192 replies to this topic

[TomSE20]

Meto Fax for t120

http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVO89.png

Regards,
Tom

[Zakos]

Grimsby Snow Lover, on 14 January 2012 - 22:44 , said:

Trust me Zakos, I do see this but until the charts shown by ECM or indeed the GFS materialise Im keeping the champagne(ECM) on ice. Daft as it sounds and I know the weather gods don't work this way but I don't want to jinx the cold lol.

yes i suspected you did i was referring to the others who somehow couldnt. Its not daft, and i may be horribly wrong but i am quite confident on a pattern change. Wheter the uk beniftis benefits from this remains to seen, as is always the case with british weather!!

[s4lancia]

nick sussex, on 14 January 2012 - 22:40 , said:

Good and bad points for cold prospects with the GFS 18hrs run, its pattern over the east Atlantic is more favourable as low pressure at 96hrs isn't so far east, upstream though it refuses to split the PV early enough and flattens the pattern out.

So really theres little time to play with in terms of manoeuvre and if the 00hrs runs don't resolve this then it would be quite unbelievable.

Absolutely. At 120 we have a well-defined split which has been modelled now for a few days by the ECM (difference versions of but time-wise not slipped back at all). GFS has, well, a mess.

Unfortunatly though we simply cannot consign the GFS to the bin whilst it remains steadfast. Although I know what my money's on being right!

[Cloud 10]

bluearmy, on 14 January 2012 - 22:11 , said:

the jet at T84 with the low exiting the eastern seaboard slightly weaker and bit more energy into the southern arm. will this be enough to slow it down ????

T96 - the answer is probably yes as i doubt the jet streak at T114 will be as strong, the vortex is slightly further west and there is a bit more amplification. nearer to home, the flow tends se as mentioned above and heights more pronounced around svaalbard. hhmmmm

maybe not then. how i hate commentating on a run .................... i'll get my coat !!

LOL! I know what you mean,i've ran out of coats!

Anyway,the latest fax chart (i hope) looks promising,with colder air making an appearance
in scotland during thursday.

http://www.meteociel...fax/fax120s.gif

[mountain shadow]

TomSE20, on 14 January 2012 - 22:50 , said:

Meto Fax for t120

http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVO89.png

Regards,
Tom

Tonight's 120 GFS has the Newfoundland trough around 300 miles further east. These small differences make a massive difference to our small Islands.

[Gerry]

Steve Murr, on 14 January 2012 - 22:46 , said:

nick have you got the link to the ECM charts that got posted over here last year- it has the UK with the contours & 850 overlays- I loved them chatrs

S

Steve
these?
these?

[JP1972]

Sorry to be a pain, but can someone give an update as to where we are now please?!

Bloody exhasting is this, as well as fascinating!

I've sided with the ECM but can someone more knowledgable put some meat on the bones and sock it to me/us proper??!!

[Cloud 10]

JP1972, on 14 January 2012 - 23:05 , said:

Sorry to be a pain, but can someone give an update as to where we are now please?!

Bloody exhasting is this, as well as fascinating!

I've sided with the ECM but can someone more knowledgable put some meat on the bones and sock it to me/us proper??!!

http://forum.netweat...ost__p__2212923

[nick sussex]

Steve Murr, on 14 January 2012 - 23:08 , said:

yes hero

can I have the link

steve

In case Gerrys logged off here you go found it at last!

http://www.weatherca...21524f5b28.html

[Gerry]

Steve Murr, on 14 January 2012 - 23:08 , said:

yes hero

can I have the link

steve

No problem good to see you being subjective amongst all the flan flinging personally cant be bothered posting any more, one hell of an omega block to end the 18z just about sums up the gfs output at the moment, anyway heres the link www.weathercast.co.uk/latest-model-forecasts/gfs-ncep.html

regards

Gerry

[kold weather]

GFS has taken one move towards the ECM but still remains steadfast in another way. The model weight still lays with the ECM solution though its well worth noting that those models keep on downgrading the cold spell into a cold snap. Still the GFS has done itself no favours by sticking to a constantly zonal solution, so even if its closer to the actual truth then the orginal hell-raiser ECM solution, its going to get no credit at all.

