440 replies to this topic

[Paul]

Since the mid-range stuff is jumping all over the shop right now, maybe it's worth a look at the climatic model (CFS), and for Feb it's strengthened the cold signal in the last few days..

[Matty M]

UKM appears more positive than the GFS outlook with better prospects further north and similar to the 0z ECM

We see heights moving west towards Greenland at T144.

And lets be honest the UKM has been the most consistent of late, although it does have the benefit of only going out to T144

It has been signalled though that any feed from the east thereafter will only have a very limited cold pool to tap in to.

Edited by Matty M, 12 January 2012 - 17:18 .

[happy days]

Matty M, on 12 January 2012 - 17:16 , said:

UKM appears more positive than the GFS outlook with better prospects further north and similar to the 0z ECM

We see heights moving west towards Greenland at T144.

And lets be honest the UKM has been the most consistent of late, although it does have the benefit of only going out to T144

It does now you mention it look very similar to 0z ecm matty although i was less than convinced by the way the ecm 0z op run evolved.
Maybe there will be some consistency this evening from the euros.

[john mac]

Steve Murr, on 12 January 2012 - 17:12 , said:

What a total mess- infact probably the biggest mess of ensembles since I think I can remember-

The GFS Ensemble suite at 150 has NO trends, no consistency- its AWFUL
No wonder its bottom of the league currently-

The UKMO at least is consistent in the 72 / 96 range- ( & incidentally has -6c uppers at 72 in SE)- at 144 UKMO is balanced with northern energy up against the scandi block & energy going underneath- although it doesnt look 'classical'

I await the ECM- although probably anothe 2/3 days to get a clear picture

S

Yep the ensembles definately come under the pony and trap categiry again with absolutely no trend at all!!

[johnholmes]

another jh pd
this one to compare the 06z and 12z GFS runs at 3 time intervals, no special choice T+72=reasonably close ahead, T+144 for next week and further out T+240.
Make your own minds up please.

 differences 06-12z thur 12 jan 12.pdf   427.29K   108 downloads

[stewfox]

CreweCold, on 12 January 2012 - 17:14 , said:

BOBBYDOG- in opposition to the GFS op, this is what we need to be seeing-PTB 18. A proper height rise around Greenland.

Leads to energy undercutting the block eventually, locking us into a cold pattern from the N/NE



Another good one........



Note the pressure rise around Greenland and energy underpinning the block

Now compare this to the 12z operational....



Lower heights to the north and around Greenland with a stronger jet. Mid lat high sat in Atlantic with no way of going north.

These look live very good charts, re your other post do you think they are not going to verify ?

[lorenzo]

Interesting to find out what NOAA input make of todays runs in their summary later, so much difference between them. A slow fuse on that 12z GFS Run, very flat in the near future..

Digging around found this stonker in the further reaches of the run, pleasing on the eye..

[CreweCold]

stewfox, on 12 January 2012 - 17:28 , said:

These look live very good charts, re your other post do you think they are not going to verify ?

As you can see the good PTB members that I have posted share one characteristic....The PV around Canada/west Greenland is disrupted enough to allow the formation of the heights around Greenland with a far more dynamic PV situation. For the operational, the core of the west lobe of PV is situated much further east which precludes these height rises and results in a much tighter jet stream and organised PV.

As for verification, I have no idea but it has been a trend of the GFS operationals of late to re-organise the PV which would essentially lead to less favourable ridging i.e Greenland height rises. It well be a situation where the ECM and GEFS ensembles are playing catch up with the touted GFS operational synoptic set up. Any wobble from the ECM this evening and IMHO it's game set and match to the GFS on this one.

Edited by CreweCold, 12 January 2012 - 17:36 .

