634 replies to this topic

[Robbie Garrett]

I actually wouldn't mind a crap spring, so we can at least have a generally very decent but extremely hot summer, see if we can try match Dubai for temperatures

[robthefool]

Aaron, on 02 January 2012 - 15:56 , said:

A bit early?
Uh, no, this is not true, most places in the UK experience their coldest nights, on average, in February..

But I think we are overdue a cold Spring, like Mr Data said.. last time we got a good March snowfall was 2008..

Not most parts.. I know that in London this is definitely not true and in inland areas as well.

SP1986, on 02 January 2012 - 17:20 , said:

This is a very very crude way of looking at things (I'm not having a go at you by the way), it's something that people are taught and whilst it is generally true, coastal areas up north can start earlier in Spring than further down south in some cases (although even up here were behind the likes of Cornwall and the south coast). Often I speak to drivers who can testify that Manchester for example on the same latitude is 3-4 weeks behind here in terms of Spring growth. Also in the past 3 winters when I've travelled down to Birmingham I've noticed leaves grow on trees here a lot earlier than there.

As for Robs original post, I think he means not actually warming up, but starting to feel more Springlike. For example a day in Mid-January where it is approximately 8C with a clear and sunny sky can feel more Springlike than say the end of November or anytime in December - I hold this to be true, however I live in a mildish area where Spring comes earlier and days are often milder in westerly winds.

Yes, I understand what you mean.. I mean obviously the difference between February and January temperature wise is minuscule, but it can feel warmer, especially as the sun starts to gain some strength - a month really does make a difference as the sun has the same strength as it has in October in February

[Dorsetbred]

robthefool said:

. I mean obviously the difference between February and January temperature wise is minuscule, but it can feel warmer, especially as the sun starts to gain some strength - a month really does make a difference as the sun has the same strength as it has in October in February

That's well true for the south of the UK, down here it's really noticeable that Feb is already warming nicely.

[Milhouse]

Late February in years gone by has delivered some warmth, not just from the southwest but increasing warmth can be sourced from off the continent brought by southeries from North Africa. Mid February 2008 and late February 2003 are examples.

[Tellow]

Milhouse, on 02 January 2012 - 18:55 , said:

Late February in years gone by has delivered some warmth, not just from the southwest but increasing warmth can be sourced from off the continent brought by southeries from North Africa. Mid February 2008 and late February 2003 are examples.

But other late Februaries/early Marches can bring battleground snowfall. One thing I've noticed in ones like 2004 and 2005 is that you can get overnight snowfall followed by a thaw in the day, then a reload and repeat at night.

[Milhouse]

I remember the late February 2005 cold spell quite well even though we didn't get that much snow here due to it mostly falling during the day and quickly melting. I remember thinking that all the cold and snow potential had been mounting throughout the winter and was unleashed just as signs of spring were about to appear. Very much to serve as a reminder that winter wasn't over yet.

[Geordiesnow]

SP1986, on 02 January 2012 - 17:20 , said:

As for Robs original post, I think he means not actually warming up, but starting to feel more Springlike. For example a day in Mid-January where it is approximately 8C with a clear and sunny sky can feel more Springlike than say the end of November or anytime in December - I hold this to be true, however I live in a mildish area where Spring comes earlier and days are often milder in westerly winds.

How do you come to that conclusion Stephen? The suns strength would be more or less the same and in the Northern Hemisphere sea temps would be cooler so in theory, a polar westerly in January would be colder than it will be in late November-Early December. You can feel the suns strength more between mid-late Feb onwards but on the other hand, we could get potent PM airmass over us so the temperature will be very low despite the warmer sun.

Anyways I like others hope for a cooler April so it bucks the trend somewhat and one thing I like about spring is that we can even get snow showers from a NW'ly due to the sun strength and a cold airmass over land developing shower clouds. I always remember the incident in April 2008(?) where we had showers during the day but in the afternoon we had one shower which started as rain which turned into very heavy snow but the ground was too warm/wet for anything to settle yet I remember the Sunderland-Fulham game being abandaned because of a waterlogged pitch.

[summer blizzard]

summer blizzard, on 02 January 2012 - 14:01 , said:

Cooler than average March in my opinion with a slightly above average April and May about 1C above average.

A poor start to summer is also likely in my opinion.

Should have mentioned the weather types i expect.

March and April i expect to feature a fairly negative -AO with mainly northerly and easterly winds (easterlies in April could of course be quite warm which is why i went for a near average outcome). May i expect to see a more southerly and easterly element as the trough backs west into the Atlantic although the polar cell remains fairly strong (i think a spring/summer peak of the -QBO will mean a fairly late final warming again).

At this stage i am also leaning towards a wet start to summer.

[Milhouse]

One thing is for sure Spring wont be warmer than last year. It surely cant be, barring an absolute miracle that we break the record for the warmest Spring in consecutive years. If you just work on averages and the weather balancing itself out, we are most definately due an average Spring, possibly even a cooler one, so whilst a repeat of 2006 or 2008 would be a lot different to last year it shouldnt come as a shock. Spring is a season of transition anyway with snowfall historically falling in March and even in April. It just seems that in recent years we have fast forwarded to late Spring/early Summer in March, which we shouldnt expect to happen every year. However we seem to be living in interesting times so i'm not betting against yet another drier and warmer than average season.