[Gerry]

nick sussex, on 14 January 2012 - 23:12 , said:

In case Gerrys logged off here you go found it at last!

http://www.weatherca...21524f5b28.html

Nick
mighty fast fingers... doesn't help that I am watching match of the day as well as working and keeping an eye on the n. hemisphere who said men couldn't multi task

[Michael Winston]

THE EYE IN THE SKY, on 14 January 2012 - 20:47 , said:

ECM mean.

http://www.meteociel...H1-240.GIF?14-0

Im becoming increasingly confident of the outlook now. Simple summary is turning colder next weekend with snowfall possible in some areas. Thereafter remaining cold especially towards the SE but Ireland/NW may turn slightly less cold. Going even further the combination of blocking remainiing to the NE, trough into Europe, PV to the W of Greenland means further undercutting is possible which may lead towards an E,ly developing.

Thanks, Dave.

In a rare post here I'd like to agree with your astute observations which confirm the trends my untrained mind had identified.

Regards,

Mike.

P.S. Very belated Happy New year greetings.

[Tim Bland]

TomSE20, on 14 January 2012 - 22:50 , said:

Meto Fax for t120

http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVO89.png

Regards,
Tom

Great fax for t+120. Cold front pushing south with snow showers following, heights present over Greenland.

[THE EYE IN THE SKY]

Despite the GFS disagreeing with the rest of the models early on I am spotting somewhat of a simliar trend in the GEFS ensembles for the rest of Jan.

Seems to me that beyond +168 the GEFS ensembles suggest LP systems taking a more S,ly track, tracking SE with low pressure developing across S Europe. As a consequence of this im seeing pressure rising to the N. The GEFS control has been consistent with this.

http://modeles.meteo...-0-1-324.png?18

So even if the GFS is correct I can see a similiar trend but its just slower getting there with the GFS/GEFS. I feel the rest of Jan is going to be fasinating following the models.

[NickR]

Gerry, on 14 January 2012 - 23:13 , said:

No problem good to see you being subjective amongst all the flan flinging personally cant be bothered posting any more, one hell of an omega block to end the 18z just about sums up the gfs output at the moment, anyway heres the link www.weathercast.co.uk/latest-model-forecasts/gfs-ncep.html

regards

Gerry

Erm... don't you mean objective (i.e., not prejudiced by personal stances and viewpoints)?

Op was a big mild outlier in the low res section:
http://176.31.229.22...un=18&runpara=0

[damianslaw]

Last post from me tonight on the models - and its not about the GFS a model at the moment I think is performing particularly badly, no it is the UKMO Fax Chart for 120 hours. What it is showing is behind the trough is some very cold upper air, the 528 dam line will quickly sweep through Scotland - so the milder interlude on tuesday/wednesday would be a very shortlived affair. Any precipitation behind the front would very readily be of the snow variety down to very low levels, so it certainly supports the met office update for snow in the north by the end of next week. Before we start talking about an easterly set up or extensive northerly blocking, within the reliable timeframe we have a potentially snowy polar blast on our doorsteps well for the north at least. I do believe ECM and UKMO are modelling the position of the trough and mid atlantic ridge correctly. The projected polar blast would be a much more potent beast than the polar blasts of december.

[Radders]

So whose up for the 0z's tonight. Seriously though, to me personally we're no closer to the resolution. It seems the battle has been on-going for days now with no real, real indication. However I do feel tonights runs fall slightly in line with the ECM, abeit a slightly watered down version than the ECM that was showing a 4 or 5 runs ago.

[Matty M]

Radders, on 14 January 2012 - 23:28 , said:

So whose up for the 0z's tonight. Seriously though, to me personally we're no closer to the resolution. It seems the battle has been on-going for days now with no real, real indication. However I do feel tonights runs fall slightly in line with the ECM, abeit a slightly watered down version than the ECM that was showing a 4 or 5 runs ago.

Well from where i am sitting, the ECM has progressively moved towards a less favourable solution for cold weather in the last 24 hours

[THE EYE IN THE SKY]

This is the kind of chart I wouldn't be surprised to see appearing on the ECM at +240 over the next few days.


http://modeles.meteo...-2-1-312.png?18