Atlantic Storms - January 2012

[Dorsetbred]

Update with today's 12z model runs,

Thursday night and Friday morning again hasn't changed much at all since this morning so again its about 45mph to 55mph gusts for Western Scotland and Northern Scotland. The wind charts for all the models show now the worse of the winds should miss the Northern Isles and can expect the same wind gusts as Western Scotland. It looks like the Faroe islands will see the worse of the wind I would expect 70mph to 80mph gusts.

Worse of the winds seen just missing Scotland tomorrow,

Northern Isles of Scotland just missing the wind as well meanwhile Faroe Islands get the worse,

On Saturday morning the same area's affected by Thursdays low are yet again at risk of windy weather. The chart below shows around 40mph to 50mph mean wind speeds so gusts could be around 70mph.

For Christmas day this Sunday another low will head on over to the UK. All 3 main models still show something different so lets look at the situation. The ECM has shifted the low further North compared to its run this morning this has put the wind speeds up but it would miss the UK completely probably just giving strong winds for the coasts.

Chart below shows ECM,

The GFS has blown up this low and looking at its ensemble members only about 2 agree with it meanwhile about 18 show something less intense.

However both the ECM and GFS show a similar track but the GFS has it further North interacting with colder air and another low which is the reason why its gone for a deep one, meanwhile the ECM and UKMO have it further South not interacting too much with the cold air or pressure systems to the North making it less intense. For now I feel the UKMO and ECM have got a hold of it while the GFS has gone over the top. All eyes on the GFS 18z tonight.

Looking into next week again the models show high pressure around for all bringing settled weather for most of the week.

Overall tomorrow night the Western Scotland and Northern Scotland can expect gusts over 50mph or 60mph nothing severe for these area's. For Saturday its looking very windy for Western and Northern Scotland again with 60mph or 70mph gusts likely. Then for Christmas day another low passes by the ECM and UKMO show a similar track meanwhile the GFS shows a powerful storm. However the worst of the winds for that day do look like they will miss the UK at the moment. I think if this low does go further South it won't be as strong as shown on the ECM and UKMO but if it moves further North and connects with cold air it will be intense but too far North to affect the UK but Faroe islands can expect a violent storm if that happened.

Thanks WM a nice analysis there, gonna take the snow shoes outta the car and put bags of cement in the boot so I don't get blown away.

[Bluebreezer54]

^^ What in Dorset ??!!

Thanks for the excellent updates WM.

[Liam J]

I'm sure you don't need to worry about the wind being a problem in Dorset, the depressions will be passing well to the north of Britain.

The very strong winds will be affecting N&W Scotland with strong winds also extending into Northern England and Northern Ireland at times, quite grey and wet for the NW I'm afraid and thoroughly boring.

Edited December 21, 2011 by Liam J

[Zenarcher]

Update on the 18z GFS

Looking very closely at the wind charts for tomorrow night the 18z has shifted the wind slightly further North downgrading the wind speeds by 5mph. Still about 50mph to 60mph gusts for Western Scotland and the Northern Isles the same however I feel Shetland may see 65mph gusts as it passes close to it.

Saturday morning is still looking very windy for Western and Northern Scotland but the GFS has downgraded this wind event as well by about 5mph or 10mph. So perhaps 55mph to 65mph gusts now.

Now for our third low that the GFS showed earlier today a powerful low passing over the far North, well now on the 18z GFS it has downgraded it a lot. Why has it downgraded it? The 18z has made the pressure of the low while it crosses the Atlantic not as deep this is close to what the UKMO and ECM where saying, so because of this it doesn't really interact with the cold air and lows in the far North as much. Despite this downgrade we are still looking at windy conditions. The winds are looking very similar to what is being said about Saturday morning but it looks like more inland area's will be affected the area's affected are Northern Ireland, Northern England and most of Scotland. But the highest risk is Shetland as the low passes by the UK it will still drop later on as it enters the colder air at the moment 80mph to 90mph gusts is looking likely for Shetland.

Looking ahead into next week high pressure will build up this is looking very likely now as the models have felt confident on this all week.

