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Atlantic Storms - January Part 2


Liam J

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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

With stratospheric injection and tropical influences I reckon (imho) tomorrow could yet be another day where the models have grossly underestimated the strength of RACY as the system comes to our shores. Already the tropical influenced air aloft is having a effect on these showers packing in from the NW on a northerly, any other time you'd expect to see the precip falling as snow given the freezing layer is at 500m and sub-DAMs from the north. Yet rain and hail pellets from driven convection is a clear sign of the layers above.

Going to be another sleepless night tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

If the risk of wind gusts over 90mph existed for tomorrow then i'm sure we would have many warnings already issued, including the Meto who would be poised to issue another red alert!

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Posted
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL

If the risk of wind gusts over 90mph existed for tomorrow then i'm sure we would have many warnings already issued, including the Meto who would be poised to issue another red alert!

Liam, go to http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

Put the slider on 21:00 Hrs. On the far left edge of the image out in the atlantic (about half way down) is the strong bump of cloud which is tommorows next system. Now run it to the current time and watch the speed of that foreward edge. I have never seen anything even close to the incoming speed that this is showing... 500+ miles in 3 - 4 hrs??

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Posted
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia
  • Location: Bratislava, Slovakia

A sting jet in the Central Belt? Ouch.

It's been wild here pretty much all day, so it must have been real bad further north. There was an uprooted tree blocking a nearby road earlier on, and I also came across a traffic island ripped from its foundations. Just a short while ago I was subjected to a barrage of horizontal hail - not very comfortable it has to be said!

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Met office has much higher winds forecast for us today and overnight 58 mph compared too 49 mph, No warnings though.

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Posted
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire

Liam j

The problem with the new warning system is that it is completely inflexible. Yellow, Amber and Red is a stupid idea by the met.

Previously people knew what they where dealing with. (the percentage alerts).

They issue yellow and amber alerts for high winds, heavy snowfall, ice on the roads. As for red alerts...they state "prolonged period of very severe weather".this severe weather that is programmed to last more than 3 or more days in the week.

For me and I think a number of people, their warnings have been shocking poor under this new system they developed "for health care workers". They either need to go back to the more accurate and better informed percent warning with better warning system, or they need to follow the swedish warning model...afterall stockholm is hardly any different from most uk cities...snow is as about as likely as it is in London / Liverpool...1/5 winters...but they need to fix this dreadful, inaccurate and non informative mess they created, then they wouldn't be slated for inaccurately warning people..just my 2 cents

and it seems to be rather inarbitary when they issue warnings too, and what bizarre criteria do they warrant is necessary to move between yellow and amber? it seems any old number is good enough to issue an amber, and i think its extremely negligent the way they have shunted off red alert for an arbitary number of days of severe weather, when red should be used for extreme severe weather happening within 12/24 hours. You could have a tornado or hurricane cat 3 and theyd still issue yellow or amber...which is kind of my point.

Edited by HotCuppa
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Quite a game driving home and back into work this morning. Plenty of debris still on the roads, signs, branches etc and several trees have been sawn up and dumped at the side of the road, making it an obstacle course!

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

More to come overnight?

42_25.gif

48_25.gif

and into tomorrow?

54_25.gif

24_45.gif

24_21.gif

Not on the same scale as yesterday and not nearly as widespread, but still possibilities of something interesting in the South and East Anglia into Humberside?

hir_stp_eur27.png

hir_srh_eur27.png

hir_gusts_eur27.png

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

A westerly wind is blowing again this morning, nowhere near as bad as this time yesterday, however a significant increase is forecast later today. Gusts up to 66mph on the Met site.

Weatheronline continue to predict gusts in excess of 90mph today?! http://www.weatheron...ll&DAY=20120104

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

ESTOFEX also covering some of the UK in a level 1 later today:

post-6667-0-80580800-1325664449.png

Storm Forecast

Valid: Wed 04 Jan 2012 06:00 to Thu 05 Jan 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Tue 03 Jan 2012 23:24

Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for a broad area from the British Isles to NW Germany and S Sweden for severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

A very active baroclinic pattern will persist over most of Western and Northern Europe. Very deep low pressure system with central pressure below 970 hPa will progress from Southern Sweden towards Southern Finland during the forecast period. Weakening dynamics, e.g. strenght of the mid and upper level jet will have an adverse effect on the low, which is already well occluded and is expected to slowly fill. Another strong disturbance has started forming over the Atlantic, fueled by 80 m/s westerly to northwesterly 300 hPa jet-streak. Short wave developing in the exit region of the jet-streak will amplify during the day, as ridge begins to build over the Atlantic with prevailing flow becoming more northwesterly in nature. Again, deep low pressure system will be the result with very strong low level wind fields, especially in its warm sector. Center of the low will likely pass just to the north of the British Isles towards Southern Norway and Denmark.