[cooling climate]

Lol you can almost read the script, a few days ago we wanted the ECM to fall in line with the GFS
and the UKMO but it proved to be correct and now when we want it to be correct it will probably do
a U turn and fall in line with the GFS.
With such high pressure building across northern Siberia and into western Russia I would have
thought it would have a big impact on our weather through either northerly or easterly synoptics.
We missed one opportunity with a possible easterly because of two much energy from the vortex
and we may be about to miss another for the same reason.In a winter such as we are having these opportunities will not come along often.
The heights we are seeing build across the eastern half of the Arctic are I think a product of the
stratosphere warmings and will not stick around forever and I would say if we do not see a cold
pattern establish over our segment of the northern hemisphere by or before the end of January then
we may well have missed the boat for this winter.

[phil n.warks.]

The 12zGFS ens graph now seems to make some sense,perhaps a late update,



The trend to a brief milder spell next week,then colder again but not excessively so.

[bluearmy]

you may not believe it but the GEFS ens mean early T200's now mirrors the ecm ens mean, trough driving to our east. the trend thereafter on the mean is for a further trough to sink south just to our west which turns the flow more sw. that has been a constant on ncep ens means post T240 over the pst day or two. if correct, this is not the end of the world, depending on how far south the initial trough gets. those members that build an atlantic ridge are very good. i think its not worth going too much further than this initial troughing. we still need agreement on where its likely to set up. what odds that the 12z ecm suite drops it, now that gefs has retrogressed it into agreement !!

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=1

[ChartViewer]

phil n.warks., on 12 January 2012 - 17:38 , said:

The 12zGFS ens graph now seems to make some sense,perhaps a late update,

graphe_ens3.php.gif

The trend to a brief milder spell next week,then colder again but not excessively so.

Hi Phil or we could reverse that last sentance to milder turn ing to a cooler spell this weekend and then going milder again as per the whole of December and early Jan

Im fed up with the models today...Last night i thought that is it we are seeing the PV not reacting to the SSW as it cant force its way to break up the PV and that energy driving the jet NE. Certainly thought we were seeing a pattern of runs showing azores ridge north jet going zonal and nothing that interesting for coldies.

However the ECM decides to go back to a colder look and the UKMO isnt that shabby........Think everyone is getting very weary of the model watching lately with all these twists and turns!!!...Then GFS 12Z shows that....Shambles!!!

Regards

[Steve Murr]

http://www.meteociel...CH1-72.GIF?12-0

ECM still in tandem with UKmet-

S

[ChartViewer]

Steve Murr, on 12 January 2012 - 18:16 , said:

http://www.meteociel...CH1-72.GIF?12-0

ECM still in tandem with UKmet-

S

Saw that Steve also T96 seems to back the PV west again?.....could be interesting for coldies but who knows these days!

Regards

[nick sussex]

Its hard to believe there can be this much disagreement at 96hrs regarding energy off that PV on the eastern side of Greenland.

The ECM will not back the GFS 12hrs with it holding energy further west so its now to see whether it goes with its morning trend in the later output.

[Tim Bland]

Seems to be ejecting energy se from the PV over Greenland, this can only be a good thing!

Epic ECM as Steve would say! Even better than the 00z IMO as there is more room for error

Edited by Tim Bland, 12 January 2012 - 18:51 .

[ukpaul]

JMA looks fun, completely different but is it picking up something important or not?

Edited by ukpaul, 12 January 2012 - 18:31 .

[Matty M]

ECM alot better looking than the UKM at T144hr

totally different view of things in the Arctic in particular

[nick sussex]

ukpaul, on 12 January 2012 - 18:30 , said:

JMA looks fun, completely different but is it picking up something important or not?

Thats very much like the mornings ECM, the key is the PV splits and thats what we want to see from the ECM 168hrs.

Amen to the ECM good looking 168hrs! PV split.

Edited by nick sussex, 12 January 2012 - 18:37 .

[ChartViewer]

nick sussex, on 12 January 2012 - 18:34 , said:

Thats very much like the mornings ECM, the key is the PV splits and thats what we want to see from the ECM 168hrs.

And split it seems to do Nick