Overall Thursday night still looking the same but about 5mph downgrade on the winds for Western Scotland. Saturday morning has also seen a downgrade of between 5mph and 10mph but will still be very windy. Finally the low for Sunday has been downgraded a lot and the GFS now says it won't really interact with the colder air until it has pretty much passed the UK but Shetland could see very high storm force winds at the moment. Next week is looking much more settled.

Edited December 21, 2011 by weathermaster

[Zenarcher]

Update on this mornings model runs,

Tonight around 6pm the low pressure will pass by Scotland closely but just missing it so I'm expecting between 45mph to 55mph gusts for Western and Northern parts.

6pm tonight,

12am tonight (interesting to see what the Faroe Islands will record),

Saturday is pretty much looking the same with Western and Northern Scotland expecting 50mph to 60mph gusts. Also the Met Office still have their warning out for heavy rain for Western Scotland on Saturday and Sunday.

For Sunday still disagreement between the models. Lets take a look at the ECM and GFS,

ECM

GFS

So the ECM has it further North interacting with the colder air making it more intense something similar to what the GFS was saying yesterday but today they have switched sides now the GFS is going more South and less intense but the ECM wants to push further North and bring the winds up.

Looking ahead its still looking settled for next week.

Overall tonight some windy conditions over Scotland and looking windy again over the weekend with heavy rain possible for Western Scotland.

[Liam J]

Brilliant updates weathermaster, Xmas day is looking unsettled for the north with rain and strong to gale force winds. Gusts of 50-55mph predicted for my location so quite blustery for the big day, not very festive! Perhaps the Atlantic will move up a gear again as we head into the new year?

Edited December 22, 2011 by Liam J

[Zenarcher]

Update

First of all tonight's low pressure system is currently to the West of the UK bringing gusts between 40mph and 50mph in some parts of Western Scotland.

Using the latest 12z runs for tonight's wind event below,

12am

3am

Next its Saturday morning and its still looking the same with 60 or 70mph gusts for Western Ireland and Scotland.

And for Sunday we are still unsure on this even though its just less than 72 hours away. The GFS and ECM this afternoon have shifted it further North this has upgraded the wind speeds but the worse will miss the UK and again its the Faroe Islands that look to see the worse. Still Western Scotland and Ireland and even Northern Scotland can expect around 55mph to 65mph gusts on Christmas morning.

Now usually at this point I would say next week looks settled and give my overall thoughts, however that is not the case tonight as the ECM for Wednesday has thrown out a very deep low over the UK.

If this came off it would bring storm force winds across Ireland and most of England around 70mph to 80mph gusts would be likely and even more over higher ground. Now the UKMO and GFS both show a low over the UK on this day but not as deep perhaps bringing strong winds but nothing stormy. So for now we don't know if the ECM has either picked up on something or has over done this low remember its overdone a few lows this week before at the same time at 120 to 144 hours out. Will the 18z GFS pick this up? Will the ECM ensemble members agree? We shall find out later this evening.

Overall tonight very windy in Western and Northern Scotland. The windy theme will repeat on Saturday and Sunday for the same area's but perhaps winds being a bit stronger than tonight. The ECM is showing a very deep low bringing storm force winds for next Wednesday which is another wind event we will keep a watch on.

Edited December 22, 2011 by weathermaster

[Zenarcher]

Update with the 18z GFS,

For Saturday its still looking the same as this afternoon with 55mph to 65mph gusts for Western parts of Britain and Northern Scotland. As for Sunday the GFS now agrees with the ECM on the low it has moved it further North making a rather violent storm for the Faroe islands up far North. As for the UK we will see wind speeds similar to what is expected on Saturday.

And finally an update on the Wednesday low the GFS disagrees with the ECM's low and shows a shallow one pass over us but as it moves pass it will deepen slightly giving very strong winds for Eastern Scotland. Also looking at the ECM ensemble members out of 50 more than 30 either said a low wouldn't come at all or it would but not as deep meanwhile just over 10 of them said a deep low would pass over. So at the moment I would think the ECM would downgrade it.

[Liam J]

Quite a windy Christmas weekend coming for the north but I'm sure many of us will be enjoying the festivities to much to notice!

The depression progged for Wednesday looked impressive on the ECM 12z with a very deep system producing severe gales in places, still ages away yet but certainly enough time to upgrade/downgrade or drop it all together.Interesting to watch evolve over the coming days.

