344 replies to this topic

[reef]

North-Easterly Blast, on 07 March 2012 - 15:13 , said:

February 2012 was on the cool side of the most recent seasonal average, but it was close to the average for 1961-90 and earlier sets of averages - so it wasn't exactly a below average month. Feb 2012 was close to average for the CET, or on the cool side of the most recent seasonal average. I would for example call a Feb like 2010 cold, but Feb 2012 wasn't that cold. It is like saying, that if the Feb CET had have been around 4.5, then many woud have called it warm, when there is less than 1*C difference between a threshold of a cold month and a warm month.

I dont think anyone would call a 4.5C February 'warm', it would be seen quite rightly as a pretty average month.

Its moving the goalposts a bit using different averages to suit. Its almost always been the case that the most recent 30 year average is used to decide where a month stands. I dont see how a 3.8C February can be called anything other than below average or cool.

[summer blizzard]

1981-2010 or 1701-2011 average are the only ones i will go by.

[North-Easterly Blast]

reef, on 07 March 2012 - 17:02 , said:

I dont think anyone would call a 4.5C February 'warm', it would be seen quite rightly as a pretty average month.

Its moving the goalposts a bit using different averages to suit. Its almost always been the case that the most recent 30 year average is used to decide where a month stands. I dont see how a 3.8C February can be called anything other than below average or cool.

A 3.8 February CET is on the cool side of the most recent seasonal average, but putting it into perspective with the larger picture it would be seen as a pretty average month, when compared to 1961-90 and 1951-80 averages, which are still sets of averages measured since World War 2.

I think that for a February to be seen as cool or cold, rather than close to average, I think that the CET needs to be below 3.5*C.

Certainly I would call a Feb like 2010 cold, not close to average.

Edited by North-Easterly Blast, 07 March 2012 - 22:07 .

[damianslaw]

North-Easterly Blast, on 07 March 2012 - 15:13 , said:

February 2012 was on the cool side of the most recent seasonal average, but it was close to the average for 1961-90 and earlier sets of averages - so it wasn't exactly a below average month. Feb 2012 was close to average for the CET, or on the cool side of the most recent seasonal average. I would for example call a Feb like 2010 cold, but Feb 2012 wasn't that cold. It is like saying, that if the Feb CET had have been around 4.5, then many woud have called it warm, when there is less than 1*C difference between a threshold of a cold month and a warm month.

Any CET that comes in below the average CET figure is technically below average in my book - doesn't matter if it is only 0.1 degree or 3 degrees below it is still below.

[Tellow]

We've finally had a below average month, the first since August. How normal is it to see this many consecutive months without a month with a CET at least 1.0 below average?