Into January now and an interesting period of weather watching coming up.
Will the Atlantic conveyor belt of storms end? Will it turn to a more colder set up? Will our resident Polar Vortex go on holiday or pay us a visit?
Please continue below...
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#1
lorenzo
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Posted 06 January 2012 - 09:27
#2
Cheggers
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Bring me sunshine!
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Posted 06 January 2012 - 10:23
I'll get the ball rolling. Frosty start, with lethal roads. 1C when I fell oot ma pit the morn.
I WANT SUN
#3
BleakMidwinter
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Posted 06 January 2012 - 10:40
Mild breeze and xc says 2 degrees and pressure 1020 here, forecast by xcweather to go up to the high 1030s on Mon/tues. I'm not sure I knew it went up that high 
I'm so used to it being below 1000...
Ok, before I embarrass myself, I know metcheck is not quite the thing and I know January 17th is 11 days away so not quite the thing either, but all the same, I can't help squeaking a bit because for the first time this winter, the 'Heavy Snow' icon is shown for Edinburgh... I know, I know, it won't happen, it's only a daydream based on a not-very-good site's ridiculously-in-advance forecast.... but... but...
I'm so used to it being below 1000...Ok, before I embarrass myself, I know metcheck is not quite the thing and I know January 17th is 11 days away so not quite the thing either, but all the same, I can't help squeaking a bit because for the first time this winter, the 'Heavy Snow' icon is shown for Edinburgh... I know, I know, it won't happen, it's only a daydream based on a not-very-good site's ridiculously-in-advance forecast.... but... but...
'Go easy... step lightly... stay free...'
#4
edodfc
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Posted 06 January 2012 - 11:08
3.4 here and signs of that big yellow ba**ard (copyright Rab C) trying to come out again....very calm aswell.....the default wind setting must be broken today
Winter 11/12
First Snowfall 04/12/11
Last Snowfall 19/01/12
Falling Snow 6 (most in a row 3)
Lying Snow 1
Ice Days TBC
Winter 10/11
First Snowfall 24th November
Last Snowfall 12th March
Falling Snow 32 days (most in a row 9)
Lying Snow 57 days (most in a row 51)
Ice Days 20 days
First Snowfall 04/12/11
Last Snowfall 19/01/12
Falling Snow 6 (most in a row 3)
Lying Snow 1
Ice Days TBC
Winter 10/11
First Snowfall 24th November
Last Snowfall 12th March
Falling Snow 32 days (most in a row 9)
Lying Snow 57 days (most in a row 51)
Ice Days 20 days
#5
Poots
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Posted 06 January 2012 - 11:43
It was -3c at 7am this morning and it's hovering around 0c at the moment, pressure up now and the sun is out, albeit a bit watery. Being honest, although I am missing a bit of snow action, I'm so happy to see a few calm, cold and crisp days ahead and being able to hear myself think at night without things constantly hitting off the window.
"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces up, snow is exhilarating; there is no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather"
#6
LomondSnowstorm
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Posted 06 January 2012 - 12:40
Once again there are changes in FI from yesterday, which isn't exactly a novel phenomenon.
Up to +192 hours there's good agreement for the moment though, with troughing backing east, pressure still too high over Europe for my liking and the Aleutian ridge moving into the Arctic http://hw.nwstatic.c...186/npsh500.png http://hw.nwstatic.c...npsh500.192.png
Up to 240 hours out, cool/cold zonality looks like it might make a return, with the Arctic high becoming more dominant and the PV being shunted into the area to our northwest http://hw.nwstatic.c...240/npsh500.png http://hw.nwstatic.c...npsh500.240.png
The control run has a particularly extreme looking form of this rather akin to early January 1993 (or last December, for example) http://176.31.229.22...s-0-1-240.png?6
The ensemble mean supports this too http://176.31.229.22...-21-1-240.png?6
The ensembles for central Scotland http://176.31.229.22...26413&runpara=0 (netweather hasn't updated yet).
Cool to cold, with very few mild runs, but most likely from the north or northwest rather than the east.
There are still ways to get to a more prolonged and severe cold spell from there though e.g. http://176.31.229.22...-14-1-264.png?6
I'd suggest that the most likely way to get there would come from jet amplification causing the Azores high to ridge north and link with the Arctic high rather than the Arctic high simply shunting everything southwards. For that you need amplification in the jet, and there are tentative signs of this, but really at this stage all I can conclude is a) settled and reasonably mild next week and probably turning colder and more unsettled after that.
