a chance the winter as a whole comes out slightly below the average, despite the mild Dec and January something many people a couple of weeks ago would have said is impossible.
I do feel this month could easily beat Feb 91 for coldness but certainly not 1986 - I might be wrong..
#137
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Posted 05 February 2012 - 09:52
I thought I was being way over optimistic with my punt of 0.4C but it looks a bit more attainable now given the current output, still a long way to go though.
FC
FC
#138
Mr_Data
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Posted 05 February 2012 - 10:34
Including this winter now, the last 4 winters have had at least one winter month starting off with a large -ve anomaly
January 2009, January 2010, December 2010 and now February 2012.
I think values this week are going to depend a lot on cloud cover.
January 2009, January 2010, December 2010 and now February 2012.
I think values this week are going to depend a lot on cloud cover.
#139
summer blizzard
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Posted 05 February 2012 - 11:27
To be fair i think the chances of getting back to average are now gone, it would take something unprecedented if the CET is near -1C to the 11th.
Summer Blizzard's 2012 winter forecast - 4 on the trot - http://forum.netweat...20#entry2168669!
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#140
summer blizzard
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Posted 05 February 2012 - 11:37
How many winters have seen consecutive freezing months?
Summer Blizzard's 2012 winter forecast - 4 on the trot - http://forum.netweat...20#entry2168669!
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