350 replies to this topic

[Snowy Easterly]

NOGAPS looks good but for some reason i can't view the northern hemisphere charts on it

[Snow Guy]

So after a stand off between the Ecm and the GFS which seemed to last an eternity the ECM gave up this morning and moved over to the GFS stating i give up you win.
Only for the GFS to turn around six hours later and state i was joking all along and move towards the ECM.

To be honest after accepting a flat pattern this morning there are now strong suggestions of blocking appearing and good cold potential, very confused by the models especially as we are told that the 12z GFS is the most progressive when it comes to the jet.

If the ECM sticks with its pattern from the 0z i might actually give up.

[Steve Murr]

& it keeps coming-

CONTROL at 150
http://modeles.meteo...-0-1-150.png?12

Mean at 144-
http://modeles.meteo...21-1-138.png?12

Some awsome ensembles

I will take number 3 7 or 13
S

SylvainTV, on 15 January 2012 - 17:04 , said:

Done sorry

Thanks Mate- Loving the NH plots on Meteociel at the mo-

Nogaps NH chart
http://modeles.meteo...0-180.png?15-17


Steve

[Jason M]

mountain shadow, on 15 January 2012 - 17:00 , said:

I'm struggling to see what is great about that chart. Renewed vortex over the pole and Greenland. Only height rises are over Kamchatka. I know Steve Murr says we pulled an easterly out a similar situation in 1986, but that shows how rare it is to get an easterly with the PV in place over Greenland.

Never said it was great . Its difficult to be certain from that point what comes next. The ridge could flatten out or the next low could dive SE with a pressure rise behind to the NE. My money would be on the worst case again, but its not certain and that in my book is an improvement of sorts!

[Zakos]

All eyes to the ECM this evening. If it too shows a colder a scenario, this would be very encouraging, especially now as we have cross model agreement including (finally!) the GFS

[camiscool]

when does the ecm come out?

[fromey]

camiscool, on 15 January 2012 - 17:22 , said:

when does the ecm come out?

i think starts @ 6

[Gavin D]

Tonight is the night when GFS finally flips and joins the other models in bringing colder weather the question now is how long will this last this maybe the start of whats to come in February you never know

camiscool, on 15 January 2012 - 17:22 , said:

when does the ecm come out?

18:00 meteociel.fr updates the quickest

http://translate.goo...gfse_cartes.php

[John Cox]

7pm, but does not show on NW until fully finished

camiscool, on 15 January 2012 - 17:22 , said:

when does the ecm come out?

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Bottesford has compiled a post showing the times of all the runs of all the models....whatever that means.

http://forum.netweat...t-update-times/

[Andy163]

I quite like the GFS 12Z, moving again towards the ECM and gives us a nice setup as we head into the new month. Potential being the key phrase here...

I also like how far south its beginning to model the Low Pressure systems on this inter pattern zonal period.

[snowlover2009]

Steve Murr, on 15 January 2012 - 16:20 , said:

GFS from this

http://modeles.meteo...12-5-150.png?12

to THIS
http://modeles.meteo...12-5-126.png?12

in 24 hours.....

S

It is amazing to see such difference in a matter of hours at a close range. Just shows it is early day. As ever, gfs slowly moving towards the euros and the 12z FI builds the proper brutal cold by the end of January. Very interesting, times I reckon for the last week of the month and most certainly February.

[bluearmy]

Sylvain - make the 12z ecm look like dec 2010 !!

Seriosuly, plenty more twists and turns to come and my eyes are drawn to the second shortwave dropping in. How small can we make the warm sector ?

[snowlover2009]

UKMO very interesting at 144 hours, looks like the pattern, that we saw at the end of January 1986!

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00119860128.gif



This chart is from the 18th January 1986,

http://www.wetterzen...00119860118.gif

looking at he current models at this time frame, I personally believe we are in a better situation, so the hints we keep getting for the rest of the month into February might not be far off the mark. if, in 1986, they could get that chart and 2 weeks later, one of the coldest February's on record, then we surely have a good chance. The pattern of the winter, is awfully similar to that winter.

[nick sussex]

Optimism returns to the thread!