Up to +192 hours there's good agreement for the moment though, with troughing backing east, pressure still too high over Europe for my liking and the Aleutian ridge moving into the Arctic http://hw.nwstatic.c...186/npsh500.png http://hw.nwstatic.c...npsh500.192.png
Up to 240 hours out, cool/cold zonality looks like it might make a return, with the Arctic high becoming more dominant and the PV being shunted into the area to our northwest http://hw.nwstatic.c...240/npsh500.png http://hw.nwstatic.c...npsh500.240.png
The control run has a particularly extreme looking form of this rather akin to early January 1993 (or last December, for example) http://176.31.229.22...s-0-1-240.png?6
The ensemble mean supports this too http://176.31.229.22...-21-1-240.png?6
The ensembles for central Scotland http://176.31.229.22...26413&runpara=0 (netweather hasn't updated yet).
Cool to cold, with very few mild runs, but most likely from the north or northwest rather than the east.
There are still ways to get to a more prolonged and severe cold spell from there though e.g. http://176.31.229.22...-14-1-264.png?6
I'd suggest that the most likely way to get there would come from jet amplification causing the Azores high to ridge north and link with the Arctic high rather than the Arctic high simply shunting everything southwards. For that you need amplification in the jet, and there are tentative signs of this, but really at this stage all I can conclude is a) settled and reasonably mild next week and probably turning colder and more unsettled after that.
Lomond Snowstorm's 2011/12 Winter Forecast
Last Update Dec 30 2011 23:07
CatchMyDrift
Quote
The average Scot's melting point is 21C
Quote
By Tor
Lets face it LS, we'd all sell our grandmothers for a snow-flake
Lets face it LS, we'd all sell our grandmothers for a snow-flake
The snowfall of November/December 2010:
7 snow days
Maximum depth: 15 inches
Days off school due to snow: 5
Total days in 2010 off due to snow: 6
Total days in my lifetime off due to snow: 9
#7
lorenzo
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Posted 06 January 2012 - 12:42
Looking quite settled for the weekend, it is interesting watching the models handle on the pattern change and how the runs being delivered contain just about nearly every solution available, hence my mention of the CPC outlook having at present very low confidence.
Matt mentions in his latest tweet that the ECM extended forecast hints at a more blocked outlook, this at the moment is for me the key evolution as the models continue the Azores Ridge / localised PV set up, which in turn keeps that Jet firing away at us.
The NH blocking chart here shows the much mentioned Aleutian high and the resulting amplification changes are the ones being toyed with in the overall pattern.
The Jet out to FI runs continues the flatter zonal approach, you can see the battering over the last month on the other graphic below.
Teleconnections are beginning to show up some subtle changes, whether these continue to trend negative or hover around neutral, time will tell..
Matt mentions in his latest tweet that the ECM extended forecast hints at a more blocked outlook, this at the moment is for me the key evolution as the models continue the Azores Ridge / localised PV set up, which in turn keeps that Jet firing away at us.
The NH blocking chart here shows the much mentioned Aleutian high and the resulting amplification changes are the ones being toyed with in the overall pattern.
The Jet out to FI runs continues the flatter zonal approach, you can see the battering over the last month on the other graphic below.
Teleconnections are beginning to show up some subtle changes, whether these continue to trend negative or hover around neutral, time will tell..
#8
edodfc
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Posted 06 January 2012 - 14:12
ECM extended has been fairly good so far this season from following matts comments throughout winter but as Matt says only hints.... but I will take hints as thats all there ever is in early days pattern change....IMBY cold zonality not really hitting the spot....January 93 floods after the mega snow nearly wiped Perth off the map last time which did not bother me as I was in Dundee 
I think things are building nicely towards a second half winter as many respected forecasters were predicting so I am quite relaxed with how winter is panning out.....to be honest anything majorly snowy is a bonus as after the last couple of years of being spoiled the law of averages led me to be unexpectant....however the weather does not care for the law of averages.....
