Scotland - Regional Discussion - New Year

[Cheggers]

At last the wind as died back enough to make it a reasonable crisp evening, with no rain. Temp hovering just about freezing.

[Jason T]

well......Got to admit absolute dire winter so far. However i still believe changes are coming and are present wihin the output. The knowledgeables did state it would be a slow process, There is only so much pressure anything can take.......?

[damianslaw]

I presume there isn't a great deal of snow on the Lakeland fells at the moment? Enjoyed some fine snowy conditions in the Lakes in the winters of 09/10 and 10/11. Will be down for a weekend of walking/scrambling on 20/21 January - all to play for before then. Struggling to motivate myself to get out on the Scottish hills at the moment due to ever-changing conditions and lengthy driving distances needed to find proper winter conditions

Yes after a very decent 2-3 weeks for snow the mild rot set in on the 19th and quickly stripped the fells bare of the white stuff, meaning a very poor festive period for winter walking - a cruel blow it has to be said. Next week promises the return of the white stuff again- hopefully we can rebuild the early solid base, but we need some better freeze/thaw cycles - the highlands tend to do much better for freeze/thaw cycles than the lakeland fells and the extra 300m makes a huge difference plus closer proximity to colder uppers.

I mentioned in another thread how I feel the 20th Jan will be a pivotal date when we see a marked change to much more severe wintry conditions - so who knows when you venture down here you may be greeted with pristine powder snow galore.

The last three winters have been excellent (at times) for winter walking in the lakeland fells. Winter 09/10 being the best of the three, with the fells holding snow from early dec through until mid March. Winter 08/09 saw alternating snowy spells with a good first half to december, and a good late dec/early jan period, and a very late jan-mid feb period then nothing. Last year was dissapointing on the whole from mid Jan onwards with very little snow, but december was excellent.

However, despite the poor last 10 days, I have managed two days of proper winter walking on the 4th and 10th and would endured another good one on the weekend of the 17th/18th had I not been in the NE instead - alas I enjoyed a very snowy walk on hadrians wall.

Sods law the christmas and new year weekends have coincided with none of the white stuff - sods law indeed.. I normally get one half decent winters walk in between christmas and new year but not this year - but we've had similiar years such as 2002, 2006 and 2007.

[Guest]

I'm a borderer of just 4 years. I'm only now just accepted in the local; used to be when I opened the door the music stopped and everyone would turn to stare in my direction.

And that's for a teuchter - for a West coastie it could be torches and pitchforks at midnight if you're not careful. :lol:

I'm going to get burned at the stake, aren't I???

I'm going to get burned at the stake, aren't I??? Won't be the first time.

[BleakMidwinter]

I'm going to get burned at the stake, aren't I???

Twenty years ago, I visited mates in the Hebrides with my then-boyfriend - posh English voice, long dyed black hair, black nailvarnish and a Catholic.... (him, not me, I mean!). I had to keep fighting an urge to carry a fire-extinguisher every time we went out

Edited December 30, 2011 by BleakMidwinter

[November13]

Well anyone think there will be some snow today. Still well below freezing and that band of moisture is moving east. I hope to get some skiing done next week anyway as at least there is snow above 1500ft. New Skis from last year,new helmet this year and even better new helmet camera for action shots..All the kit and nae idea!

[glasgow-guy]

Monday looking great for a brief snow event

[howham]

0.3C when I got up - we may have squeezed an air frost earlier. Looks like December will come out as average when I compile my monthly stats.

[skyeblue]

Clutching at straws

Any snow out there?

Temp3c so close @ rising

Ah confirm rain

[edo]

2 degrees here and uppers look like may just hang on long enough to give a few hours snow here....never look fwd to it much though when know it will all end far too quickly

[Cheggers]

I'm going to get burned at the stake, aren't I???

I spent 4 years at Glasgow Royal sounding like an Englishman, so can't be that bad.

Cold and rain here, but can see snaw on Campsies through the drizzle.

[blitzen]

Second time that Arctic high has appeared again and more pronounced. As I was thinking yesterday, if it continues, that surely could give things a kick up the backside? I think GP is on course and hopefully the 2nd half of January is going to produce the goods!

[lorenzo]

Another grey overcast one today. Looking milder as the day goes on.. good to see we have some early first footers from the other regions.