DISCUSSION

... Morning hours Denmark, N Germany to S Sweden ...

Dry mid-level airmass characterised by high lapse rates will advect over the region with mild values of dew points from the proximity of the sea. Persisting very strong flow will continue to induce high values of wind shear, especially at lower levels. Marginal values of instability are predicted by most of the models for this region, especially for coastal areas. Post-frontal cellular convection will likely form, only very weakly electrified with chances of tornado due to the high values of LLS and low LCLs. Downdrafts can also help in slightly strenghtening the force of wind gusts. Despite high values of wind shear, marginal instability and weak dynamics at this stage preclude more significant threat and Level 1 is sufficient.

... Late evening and night hours British Isles to BENELUX, NW Germany and W Denmark...

With the arrival of another major baroclinic system, model fields suggest significant dry intrusion behind the jet-streak, possibly spreading partly over the low level warm sector of the surface low. As an interesting note, dry air is expected to penetrate below 700 hPa as suggested by GFS cross sections! A strongly forced convective line seems like a possibility, especially when taking into the account very strong dynamics of the system, even though instability will likely be only marginal at best. 850 hPa flow over 40 m/s ensures very strong wind shear at lower levels and points to the possibility of severe wind gusts and tornadoes within such line. Where exactly will such a line pass is a matter of question, on which models do not agree. Therefore a broad Level 1 is introduced to cover range of possibilities. An update with even an upgrade to Level 2 might follow during the day if situation becomes more certain.

post-6667-0-80580800-1325664449_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Are they hinting at the chance of the 850 wind values possibly reaching the ground as gusts from this? They might even upgrade to a level 2 later, not sure I have actually seen a level 2 over the UK? These ESTOFEX warnings are based on the percentage of 'extremely severe' weather occuring, I didn't notice what they issued yesterday, level 1?

Taking this into consideration Weatheronline predicting 90mph gusts doesn't sound OTT? Still can't see it myself, warnings would be in place already if that was the case, don't you think Coast?

The jet stream is as strong it gets later.

post-9615-0-82136400-1325665774_thumb.pn

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

Most of the UK was covered by a level 1 warning from ESTOFEX mostly for severe wind gusts, but the SE corner of the UK was covered by a level 2 yesterday for severe wind events including tornadoes.

post-5386-0-51194400-1325666433.txt

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

They might even upgrade to a level 2 later, not sure I have actually seen a level 2 over the UK? These ESTOFEX warnings are based on the percentage of 'extremely severe' weather occuring, I didn't notice what they issued yesterday, level 1?

Level 2 yesterday for the South East yesterday - probably appropriate given the outcome.

Taking this into consideration Weatheronline predicting 90mph gusts doesn't sound OTT? Still can't see it myself, warnings would be in place already if that was the case, don't you think Coast?

I take no joy in the fact that my 'sneaky feeling' that yesterday would be the worst so far, in our current run of Atlantic storms - The models had it covered quite well and the various agencies and organisations called it pretty much as it became, all things considered.

Indications on GFS point to gusts of 125 km/hr (77.7 mph) centring somewhere around Harlow (ish) later tonight early tomorrow and up to 137 km/hr (85.1mph) just over the water in Holland, so they might only be 10 to 15 mph out?

post-6667-0-28896000-1325667096.gif

Sustained winds in the North Sea crank up again tonight and look to affect all of the bordering coastal area - especially Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk and Humberside and Yorkshire:

42_10.gif

windsym.gif

There might be 50 to 60 mph winds in the English Channel.

post-6667-0-28896000-1325667096_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Just trying to broaden the sources a little, here is what UKMO have via 21st OWS:

21OWS_EUROPE_MODEL-DATA_UKMO-GLOBAL_WIND-MWA_SFC_24_00Z.png?{ts%20

NAE from Weatheronline:

12010503_0400.gif

Netweather's own NMM Hi-Res model for 03z tomorrow morning:

post-6667-0-76273500-1325668603.png

post-6667-0-76273500-1325668603_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Level 2 yesterday for the South East yesterday - probably appropriate given the outcome.