AS LS says pressure has just been incredibly high over Europe and still showing little signs of movement
http://176.31.229.22...s-0-1-240.png?6 That is certainly the most extreme chart I have seen this winter.....u never know
Pressure remaining fairly high in the foreseeable but still little in the way of cold overnight temps or frosts in this area with temps at 6 degrees tomorrow midnight so quite a boring spell of weather but welcome for many who have suffered damage to their properties
http://www.weatheron...V=0&WMO=
I think things are building nicely towards a second half winter as many respected forecasters were predicting so I am quite relaxed with how winter is panning out.....to be honest anything majorly snowy is a bonus as after the last couple of years of being spoiled the law of averages led me to be unexpectant....however the weather does not care for the law of averages.....AS LS says pressure has just been incredibly high over Europe and still showing little signs of movement
http://176.31.229.22...s-0-1-240.png?6 That is certainly the most extreme chart I have seen this winter.....u never know
Pressure remaining fairly high in the foreseeable but still little in the way of cold overnight temps or frosts in this area with temps at 6 degrees tomorrow midnight so quite a boring spell of weather but welcome for many who have suffered damage to their properties
http://www.weatheron...V=0&WMO=
Winter 11/12
First Snowfall 04/12/11
Last Snowfall 19/01/12
Falling Snow 6 (most in a row 3)
Lying Snow 1
Ice Days TBC
Winter 10/11
First Snowfall 24th November
Last Snowfall 12th March
Falling Snow 32 days (most in a row 9)
Lying Snow 57 days (most in a row 51)
Ice Days 20 days
First Snowfall 04/12/11
Last Snowfall 19/01/12
Falling Snow 6 (most in a row 3)
Lying Snow 1
Ice Days TBC
Winter 10/11
First Snowfall 24th November
Last Snowfall 12th March
Falling Snow 32 days (most in a row 9)
Lying Snow 57 days (most in a row 51)
Ice Days 20 days
#9
edodfc
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Posted 06 January 2012 - 15:37
AWT or anyone with time and knowledge to spare..... how do you identify a pattern of weather as a brief polar maritime incursion? google does not seem to provide any decent links to an understanable explanation.
Winter 11/12
First Snowfall 04/12/11
Last Snowfall 19/01/12
Falling Snow 6 (most in a row 3)
Lying Snow 1
Ice Days TBC
Winter 10/11
First Snowfall 24th November
Last Snowfall 12th March
Falling Snow 32 days (most in a row 9)
Lying Snow 57 days (most in a row 51)
Ice Days 20 days
First Snowfall 04/12/11
Last Snowfall 19/01/12
Falling Snow 6 (most in a row 3)
Lying Snow 1
Ice Days TBC
Winter 10/11
First Snowfall 24th November
Last Snowfall 12th March
Falling Snow 32 days (most in a row 9)
Lying Snow 57 days (most in a row 51)
Ice Days 20 days
#10
Hairy Celt
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Posted 06 January 2012 - 16:12
Sunny, icy start then sleety showers, now grey & mild and wet. Went out with five layers on, came back with two middle layers discarded. Hmm, normal mid-winter weather then, after last year's and the year before's attempts to fool us that old-fashioned winters were back. The demise of the Xmas decorations isn't helping my mood either, I was enjoying my little sessions of playing with the different flashing sequences... 
Sod summer & the flying parasites, ice is nice.
#11
Norrance
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Posted 06 January 2012 - 16:19
edodfc, on 06 January 2012 - 15:37 , said:
AWT or anyone with time and knowledge to spare..... how do you identify a pattern of weather as a brief polar maritime incursion? google does not seem to provide any decent links to an understanable explanation.
Edited by Norrance, 06 January 2012 - 16:20 .
#12
edodfc
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Posted 06 January 2012 - 16:23
Norrance, on 06 January 2012 - 16:19 , said:
Try TWS 's guides to Winter patterns. PM air will be covered in one of the zonal entries. Link below. http://forum.netweat...-winter-setups/
great cheers..... I have used the guide to models etc which have been very helpful
Winter 11/12
First Snowfall 04/12/11
Last Snowfall 19/01/12
Falling Snow 6 (most in a row 3)
Lying Snow 1
Ice Days TBC
Winter 10/11
First Snowfall 24th November
Last Snowfall 12th March
Falling Snow 32 days (most in a row 9)
Lying Snow 57 days (most in a row 51)
Ice Days 20 days
First Snowfall 04/12/11
Last Snowfall 19/01/12
Falling Snow 6 (most in a row 3)
Lying Snow 1
Ice Days TBC
Winter 10/11
First Snowfall 24th November
Last Snowfall 12th March
Falling Snow 32 days (most in a row 9)
Lying Snow 57 days (most in a row 51)
Ice Days 20 days
#13
lorenzo
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Posted 06 January 2012 - 16:31
edodfc, on 06 January 2012 - 15:37 , said:
AWT or anyone with time and knowledge to spare..... how do you identify a pattern of weather as a brief polar maritime incursion? google does not seem to provide any decent links to an understanable explanation.
Edodfc, here are a couple of links from the Learning area that are useful at answering your question.
Airmasses
Winter Set Ups
#14
edodfc
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Posted 06 January 2012 - 16:48
lorenzo, on 06 January 2012 - 16:31 , said:
Edodfc, here are a couple of links from the Learning area that are useful at answering your question.