Some really interesting solutions on offer this evening from the models although the GFS continues to drag its heels, but given that it was wrong within 96hrs then hardly a model to read too much into at the moment.

In terms of the UKMO and whether it will topple the ridge into Europe, this is unlikely as the blocking to the east is stopping that trough over Europe so the highs got nowhere to go.

The models by and large follow the ECM ensemble mean of recent days with troughing locked in over Europe.

I think the next uncertainty is going to be where that low pressure goes near Iceland, if the block to the east extends further west this will be forced to head s/se in towards the UK.

What happens after that way too far out to call.

[snowlover2009]

Steve Murr, on 15 January 2012 - 17:00 , said:

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-144.png?12

UPDATED GEM

& the NOGAPS

At 168
http://modeles.meteo...0-168.png?15-17

After near identical looking like the UKMO at 144-
http://modeles.meteo...0-144.png?15-17

SYLVIAN FIX THE NOGAPS NH LINK!!!!!
S

Wow, some big changes at a closer range! Definitely things picking up for the coldies. I have a feeling gfs 18z will fall in line or some of the ensembles will start to dig back below -10 again. All the euros have been in a great agreement, all eyes on the ecm.

[Cheese Rice]

Cheese Rice, on 15 January 2012 - 16:02 , said:

I'm hopeful we will some sort of change on the GFS output, it seems to be stuck on a broken record with negligible difference between each output all the way up to T192.

Looking at the 6z T850 ensembles for Oslo

t850Oslo.png
12Z ensembles

There is a clear divergence between the operational and the rest of the suite, this was prevalent yesterday too

t850Oslo1.png
Yesterdays 18z ensembles

We have only got two options.

1.) Low pressure fails to reach Oslo and we see a North West/South East Trajectory of the lows, cold air stays over our North East with high pressure centered over Northern Europe but not over Oslo.

2.) The Operational is correct and the rest of the ensembles fall in line.

You can't really have a midway point either, the high acts as a block or it transfers further east at the force of the lows.

Following on from my earlier post the 12Z is making good progress towards the first option. The high to over N.Europe/Russia is much more prevalent and most importantly further east.

What is shown right at the end of FI is a perfectly plausible evolution from the pattern we are in, you can cut everything out after T192 as I just don't see a high pushing north then building over Norway. If anything I would expect the block to our east to push further west causing a more NW/SW trajectory of the lows allowing heights to build.

.

It all really depends on the strength of the PV/hgh, any high would have to be 1035mb plus to have any chance of stopping the full force of the PV.

Edited by Cheese Rice, 15 January 2012 - 17:53 .

[snowlover2009]

Steve Murr, on 15 January 2012 - 17:08 , said:

& it keeps coming-

CONTROL at 150
http://modeles.meteo...-0-1-150.png?12

Mean at 144-
http://modeles.meteo...21-1-138.png?12

Some awsome ensembles

I will take number 3 7 or 13
S




Thanks Mate- Loving the NH plots on Meteociel at the mo-

Nogaps NH chart
http://modeles.meteo...0-180.png?15-17


Steve

Sorry for all the posts. I feel the significant point we need to watch, is that high pressure pushing up to Greenland, illustrated by the control run. This could be the most crucial part.

[kold weather]

Some better runs but they are still far from steller runs. We have a brief toppler northerly flow with just a few hints of maybe a short-fire NE airflow as the LP sinks away. The BIG problem is that PV placement though, its still way too close to Greenland and if you look at the UKMO for example, there is a weak shortwave working NE up the Azores High western flank at 144hrs, I've never seen that happen with a PV nearby and seen anty good results come from it. We'd probably get another quick NW/N shot before the pattern flattens right out on the 12z UKMO.

At least we are getting agreement on a brief toppler type set-up now though.

Control run would be a decent solution if we want to keep things below average.

[THE EYE IN THE SKY]

Blimey im on and off this fence like a yoyo.

Much better runs and finally the GFS has woken up and realised it was wrong. Im also posting the NOGAPS at +180 because its a scenario I suggested yesterday that could well occur.

http://modeles.meteo...0-180.png?15-17

This morning I said there was a divergence of 9C between the ensembles but this has now changed with a solid clustering around -5C.

http://cdn.nwstatic....bridgeshire.png