350 replies to this topic

[Matty M]

Can the ever consistent UKM continue it's consistency tonight?

96hrs shows things cooling down from the west across UK & IRE

[happy days]

You know when looking at the 12z the opportunity for another back door easterly is there around 132h as the trough drops into europe but yet again the jet just will not allow for it with all the energy going north.
Be interesting to see what the euros make of it now that its clear the gfs was barking up the wrong tree with its flat pattern.

[RssEarthAlerts]

If i remember rightly from last year the gfs can really only be trusted upto 7 days is that still correct? They have been swaying all week! Who thinks we will see one major snow event this year in the UK?

[Matty M]

UKM not as good as last nights but still showing a colder incursion.

RssEarthAlerts, on 15 January 2012 - 16:32 , said:

If i remember rightly from last year the gfs can really only be trusted upto 7 days is that still correct? They have been swaying all week! Who thinks we will see one major snow event this year in the UK?

Every model has been swaying all week. Maybe with the UKM being the exception.

[Steve Murr]

Matty M, on 15 January 2012 - 16:37 , said:

UKM not as good as last nights but still showing a colder incursion. Every model has been swaying all week. Maybe with the UKM being the exception.

Looks EXACTLY like the tail end of Jan 86 charts I posted last night...

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?15-17

524 Thickness in the SE at 144

S

Edited by Steve Murr, 15 January 2012 - 16:40 .

[Matty M]

UKM shows a brief cold incursion with a shortwave moving across southern Greenland at T144, cold in the southeast with some snow showers and cold throughout central western Europe and France.

Edited by Matty M, 15 January 2012 - 16:39 .

[Snowy Easterly]

Oh dear GFS in FI want's to tease us again with height building north east

[Andrew d'Alton]

All eyes to the ECM 12z now, could we get agreement for once ?

[Snowstorm1]

12z GFS FI is mouthwatering for us cold fans with a huge amount of cold from the NE ready to pounce on the UK

[Steve Murr]

http://www.meteociel...192-21.GIF?14-0

Now going back to the JMA yesterday & comparing it with tonights UKMO all we need is just a bit more Southerly component in that big jet streak at around 156 & bobs you aunt fannies your uncles- big snow event sliding South-

Not that it needs repeating- however this evolution with a diffluent jet west of greenland followed by a southerly jet streak is a real PIG to model.....

I would love to have seen a 168 UKMO tonight ( and a GFS 408)
S

[Snowy Easterly]

Matty M, on 15 January 2012 - 16:44 , said:

Yeah, no doubt it will arrive in March!

If the run went on further would we get the easterly or would it just dive into southern europe like usual ?

[fromey]

holy hell i cant keep up, are we saying the GFS has sort of come in line
ukmo ok and we r just waiting to see what the ecm shows?

i going to go and start rocking in a dark room!!!

keep the informative posts coming
fromey

[Seselwa]

Nogaps looking good as well which ends with a Greenland high http://www.meteociel...apse_cartes.php

Edited by Higrade, 15 January 2012 - 16:54 .

[warrenb]

I have to say, I think the UK MET 144 chart is a cracker. Great NW/SE tilt on the jet and PV further west than ever.

[happy days]

Steve Murr, on 15 January 2012 - 16:47 , said:

http://www.meteociel...192-21.GIF?14-0

Now going back to the JMA yesterday & comparing it with tonights UKMO all we need is just a bit more Southerly component in that big jet streak at around 156 & bobs you aunt fannies your uncles- big snow event sliding South-

Not that it needs repeating- however this evolution with a diffluent jet west of greenland followed by a southerly jet streak is a real PIG to model.....

I would love to have seen a 168 UKMO tonight ( and a GFS 408)
S

Well i m not going to try to compete with you steve but surely ukmo is a standard toppler with the orientation of the azores high and the jet running across southern GReenland? although i havent seen it on wz and meteociel i hate.

Edited by happy days, 15 January 2012 - 16:57 .

[Jason M]

The Meto chart at 144 actually doesn't look too bad to me.

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?15-17

One of the better charts i've seen for a couple of days (from an admittedly dire benchmark). I'm a bit surprised more comment hasnt been made about this. Hard to tell where we go from there, but it does have possibilities and that is a big improvement!

Jason

[Zakos]

Snowstorm1, on 15 January 2012 - 16:46 , said:

12z GFS FI is mouthwatering for us cold fans with a huge amount of cold from the NE ready to pounce on the UK

Yes, and its not as unlikely as it would it seem being deep fi, the signs are there before the low res output starts.

Comparing the 12z to the 06z
http://cdn.nwstatic....174/h500slp.png

http://cdn.nwstatic....180/h500slp.png

PV slightly weaker, but more importantly a much stronger Russian high.

GFS FI over recent days shows the Russian high retreating as soon as the low res output starts.

Its now becoming increasingly clear that this is not going to occur. Whether it actually makes it into Scandinavia is anyone's guess, but I think this is a realistic outcome come feb.

Note how the gfs never shows noteable height rises to the NW, but often shows them to the NE. This, at least, shows that there is a signal for a potential scandi block as we enter February

Plenty of interesting whether to be had in the medium term however, still with a possibility of snow from relatively brief cold spells.

[bobbydog]

i know its FI blah blah... but the GFS gives us a nice scandi high building from +300

just shows though, all evolutions are not out of the question...

Edited by bobbydog, 15 January 2012 - 16:58 .

[mountain shadow]

Jason M, on 15 January 2012 - 16:57 , said:

The Meto chart at 144 actually doesn't look too bad to me.

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?15-17

One of the better charts i've seen for a couple of days (from an admittedly dire benchmark). I'm a bit surprised more comment hasnt been made about this. Hard to tell where we go from there, but it does have possibilities and that is a big improvement!

Jason

I'm struggling to see what is great about that chart. Renewed vortex over the pole and Greenland. Only height rises are over Kamchatka. I know Steve Murr says we pulled an easterly out a similar situation in 1986, but that shows how rare it is to get an easterly with the PV in place over Greenland.

[Steve Murr]

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-144.png?12

UPDATED GEM

& the NOGAPS

At 168
http://modeles.meteo...0-168.png?15-17

After near identical looking like the UKMO at 144-
http://modeles.meteo...0-144.png?15-17

SYLVIAN FIX THE NOGAPS NH LINK!!!!!
S