I take no joy in the fact that my 'sneaky feeling' that yesterday would be the worst so far, in our current run of Atlantic storms - The models had it covered quite well and the various agencies and organisations called it pretty much as it became, all things considered.

Indications on GFS point to gusts of 125 km/hr (77.7 mph) centring somewhere around Harlow (ish) later tonight early tomorrow and up to 137 km/hr (85.1mph) just over the water in Holland, so they might only be 10 to 15 mph out?

post-6667-0-28896000-1325667096.gif

There might be 50 to 60 mph winds in the English Channel.

Can't believe Scotland only had a level 1 with the sting jet ripping through the central belt bringing the strongest wind speeds anywhere in the UK yesterday, 90-100mph+

The gust chart you have posted also shows the same speeds over NW England, another very windy evening coming up, not good for sleeping!

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Convective stuff top of the list for me. GFS shear charts are unbelievable, even surpassing some of the black blobs over the UK, France and Germany late last year:

gfs_stp_eur27.png

Helicity peaks over much of Southern and Eastern England in the early hours tomorrow:

gfs_srh_eur27.png

GFS gusts cover a much bigger area and in line with yesterday's peaks:

gfs_gusts_eur27.png

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Convective stuff top of the list for me. GFS shear charts are unbelievable, even surpassing some of the black blobs over the UK, France and Germany late last year:

gfs_stp_eur27.png

Helicity peaks over much of Southern and Eastern England in the early hours tomorrow:

gfs_srh_eur27.png

GFS gusts cover a much bigger area and in line with yesterday's peaks:

gfs_gusts_eur27.png

Coast, those charts are truly scary. :help:

What risks do they represent? I am hoping Nick F could provide some analysis in here today as I imagine the wee hours of Thursday 5th January will become quite memorable/forgettable for some if they verify. Hell, they are within t+18 hours as well. This COULD become very newsworthy once again.

I am not trying to scaremonger here but folks should be made well aware of the POTENTIAL if living in the black region on your first map.

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Scary Regards

gottolovethisweather

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Posted
  • Location: Bishop's Stortford in England and Klingenmünster in Germany
  • Location: Bishop's Stortford in England and Klingenmünster in Germany

Slightly concerning this (note my UK location). The MetO though seem to be indicating though just a risk of gusts to 55 mph. No warnings issued. Is this, again, thought to be in conjunction with a squall line that will be coming through overnight, or is it more general?

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

No warnings are in force, so I expect things probably won't turn out to be to bad today, I don't think the charts represent surface wind conditions but indicate the risk of storm developments and potential tornado's so they probably appear worse at face value, or am I incorrect?

Model surface wind values are progging gusts around 50-60mph around southern coasts, 60-70mph over the Irish Sea and NW England.

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

What risks do they represent? I am hoping Nick F could provide some analysis in here today as I imagine the wee hours of Thursday 5th January will become quite memorable/forgettable for some if they verify. Hell, they are within t+18 hours as well. This COULD become very newsworthy once again.

Me too! As I understand it (which isn't that well!), there is a post warm-front effect which is very unstable and could bring considerable mid to low level shear and convective gusts anywhere from Eastern Yorkshire to Essex/London

Worth highlighting again the section in ESTOFEX's forecast as follows:

A strongly forced convective line seems like a possibility, especially when taking into the account very strong dynamics of the system, even though instability will likely be only marginal at best. 850 hPa flow over 40 m/s ensures very strong wind shear at lower levels and points to the possibility of severe wind gusts and tornadoes within such line. Where exactly will such a line pass is a matter of question, on which models do not agree.

Then there's the whole thing with surface shortwaves after the front, perhaps someone more knowledgeable could expand on this?

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

The jet stream is as strong it gets later.

It is flying isn't it?

LOC_20120104_0900.png

and rips down the North Sea during the time under consideration:

post-6667-0-80179300-1325673368.png

jetstream_atl_loop.gif

post-6667-0-80179300-1325673368_thumb.pn

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