Airmasses
Winter Set Ups
Airmasses
Winter Set Ups
perfect many thanks that was a particularly straightforward read on airmasses....I should have realised the simplest answers would be within this site...
on another note and O/T except its fimed in snowy conditions what do people make of these "UFO's"?
http://news.stv.tv/s...-online-debate/
Winter 11/12
First Snowfall 04/12/11
Last Snowfall 19/01/12
Falling Snow 6 (most in a row 3)
Lying Snow 1
Ice Days TBC
Winter 10/11
First Snowfall 24th November
Last Snowfall 12th March
Falling Snow 32 days (most in a row 9)
Lying Snow 57 days (most in a row 51)
Ice Days 20 days
First Snowfall 04/12/11
Last Snowfall 19/01/12
Falling Snow 6 (most in a row 3)
Lying Snow 1
Ice Days TBC
Winter 10/11
First Snowfall 24th November
Last Snowfall 12th March
Falling Snow 32 days (most in a row 9)
Lying Snow 57 days (most in a row 51)
Ice Days 20 days
#15
lorenzo
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Posted 06 January 2012 - 17:06
That looks like a trick of the light between the camera, the windscreen and the approaching car headlights.
#16
Northern Strath
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Posted 06 January 2012 - 18:05
Overcast and calm here today and sat at 4.8C for most of the day, even milder now at 6.8C
Aye i'm fairly open minded with these sorts of things but I don't think it's coincidental that the 'ufo's' appear at the time the car passes
lorenzo, on 06 January 2012 - 17:06 , said:
That looks like a trick of the light between the camera, the windscreen and the approaching car headlights.
Aye i'm fairly open minded with these sorts of things but I don't think it's coincidental that the 'ufo's' appear at the time the car passes
#17
LomondSnowstorm
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Posted 06 January 2012 - 21:00
And once again the mid atlantic ridge returns to our screens http://hw.nwstatic.c.../ecm500.240.png
Things are looking less certain than ever tonight, so I'm not even going to bother picking my way through it tonight. Maybe this adds more validity JH's 'compare 12Zs to 12Zs' idea as the charts look more similar to yesterday's than this morning's runs. I'll give a full update tomorrow evening.
Things are looking less certain than ever tonight, so I'm not even going to bother picking my way through it tonight. Maybe this adds more validity JH's 'compare 12Zs to 12Zs' idea as the charts look more similar to yesterday's than this morning's runs. I'll give a full update tomorrow evening.
Lomond Snowstorm's 2011/12 Winter Forecast
Last Update Dec 30 2011 23:07
CatchMyDrift
Quote
The average Scot's melting point is 21C
Quote
By Tor
Lets face it LS, we'd all sell our grandmothers for a snow-flake
Lets face it LS, we'd all sell our grandmothers for a snow-flake
The snowfall of November/December 2010:
7 snow days
Maximum depth: 15 inches
Days off school due to snow: 5
Total days in 2010 off due to snow: 6
Total days in my lifetime off due to snow: 9
#18
lorenzo
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Posted 06 January 2012 - 21:13
LomondSnowstorm, on 06 January 2012 - 21:00 , said:
And once again the mid atlantic ridge returns to our screens http://hw.nwstatic.c.../ecm500.240.png
Things are looking less certain than ever tonight, so I'm not even going to bother picking my way through it tonight. Maybe this adds more validity JH's 'compare 12Zs to 12Zs' idea as the charts look more similar to yesterday's than this morning's runs. I'll give a full update tomorrow evening.
Things are looking less certain than ever tonight, so I'm not even going to bother picking my way through it tonight. Maybe this adds more validity JH's 'compare 12Zs to 12Zs' idea as the charts look more similar to yesterday's than this morning's runs. I'll give a full update tomorrow evening.
Today has been a rollercoaster from 00z to 12z, I cannot even begin to imagine what solution the 18z will deliver. Everything on the table. That Atlantic cut off low is worth a watch though, the only thing in the forseeable NWP to de-rail the zonal train !
#19
Norrance
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Posted 06 January 2012 - 21:21
lorenzo, on 06 January 2012 - 21:13 , said:
Today has been a rollercoaster from 00z to 12z, I cannot even begin to imagine what solution the 18z will deliver. Everything on the table. That Atlantic cut off low is worth a watch though, the only thing in the forseeable NWP to de-rail the zonal train !
#20
Cheggers
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Posted 06 January 2012 - 21:38
Evening all. I see the models are being their normal self .
Just drove up the A9 and lots of snow from Dunkeld to Aviemore, and patches across the Dava. Lots of drizzle, and temps ranging from 2c to 8c here in Forres.
. Just drove up the A9 and lots of snow from Dunkeld to Aviemore, and patches across the Dava. Lots of drizzle, and temps ranging from 2c to 8c here in Forres.
I WANT SUN
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