460 replies to this topic

[trisnow]

ChartViewer, on 13 January 2012 - 18:20 , said:

Out to T96 now knife edge stuff

Really? At t96 I am seeing Friday 00z? thought I should be seeing 12z Friday.. I am new to this

[coldwinter]

Link to meteciel chart viewer:
http://www.meteociel...ype=0&archive=0
Ryan.

[THE EYE IN THE SKY]

Better agreement from the Aberdeen ensembles of it turning colder from the 19th.

http://cdn.nwstatic....erdeenshire.png

Slightly less agreement further S.

http://cdn.nwstatic....bridgeshire.png

Starting to get a clearer picture of what may happen. Shall explain after i've viewed the ECM.

[ChartViewer]

coldwinter, on 13 January 2012 - 18:25 , said:

Link to meteciel chart viewer:
http://www.meteociel...ype=0&archive=0
Ryan.

Eh yes thats what im viewing

[ukpaul]

danm, on 13 January 2012 - 18:25 , said:

Looks like a slightly "less good" ECM out to t120 so far.

The pattern seem to be marginally flatter, with less ridging.

Those are for two different times, twelve hours apart, there should be notable differences.

[Active Weather Dude]

Azores high closer to the UK on the ECM, less amplified and trending more towards the GFS!

[coldwinter]

ChartViewer, on 13 January 2012 - 18:27 , said:

Eh yes thats what im viewing

Linked for trisnow.
Ryan.

[danm]

ukpaul, on 13 January 2012 - 18:27 , said:

Those are for two different times, twelve hours apart, there should be notable differences.

Yep just noticed that myself. apologies.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

danm, on 13 January 2012 - 18:31 , said:

Yep just noticed that myself. apologies.

And t144 is on target. Atantic wedge ridging upto Greenland meeting artic High wedge, SW ejecting into SE Europe.....looking good PV split and main bit sent to Canada



BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST, 13 January 2012 - 18:36 .

[chicken soup]

http://www.meteoc
iel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=0&archive=0 looks good at 144

[Paul]

trisnow, on 13 January 2012 - 18:19 , said:

When would the new ECm start showing on here please? http://www.netweathe...ction=ecm;sess=
Is it nearer 7pm? Thanks

The netweather ecm viewer will update when the run is complete, some may say it's better that way!

[danm]

BLAST FROM THE PAST, on 13 January 2012 - 18:32 , said:

And t144 is on target. Atantic wedge ridging upto Greenland meeting artic High wedge, SW ejecting into SE Europe.....looking good

BFTP

Yep, ECM sticking to it's guns out to t144:


Ridging up to Greenland, amplified pattern as it was on the 0z.

[happy days]

BLAST FROM THE PAST, on 13 January 2012 - 18:32 , said:

And t144 is on target. Atantic wedge ridging upto Greenland meeting artic High wedge, SW ejecting into SE Europe.....looking good

BFTP

Last post for a while in the MO thread from me but no Fred,the ECM has backtracked significantly this evening.
The high is going to get flattened by the northern arm,i should IMO b/c that sounds arrogant.

Edited by happy days, 13 January 2012 - 18:36 .

[ChartViewer]

BLAST FROM THE PAST, on 13 January 2012 - 18:32 , said:

And t144 is on target. Atantic wedge ridging upto Greenland meeting artic High wedge, SW ejecting into SE Europe.....looking good

BFTP

Sorry but no....Flatter Azores ridge.....half hearted ridge to Greenland and back by 24 hours....Cant see that myself...It may verify later but that azores ridge at T144 is def flatter than the previous run sorry.

[winter watcher]

Fail to see the despondency with regards to the ecm +144 looks great to me and can only go one way from here ! The model saga continues until the pub run and the 00z.

[winter watcher]

Out to 168+ and here comes the cold...

Edited by winter watcher, 13 January 2012 - 18:38 .

[bluearmy]

ecm 12z loses the high heights around svaalbard T144. there are differences and the transition to T168 is going to tell us a fair bit. JMA has the trough and looks ok as a variaiton on a theme

note the small shortwave left behind east of iceland. that been showing consistently on the ens as energy headed south after the trough drops in. any noreaster will prob have to wait for this. the 12z looks a bit colder than the 00z.

Edited by bluearmy, 13 January 2012 - 18:41 .

[Ian Suffolk]

T+168 still looking quite promising. Azores high placement is a little flatter but cold still streaming down from the north.

http://www.meteociel...ype=0&archive=0

[ChartViewer]

winter watcher, on 13 January 2012 - 18:35 , said:

Fail to see the despondency with regards to the ecm +144 looks great to me and can only go one way from here ! The model saga continues until the pub run and the 00z.

T168 is fine but its been put back...My moneys on the GFS to win this by a country mile and its 18z will confirm the ECM backtrack tonight.


ECM will continue to show T168 charts...expect it to backtrack in its T00 tmw


Regards
Regards

[danm]

ChartViewer, on 13 January 2012 - 18:40 , said:

T168 is fine but its been put back...My moneys on the GFS to win this by a country mile and its 18z will confirm the ECM backtrack tonight.


ECM will continue to show T168 charts...expect it to backtrack in its T00 tmw


Regards
Regards

Please explain your reasoning if you're going to make such bold statements. The ECM is pretty much sticking to it's gun so far. I see little change out to t168 compared to the 0z.