228 replies to this topic

[Alex]

Glacier Point, on 18 January 2012 - 13:54 , said:

Could well be RD. I tend to think of the 06z suite as being the most hostile to a -NAO, so potentially an interesting run in this respect, particularly as we're in a game where the shorter term having a subsequent impact on the track of lows across the N. Atlantic.

That GEFS forecast takes the NAO from nearly +2 SD down to -1 SD in the space of a few days. No wonder the models are struggling.

Hi Stewart,

Interesting posts and from a personal perspective I'm hoping for the cold to be held back until after my wedding on the 4th, do you think the chances are as evenly split as the met office suggests of a mild or very cold regime?

Also there is suggestion from the models of a -nao but westerly based. What are your thoughts on this.

My preference is sunny and dry whether cold or mild Just no snow but it's looking doubtful at the moment?

[Radiating Dendrite]

Alex, on 18 January 2012 - 14:03 , said:

Hi Stewart,

Interesting posts and from a personal perspective I'm hoping for the cold to be held back until after my wedding on the 4th, do you think the chances are as evenly split as the met office suggests of a mild or very cold regime?

Also there is suggestion from the models of a -nao but westerly based. What are your thoughts on this.

My preference is sunny and dry whether cold or mild Just no snow but it's looking doubtful at the moment?

I think a white wedding would look lovely!

Anyway, thanks for the responses GP and NS.

I get the feeling that some of you guys are expecting something to happen "out of the blue" perhaps in the 120-160 sort of timeframe?

[s4lancia]

Certainly seems, initially at least, troughing split off from the PV is reluctant to move toooo far east or south and particularly seems to like the idea of a visit to the UK for a little while, bringing an unsettled cool regime to the BI. As Nick says we don't want to see a postive tilt to it otherwise the route therafter to cold is potentially a much more protracted one. With more hints of a southerly jetstream driving in later on in the month we may have to wait till then, plus increasing trending towards more involvement from the high out towards Russia month end? That'll probably all change come the 12z's though!

[Weathizard]

@ Radiating Dendrite. I'm no expert but in my opinion, if we do get any sort of sustained cold this winter then we are going to have to see somthing within that sort of timeframe becasue as the met say the pattern is likely to stick for a while, whichever pattern we get that is. On to the models, let's hope the 12z contains a few more upgrades, we seem to be getting gradual upgrades at the moment( to my eyes) run by run so from a coldies perspective let's hope that imrpoves .

[nick sussex]

s4lancia, on 18 January 2012 - 14:32 , said:

Certainly seems, initially at least, troughing split off from the PV is reluctant to move toooo far east or south and particularly seems to like the idea of a visit to the UK for a little while, bringing an unsettled cool regime to the BI. As Nick says we don't want to see a postive tilt to it otherwise the route therafter to cold is potentially a much more protracted one. With more hints of a southerly jetstream driving in later on in the month we may have to wait till then, plus increasing trending towards more involvement from the high out towards Russia month end? That'll probably all change come the 12z's though!

I think theres two bites of the cherry as you suggested, one involves the trough over the UK sinking away, the other IMO is for trough disruption to the west with energy being ejected se'wards.

Given the big drop in the AO and the NAO forecast if theres to be that quicker route it will start around 120-144hrs. I hope its the quick route as this gives less time for another variable to pop up.

Against this though is the ECM ensembles which in the majority are determined to stick the trough over the UK at 168hrs, lets hope they're not quite getting to grips with the background teleconnectons regarding the AO/NAO.

If we have to go the long route it could still turn out fine for cold and snow lovers as long as we don't get a western based negative NAO.

Edited by nick sussex, 18 January 2012 - 14:45 .

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Is there a central based -ve NAO? :-) Anything to stop Nick S reminding us of West based one!!! Just kidding Nick. What I will say about the ECM 168 is that it seems on the mark with the composites I've seen posted. I think several more days of modelling to go on before any more clearer picture emerges, but we are making progress now.

BFTP

[john mac]

Eyes down for our old friend GFS12Z its coming out now. I'm expecting it to continue to trend colder once again which will fit in with GP's forecast.

Time for new daily thread mods......

Edited by john mac, 18 January 2012 - 16:01 .

[Radders]

Colder uppers on Saturday in comparison to the 6z. So an upgrade in the short term. -5 tight to the south coast from 9am-6pm.

[IanM]

A little late on the new thread sorry. Locking this one now.