The first storm of the New Year is continuing to catch the eye, some subtle changes in between runs - whether the LP tracks North of the UK is still difficult to guess. Also looking at where the storm will deepen the furthest, a couple of speedier storm tracks have this low deepening in the North Sea.

UKMO view

From the GEFS Ensembles I have picked out around 6 charts which highlight the more severe options available on this system. ( There are others which are less dramatic..)

p2 - sees central pressure 930mb, North West in the tight Isobars

p7 - LP more tilted on approach pushing winds further south

p12 - similar to the first this time deepens to 935mb

p15 - this is where previous systems have slowed and deepened

p18 - a quicker route across the north - anyone see the Northern Isles under there?

p20 - again quicker and at this timeframe rattling Norway

One to blow those New Year cobwebs away !

[Poots]

3c here and raining quite steadily. Feels cold out, doubt we'll see any white stuff at this level, but the top of the hills will probably get a dusting.

Wonder if we'll ever see the sun again....it's so dark here again today!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Another grey overcast one today. Looking milder as the day goes on.. good to see we have some early first footers from the other regions.

The first storm of the New Year is continuing to catch the eye, some subtle changes in between runs - whether the LP tracks North of the UK is still difficult to guess. Also looking at where the storm will deepen the furthest, a couple of speedier storm tracks have this low deepening in the North Sea.

UKMO view

From the GEFS Ensembles I have picked out around 6 charts which highlight the more severe options available on this system. ( There are others which are less dramatic..)

p2 - sees central pressure 930mb, North West in the tight Isobars

p7 - LP more tilted on approach pushing winds further south

p12 - similar to the first this time deepens to 935mb

p15 - this is where previous systems have slowed and deepened

p18 - a quicker route across the north - anyone see the Northern Isles under there?

p20 - again quicker and at this timeframe rattling Norway

One to blow those New Year cobwebs away !

It does look as though the exceptionally active jet will continue through into the New Year. I must say that while I expected a mostly mild, zonal pattern I didn't expect the zonality to be as persistant or the jet as strong as it has been. It's been a staggering month in the sense that there has simply been no let up in the pattern at all. However, one or two ensemble members are beginning to suggest that changes are afoot mid month, and although that's perhaps a bit premature it's the first time I've seen charts like this in any model since last December -

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/run/gens-9-1-384.png?6

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/run/gens-14-1-384.png?6

It has to change at some point surely.....

[Cheggers]

Temp topped 4C but now dropping, and sleet has now started to appear. Maybe, just maybe...............

[spindrift1980]

Monday looking great for a brief snow event

Would be nice but I wouldn't hold my breath. If I'd had £1 for every time one of those charts indicated that I would have snow and it failed to materialise then I would have, oh probably at least £23 by now!

[BleakMidwinter]

3C and steady rain.

Hmph!

[Benvironment]

Veeeeeery wet snow here......but struggling to settle. Temp has dropped from 2.2C to 1.3C in the last hour.

[Ross B]

Rain has just turned to sleety snow very quickly!

[edo]

currently a rain to sleet to rain event here....temp dropped from 4 to 3 although was as low as 2 mid morning today

[Blizzardo]

When I left Glasgow city centre about an hour ago it was 5.5c on the car thermometer and heavy rain. It was 2.5c when I got home and sleet. It's since dropped from 2.4c to 2.3c and still heavy sleet. Looking at the hills I think the snow level is only about 300 metres which could lower during any heavy bursts of precipitation. However, as the forecast suggests any snow today will only be temporary as milder air pushes in.

Ive not really kept a close eye on the models this winter but I have actually quite enjoyed the mobile pattern we've experienced recently and it looks as though Tuesday will bring another stormy day for some parts with some more opportunities of snow showers as well beyond New Years Day.

8 days of lying snow this winter for me so far is a great return in comparison to some of the past zonal winters i remember.

[edo]

back to sleet with heavy big flakes falling fast.....as you say blizzardo though warming up with 12c for hogmany!!!! I too though am enjoying the mobile weather although would like a couple of days of proper snow to take the youngest sledging for first time...(im like a broken record with that one)

[Ross B]

Back to light rain here but I can now see the pentlands which have a fresh dusting of snow

[edo]

heavy wet snow now......... non settling