243 replies to this topic

[summer blizzard]

BornFromTheVoid, on 24 January 2012 - 12:40 , said:

6.4 to the 23rd

http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

Yesterday was 6.1C. Minimum today is 1.3C while maxima should be around 9C so the CET should remain at 6.4C on tomorrows update.
The 06z GFS would then have it at
6.5C to the 25th (8.4)
6.4C to the 26th (4.5)
6.3C to the 27th (3.5)
6.2C to the 28th (3.9)
6.1C to the 29th (3.5)
6.0C to the 30th (3.0)
5.8C to the 31st (-0.4)

Am i right in thinking that the last 3 days are likely to be colder than this calculation?

[TonyH]

summer blizzard, on 28 January 2012 - 17:10 , said:

Am i right in thinking that the last 3 days are likely to be colder than this calculation?

Hope so, for my 5.5c!

[damianslaw]

Oh well this cold spell has come too late from preventing a mild CET value for the month. At least it hasn't been a ridicuously mild month as I was beginning to think cold happen a couple of weeks ago.

We've now had 5 consecutively very mild months, exceptionally so in the case of October and November, but the tide is definately turning, and Feb should easily break the cycle - about time too!

[reef]

Hadley is 6.1C to the 29th. Yesterday was rather cold at 1.6C.

5.8C-6.0C now looks to be the landing ground before adjustments.

[Don]

Looks like my guess of 4.7C for this month is going to be around 1C too low. I would have a thought a final CET of 5.7C is most likely now.

EDIT Looking at it again probably more like 5.5C. Manley has us at 5.9C to the 29th.

Edited by Don, 30 January 2012 - 13:13 .

[summer blizzard]

5.6-5.7C is likely to be the Hadley finish.

When was the last day with a daily mean below 0C, today and tommorow must come very close.

[reef]

Today wont be anywhere near, the min temp is down as 0.0C so the mean will be well above freezing.

[damianslaw]

Maxima in the CET zone tomorrow probably 3 degrees, minima -2 or -3 degrees so we may come close to recording a mean below 0 degrees on the final day of the month.

The first three days of Feb should comfortably produce means below 0 degrees as we see the colder uppers encroach pegging maxima down to 1 degrees and minima easily below -3 degrees for many, Thursday and Friday could see a mean of below -2 degrees, won't make any difference to the Jan CET value mind, but for the first time since the start of August we are looking at a colder than average start to a new month, we have seen some very mild starts to new months recently exceptionally so in the case of Oct, Nov and Jan.

[Scorcher]

I think it will be 5.8C before adjustments. I'm a little disappointed with this late colder spell as my estimate was 5.9C! I just hope it's only a small adjustment.

[Kentish Man]

Hadley is on 5.9C today (Jan 1 - 30). With a further fall today I'd say 5.5C after adjustments is going to be pretty close.

[Kentish Man]

Climate UK's January stats

CET: (Jan 1-31): 5.4°C (+1.0 degC)
E&W Rain: (Jan 1-31): 65.8mm ( 73 per cent)
E&W Sun: (Jan 1-31): 73.8hr (124 per cent)
© Philip Eden

In the end it was quite a dry, mild and sunny month

Hadley is on 5.7C up to the 31st but this is still provisional. Looks like a 5.4C or 5.5C finish after adjustments

[Roger J Smith]

I say we just take the mean for the 31st, as a sort of end point.

[Optimus Prime]

http://www.metoffice...ate/England.txt

Confirmed as 5.3c. 0.9c above 81-10 average, 1.1c above 71-000 average and 1.5c above 61-90 average.

Felt a lot milder than what was actually experienced.

Only three other Januarys have come in at 5.3c since 1900;

2002
1999
1938

That was actually an England reading rather then the 'Central England' reading thus the difference from average is incorrect.

Edited by Optimus Prime, 01 February 2012 - 21:54 .

[chionomaniac]

OP, do you know the values for the first half and second half of the month - or anyone please?

[Optimus Prime]

chionomaniac, on 01 February 2012 - 21:49 , said:

OP, do you know the values for the first half and second half of the month - or anyone please?

GP,

Final reading won't be in until tomorrow at the earliest, adjustments need to be made (some figures are too high)

Provisionally;
First half (1-16) 6.4c
Second half (17-31) 5.0c

Reference;
http://www.metoffice...t_mean_est_2012

[Scorcher]

I'm shocked Hadley dropped 0.2C- yesterday must have been really cold!

[reef]

Scorcher, on 01 February 2012 - 22:53 , said:

I'm shocked Hadley dropped 0.2C- yesterday must have been really cold!

It was the coldest day of the month. The mean was only 0.3C.

Hadley usually take a while to give the final figure for January for some reason, but I suspect we'll see it Thurs or Fri.

[chionomaniac]

Optimus Prime, on 01 February 2012 - 21:59 , said:

GP,

Final reading won't be in until tomorrow at the earliest, adjustments need to be made (some figures are too high)

Provisionally;
First half (1-16) 6.4c
Second half (17-31) 5.0c

Reference;
http://www.metoffice...t_mean_est_2012

Thank you

[Jackone]

Figures will be updated over the weekend., Hadley permtting.

[m1chaels]

Is 5.3 confirmed?