[summer blizzard]

I would also add that statistically the coldest CET day is February 4th and the warmest CET day April 12th (Phillip Eden calculated once).

[SP1986]

Geordiesnow, on 02 January 2012 - 20:16 , said:

How do you come to that conclusion Stephen? The suns strength would be more or less the same and in the Northern Hemisphere sea temps would be cooler so in theory, a polar westerly in January would be colder than it will be in late November-Early December. You can feel the suns strength more between mid-late Feb onwards but on the other hand, we could get potent PM airmass over us so the temperature will be very low despite the warmer sun.

It's not so much about temperatures, but I can be absolutely sure when it comes to February that unless there is a period of notable cold spells, it does genuinely start to feel springlike - feeling is not something you can attach statistics to, so it's going to be almost impossible to come to any kind of conclusion.

It's probably due in some part to a sun that is gathering strength, after a weak sun during November and December the pick up probably causes a psychological reaction whereby things feel more positive, or Springlike in terms of light etc.

[reef]

We havent had a spring more than 1C below the 30 year average since 1986 and only three out of the last 24 springs have been below average at all. For that reason Id like a cold one, especially after the relative tedium of homogenous warmth in 2007, 2009 and 2011. I would also like it to be snowy when I get married on 30th March.

It'll be unpopular on here if we get a cold one of course, but from a weather enthusiast's point of view it would be very interesting indeed (not that I didnt find April 2007 and 2011 interesting, but everything in moderation!).

[AderynCoch]

I agree. I'm bored of warm Aprils now. Give us a cold one.

[damianslaw]

Tellow, on 02 January 2012 - 14:27 , said:

"Technically speaking" the coldest day could be anytime. I think we are referring to when the coldest day is most likely to occur.

Anyway, the favourite thing about Spring for me is the warm days coupled with the cool nights. Always fascinating for me watching temperature on my weather station rise quickly as the day progresses / drop off quickly as the night draws in. A frosty morning followed by 17c in the afternoon is always nice. In Autumn the opposite applies with maxima of 17c likely to coupled with a minima of around 12/13c or more.

Yes the increased diurnal ranges are always good to see with cold frosty sub freezing nights followed by maxima in the high teens - such conditions feel very continental and often occur in the early part of spring under anticyclonic conditions with high pressure directly overhead.

I remain in winter mode until mid February - so in this respect won't be contributing to this particular thread until then. However, I will say how advanced plants and trees are at present - buds showing everywhere, daffodil shoots poking out highly. Not sure which plant has yellow flowers on it - think it is gorse or broom but the plant was yellow today at 200m in the Troutbeck Valley - very odd. Also loads of blackbirds keep singing in the middle of the night - not sure what this is all about. Have a feeling this advanced state will come to a crashing halt soon - mother nature always balances herself.

[SP1986]

An average April might be a good start point, lots of showers, especially in the southeast.

ps; Damian, Gorse always flowers at this time of year, it's normal.

[Tellow]

summer blizzard, on 02 January 2012 - 21:33 , said:

I would also add that statistically the coldest CET day is February 4th and the warmest CET day April 12th (Phillip Eden calculated once).

Quite surprised that April has the warmest CET day, with the cool Spring nights.

damianslaw, on 02 January 2012 - 22:50 , said:

Yes the increased diurnal ranges are always good to see with cold frosty sub freezing nights followed by maxima in the high teens - such conditions feel very continental and often occur in the early part of spring under anticyclonic conditions with high pressure directly overhead.

...

Yes, it also sort of reminds me of the Death Valley in late Autumn or early Spring.

Edited by Tellow, 03 January 2012 - 00:58 .

[syed2878]

I hope we get a warm spring and a hot summer. I'm not too keen on a cold spring unless it has a day or 2 with snow.

[Eugene]

I wouldnt mind winter first.

It felt like spring here many times in the second half of december.

The UK now has no properly defined seasons and they arent much different at all nowadays, very boring indeed.

[Eugene]

Quote

How do you come to that conclusion Stephen? The suns strength would be more or less the same and in the Northern Hemisphere sea temps would be cooler so in theory, a polar westerly in January would be colder than it will be in late November-Early December. You can feel the suns strength more between mid-late Feb onwards but on the other hand, we could get potent PM airmass over us so the temperature will be very low despite the warmer sun.

Yes geordie its absolute nonsense to say it can feel more springlike in mid january than late november when sun strength is the same, if he meant mid feb i would agree but not only mid january whicch is only a week away if mid jan starts the 10th and it definately wont feel warmer than than the last week of november with the same conditions, actually because of colder sea temps/soil temps i feel mid jan feels ever so slightly cooler than late november, you see more insects around in late nov than mid jan.

Got to say this is a strange time to start such a thread when its felt like spring already this winter and you wouldnt start autumn threads in only very early July when heat can last until october 1st like last year.

[Alex]

Spring last year was amazing but I hope summer is nice this year. We are surely now overdue a dry sunny summer! And with the exception of 2009, I can't remember a good August recently.