884 replies to this topic

[nick sussex]

happy days, on 26 December 2011 - 16:34 , said:

12ZGFS actually builds a stronger vortex over Greenland than the 6z did.
Really intense vortex is going to take some shifting!!

The GFS isn't backed by the UKMO, the latter is much more amplified upstream.

http://www.meteociel...=144&carte=1021

Compare that to the GFS 12hrs:

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=1

I'd dismiss the GFS 12hrs operational run especially as the pattern is expected to amplify in the medium term.

[feb1991blizzard]

happy days, on 26 December 2011 - 16:34 , said:

12ZGFS actually builds a stronger vortex over Greenland than the 6z did.
Really intense vortex is going to take some shifting!!

At least it backs westward towards the end of the run though with some sort of height rise over greeny,

Edited by feb1991blizzard, 26 December 2011 - 16:50 .

[happy days]

feb1991blizzard, on 26 December 2011 - 16:49 , said:

At least it backs westward towards the end of the run though with some sort of height rise over greeny,

?
I dont see anything other than zonal and +NAO on GFS.
Its almost asif the gfs is on auto zonal pilot.

[Brum Watcher]

12z GFS not improved, but backtracking, keeping high over the south UK till the end...cannot see changes in the reliable timeframe either.

[weatherguy]

Tasty looking FI being shown on the ECM today, and it's quite stubborn with the general pattern change (formation of an arctic high, and a more amplified upstream pattern) over the last few runs:



Lovely bit of eye candy above to cheer up those feeling a little down from the zonal dross of the GFS...

[karyo]

weatherguy, on 26 December 2011 - 17:01 , said:

Tasty looking FI being shown on the ECM today

Lovely bit of eye candy above to cheer up those feeling a little down from the zonal dross of the GFS...

As long it shows the same on the 12z...

Karyo

[Brum Watcher]

ECM on the opposite of GFS, can someone advice me why the models are differing so much in output. ECM seem to be on a pattern change and GFS keeps it the way it is now till the end of the run. is this still a mild outlier??

[shedhead]

The 12 GFS is another ugly run for cold, with a really deep PV and high pressure dominant across Iberia. The pattern is starting to look increasingly well set to me, so we really do need ECM to keep it's long term northern hemispheric evolution on track this evening, because a switch back to a GFS style outlook will be a real kick in the baubles.

Edited by shedhead, 26 December 2011 - 17:32 .

[TomSE20]

Yes, Nick

Much more amplification from the UKMO 12z with a much more defined trough pushing south from the Great Lakes.

Lets hope that the ECM 12z shows a similar pattern developing.

Have to say, far too much doom and gloom on here, my calendar tells me its 26th of December today!

Congratulations to Kauto Star and connections, absolutely brilliant! Sorry mods, had to get that in.

Regards,
Tom.

[nick sussex]

TomSE20, on 26 December 2011 - 17:40 , said:

Yes, Nick

Much more amplification from the UKMO 12z with a much more defined trough pushing south from the Great Lakes.

Lets hope that the ECM 12z shows a similar pattern developing.

Have to say, far too much doom and gloom on here, my calendar tells me its 26th of December today!

Congratulations to Kauto Star and connections, absolutely brilliant! Sorry mods, had to get that in.

Regards,
Tom.

Given the output out so far this evening the GFS looks the odd one out in terms of its upstream pattern and especially as the UKMO backs the amplified troughing I'd expect the ECM to follow suit.

More importantly is whether the ECM continues to advertise the split PV with those pressure rises over the pole in its later output.

[West is Best]

Not sure that any of the models are very different from the GFS. The ECM and UKMO still have whopping Iberian / Bartlett high to our south and with that in place the most we can anticipate at the moment are a few north-westerly incursions with some snow for the north esp hills and sleety and blustery hail / snow showers occasionally further south.

April weather really.

[wolvesfan]

Evening all,
Hope ECM dosn't trend towards GFS on tonights run,it really is carrying our hopes at the moment as the GFS truly is dire for cold.

Many a cold winter has followed a mild spell like the one we are seeing at the moment,we do need to see a change soon though and hopefully ECM is leading the way in regards to a pattern change,it won't be the first time its been quickest off the mark.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Having viewed the 12z ensembles I wouldn't go as far as to say it was an outlier but it was one of the warmer runs with the vast majority including the control run going for lower 850's, lower presure and lower 2m temperatures. Not sure what to make of the GFS really, yesterday it was showing some lovely mid atlantic blocking and gave us all a cheer up, today its back to the zonal train. Really hope tonights 12z ECM continues where it left off this morning with continued high rises over the pole.

http://hw.nwstatic.c...incolnshire.png

Edited by Grimsby Snow Lover, 26 December 2011 - 18:03 .

[nick sussex]

The ECM at 120hrs doesn't back the GFS, some big differences especially towards the west coast of the USA and Canada with a much more amplified trough.

ECM:

http://www.meteociel...map=1&archive=0

GFS:

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=1

Edited by nick sussex, 26 December 2011 - 18:26 .

[i'm dreaming of...]

If this winter had a metaphor it would be that it reminded me of Schrodinger's cat. Although all that quantum gobbly goop says otherwise, the cat is definitely dead.

The current (GFS) output is benign and the usual rhetoric really doesn't do it justice.

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe"

[sebastiaan1973]

Some more amplification in the USA at 168.

Attached Thumbnails

• 

Edited by sebastiaan1973, 26 December 2011 - 18:38 .

[happy days]

ecm looks better than gfs at 168hrs so thankfully a better run seems on the cards.
Hopefully something similar to the 0z run in FI!!

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

happy days, on 26 December 2011 - 18:42 , said:

ecm looks better than gfs at 168hrs so thankfully a better run seems on the cards.
Hopefully something similar to the 0z run in FI!!

I agree, by 168hrs the Russian high looks to be extending towards the pole. Must be a good sign, unless I am mistaken

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1681.gif

[lukemc]

i, on 26 December 2011 - 18:35 , said:

If this winter had a metaphor it would be that it reminded me of Schrodinger's cat. Although all that quantum gobbly goop says otherwise, the cat is definitely dead.

The current (GFS) output is benign and the usual rhetoric really doesn't do it justice.

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe"

Looking at things from a quantum mechanical point of view nothing is certain - yes cold is not certain but mild is certainly not certain too!

It will be nice to see a bit more balance in your posts take it easy - I do find you seem to have a mild bias when predicting outcomes but it could be reverse psychology if you like cold weather that is. On that matter what is your preference - do you like cold weather, or are you a "mildy" like Ian Brown or Gavin D?

Who knows what the next few weeks will bring!

Good to see encouraging signs from the ECM for the cold fans though - and if the ECM is good lets hope that we get a good pub run tonight from the GFS to up the spirit on this forum a bit - at least it will help with the post Xmas anti climax LOL!

Edited by lukemc, 26 December 2011 - 19:02 .

[Gavin D]

Slowly but surely ECM is picking up on a pattern change

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1921.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2161.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif