Atlantic Storms - January Part 2

[Liam J]

Brave souls venturing out on bikes this morning, perhaps they will think twice next time before cycling in gale force winds. It's a good thing they weren't on the main roads as that could have ended in disaster.

Much lighter winds now with gusts typically touching 30mph from the NW, mean speeds around 20mph.

[Liam J]

Looking ahead to Wednesday for the next windy period of weather as a cold front crosses the country associated with a large depression situated in the North Atlantic. At this stage nothing too severe likely with wind gusts between 40-60mph ahead of the cold front and during it's passage Wednesday afternoon.

Gusts 50-60mph through the Irish sea, 40-50mph further south and east.

Strong winds transferring eastwards.

jet stream.

Cloud cover & precipitation

Edited January 23, 2012 by Liam J

[Liam J]

A wet & windy day is still on the cards during Wednesday as we see a cold front moving across the UK from the west. The strongest winds will be towards the north & west of the country just ahead of the front, the strongest winds then transferring to NE Scotland through the afternoon.

Sometimes in these set ups the gusts can be underestimated, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few gusts over 60mph being recorded at some exposed locations as the cold front moves through.

Also I wouldn't rule out the possibility of forced convection along the front with strong ascents and wind shear possibilities being modelled. This would bring the risk of heavy rainfall, hail stones and thunder and lightening, along with convective wind gusts 50-60knts.

Gusts around 50mph inland over Ireland as the front approaches from the Atlantic.

Cold front pushing east.

Gusts 50-60mph through the Irish Sea affecting adjacent coastal locations.

Strongest winds moving NE to affect Scotland, 50-60mph gusts.

gusts around 30-40mph+ over Central England, over 60mph through N Scotland.

Cold front heading east with intense ppn embedded.

Edited January 24, 2012 by Liam J

[Coast]

Sometimes in these set ups the gusts can be underestimated, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few gusts over 60mph being recorded at some exposed locations as the cold front moves through.

Could this be the last hurrah from the Atlantic for a while now???????

[Liam J]

Could this be the last hurrah from the Atlantic for a while now???????

I would say yes but after the last two GFS runs things aren't so certain anymore! On the fence for the time being.

Although it's not looking overly severe I'm still looking forward to tomorrows event.

Edited January 24, 2012 by Liam J

[Aaron]

We are (or were) being forecast a thundery shower for tomorrow

[Coast]

We are (or were) being forecast a thundery shower for tomorrow

I alluded to this yesterday in the convective thread:

[Liam J]

I said that it shouldn't be ruled out, the risk is low but it's still a possibility and more than 0%. The Netweather storm probability risk using the GFS/NMM data is showing parts of the UK ranging anywhere from 5% up to 26% risk of thundery activity during Wednesday towards the north and west. The risk increases to 30-40% for Thursday in places.

Edited January 24, 2012 by Liam J

[Interitus]

There were some very strong gusts late on Wednesday evening and through Thursday morning. Here are some of the strongest recorded gusts so far: High Bradfield: 93 mph; Capel Curig: 87 mph; Shap, Port Ellen: 82 mph; Keswick: 78 mph; Dundrennan: 76 mph; Leeds/Bradford Airport: 75 mph; St Bees Head, Magilligan: 70 mph; Scampton, Linton-on-Ouse: 69 mph; Aberdaron: 68 mph; Wattisham: 67 mph; Langdon Bay, Weybourne, Ronaldsway: 66 mph; Southampton, Solent, Isle of Portland: 62 mph. Issued at 1100 on Thu 05 Jan 2012.

I apologise for going off topic but this is the only post I have seen referring to this new Met site which had passed me by. It was brought in to replace Ballykelly for the purpose of the winter cold payments - but controversially it is a slightly warmer location.

[Liam J]

Southerly winds are increasing ahead of the cold front now with 50-60mph+ gusts being recorded over Western Ireland. Also becoming windy through the Irish Sea and other western mainland locations.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Edited January 25, 2012 by Liam J

[Coast]

Worst of it looks to be mid afternoon for a couple of hours:

[Liam J]

Gale force winds affecting parts of Ireland and Western Scotland. I see the K5 buoy is now into the colder air and reporting 3c with a dew of 1c, not so sure about the sustained wind speed of 112mph!! This seems to happen everyday around the same time.

Becoming quite windy here now, southerly winds around 25mph with gusts to 40mph.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Edited January 25, 2012 by Liam J

[Zenarcher]

Gale force winds affecting parts of Ireland and Western Scotland. I see the K5 buoy is now into the colder air and reporting 3c with a dew of 1c, not so sure about the sustained wind speed of 112mph!! This seems to happen everyday around the same time.

Becoming quite windy here now, southerly winds around 25mph with gusts to 40mph.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Windy here at the moment getting gusts just over 55mph. I'm expecting it to drop down after 3pm.

[Liam J]

Windy here at the moment getting gusts just over 55mph. I'm expecting it to drop down after 3pm.

Potentially worse for your location this evening mate, this is just the beginning! Assuming the GFS is correct as it's out on it's own with these wind speeds, certainly interesting watching the Station obvservations later to see which model has this correct.

50-60mph gusts 9pm

60-70mph+ gusts 12am

Edited January 25, 2012 by Liam J

[Zenarcher]

Potentially worse for your location this evening mate, this is just the beginning! Assuming the GFS is correct as it;s out on it's own with these wind speeds.

50-60mph gusts 9pm

60-70mph+ gusts 12am

Yeah it does look very bad this evening for the Western Isles according to the GFS the worse should miss me but where Cookie is up North its looking very bad. Like I said though in the model output thread the NAE model doesn't show anything like this for tonight!

[Harps]

Haven't really been keeping a close eye on this but read this on an Irish forum yesterday which suggests that the hi-res models are performing poorly even in the immediate timeframe

http://www.boards.ie...&postcount=1388

Strong gusts here today on the north coast of Ireland but nothing too severe, heavy rain more of a feature. Seems to be a squall line developing on the east coast at the moment which might be of interest for the UK later

[Liam J]

Wind ramping up a bit more here, gusts of 50mph.

Quite drop in temp over the far west of Ireland behind the front, some locations down to 5c after an earlier max of 10/11c ahead of the font. It's looking quite organised on the latest radar images with possible squall line developing.

Edited January 25, 2012 by Liam J

[toggerob]

Met Office going for 50-60mph gusts on the Peak District mountain area advisories. Just going to see if any LEWP or convection inhibition lowers any straight-line winds to ground level as the front moves across the area in the evening hours. Should be some interesting photogenic convection going on tomorrow even without the winds in any case, something worth getting up early for.

[Zenarcher]

Still getting some strong gusts here into the low 60mph range. Looks like the wind is increasing up North as well. As expected the GFS has downgraded the winds for tonight but still shows very strong winds over Northern Scotland around midnight.

[Liam J]

Getting gusts around 55mph atm, quite a defined leading edge to the ppn showing on the latest radar imgaes, squall line developing?

Edited January 25, 2012 by Liam J

[Liam J]

The wind has died down significantly as the front continues it's journey eastwards. Had a small burst of hail about 15 mins ago but other than that just moderate rainfall along with rapidly falling temps. Currently 4.9c.

Been following another forum which are running a dedicated thread following the cold front. Reports of impressive squally conditions including hail stones and gusty winds.

Broken convective activity on the leading edge of the main frontal boundary indicating the strong low level shear, lively conditions heading eastwards for some of you.

Edited January 26, 2012 by Liam J