884 replies to this topic

[bluearmy]

shedhead, on 01 January 2012 - 11:37 , said:

Depends what train you are talking about BA. If it's the Pinappple Express, I think it will pretty much keep to schedule across the next week or so, the TGV looks a better prospect but will probably travel southwards too far east, but if you are referring to the TSR it's still broken down in Vladivostock and looks unlikely to get the required parts until February... but even by that time I sincerely doubt I'll be in my trunks!

glad you 'picked up the baton' shed and didnt take my post the wrong way. is anyone out there who is qualified to comment on my different take on the end of the 06z op to ian's ???

[phil n.warks.]

A Happy New Year to everyone from me too.

I have just quickly glanced through the output so far,but it seems that the later frames are showing the vortex under pressure.
We still have some way to go and look likely to remain in this westerly regime for the next 10days at least,but probably more under the influence of the high as we go into week 2.

http://hw.nwstatic.c...192/h500slp.png
http://hw.nwstatic.c.../ecm500.192.png

The troughing into Europe looks well modelled now and will help to keep the high from extending East.
Beyond this evolution the readjustment in the shape of the vortex is still uncertain but it`s looks as if iit`s coming under increasing pressure from recent warmings and mid-month still looks to be the time when the pattern will evolve into something different.

[Tim Bland]

GFS op finaly now in line with ensembles. Lots of support for a cold spell around mid month!

[shedhead]

bluearmy, on 01 January 2012 - 11:40 , said:

glad you 'picked up the baton' shed and didnt take my post the wrong way. is anyone out there who is qualified to comment on my different take on the end of the 06z op to ian's ???

As phil has just said and I'll directly quote here.... 'mid-month still looks to be the time when the pattern will evolve into something different'

I don't think there are many on here who would argue with this line, it's looking about as inevitable as anything does with weather in the 10 day+ timeframe, the only real question now
is what effect will the changes have on the weather across this little island.

Of course it's easy to assume that as a change is coming that change will be a profound and radical one towards cold, but it might just as easily be a small, subtle one to something drier
and more settled. One thing is certain, nature always balances itself out, but it never does so across set timescales. I think the most likely senario to emerge through week two is rising
pressure, with the main centre being to the SW, very much as indicated in the GFS FI and allued to by Ian. January should end up being a good deal drier in the west, where many desperately
need a break from incessant rain, but later in the month I still feel we'll get HP building in the right places to give us a proper shot at some wintry weather. As ever tho, time will tell.

Edited by shedhead, 01 January 2012 - 11:58 .

[Jackone]

A new thread for a new year.

http://forum.netweat...st-7th-january/