Signs we could enter a more active spell of weather as we get into new year as the jet stream moves further south possibly bringing another Atlantic onslaught.

[Zenarcher]

Update

Just checked a station in the Faroe islands last night and top gust was 67mph, not as bad as thought before.

Anyway onto Saturday still 55mph to 65mph for Western and Northern Scotland. Also the Met Office still have their early warnings out for heavy rain for Western Scotland for both Saturday and Sunday.

As for Sunday the worse of the winds are still going to be over the Faroe Islands its looking very bad up their for Christmas day

For Western Scotland 55mph to 65mph gusts and Northern Scotland 60mph to 70mph for Christmas day, these wind speeds can be expected through the afternoon.

For Wednesday still unsure about this both the GFS and UKMO show a low but nothing compared to the ECM which has a very deep low that moves across the UK.

This is the ECM wind charts for that day,

This would bring storm force winds for Northern Ireland, Northern England and most of Southern and Western Scotland. I would reckon gusts would be around 75mph to 85mph.

However the ECM is the only model showing something this bad other models do agree on a low but not this deep so we are unsure yet. Looking at the GFS ensemble members most agree on a less intense low and out of 50 ensemble members on the ECM 30 show show a downgrade and 20 agree. We still don't know yet until all the models start to show something similar.

[Liam J]

Thanks WM

I'm quite interested in the storm being progged for next week, the ECM has proved very reliable of late regarding depth and positioning of depressions. Certainly one to watch.

So a rather disturbed and mild Christmas weekend is upon us, very wet and windy with persistent rain and strong to gale force winds in the north and west. Boxing will also be rather unsettled with further rain and strong winds likely for many northern areas.

This Christmas won't be a memorable one for the weather conditions that's for sure! But hopefully it will be memorable for many other reasons

Edited December 23, 2011 by Liam J

[SparkleS]

Well its pretty nasty out there tonight here in north west, i would say the wind is more severe gales now than it was the other week and rain with it to, about 6 degrees down from nearly 12 c.

[Zenarcher]

Update

For Saturday the models have downgraded the wind speeds by about 5mph so currently expecting 50mph to 60mph gusts across Northern Ireland, Western and Northern Scotland tomorrow morning.

As for Sunday not much has really changed still expecting around 55mph to 65mph gusts for Western Scotland in the morning and it looks like Shetland in the far North may see 65mph to 75mph gusts later on in the day.

Now for Wednesday all the 3 main models show this now. Still some disagreement though. In fact we have seen a time shift since this morning they have brought the low 12 hours closer. So currently its expected on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

GFS below has storm force winds for all of Scotland.

The UKMO shows a similar track to the GFS and depth of the low as well.

However the ECM which I think personally has the best grip of this system because the other two models seem about 24 hours behind the ECM with this low. This evening the ECM has moved the low further out into the sea and has downgraded the wind speeds slightly. But still shows storm force winds for all of Scotland and Northern Ireland and Northern England.

12am

3am

6am

9am

The ECM has shifted this low further North being the reason why the wind speeds have been downgraded a bit. If this was to come off as it is now 70mph to 80mph gusts would be likely through out Scotland and much higher wind speeds over high ground.

Overall windy conditions over the weekend mainly for Scotland but nothing serious. For Tuesday night and Wednesday morning another low is expected the exact track and depth is still unknown but with good consistent runs for the ECM it seems it will pass near Scotland bringing storm force winds however not as high as thought this morning.

[Zenarcher]

Update using the GFS 18z,

Still looking the same for tomorrow morning being windy over Western and Northern Scotland.

Interesting to see how the GFS has moved that violent storm for the Faroe islands on Sunday further South. But this means Northern Scotland have seen a rather large upgrade on this low. Northern Parts of the mainland of Scotland could see around 60 - 70mph gusts meanwhile the island of Orkney and Shetland could see gusts of 70 - 80mph. Something to keep a watch on just goes to show even 48 hours out a slight change can be made.

Now for Tuesday night the 18z GFS has downgraded the winds for that day. Still stormy for Scotland and very windy for Northern Ireland and Northern England. But what's interesting is the GFS now places this low in a very similar path to the UKMO and looking at the ECM ensemble members most of them agree on this path as well than any other path shown. So if it were to take this path shown on the 18z it wouldn't be as severe as thought before but still stormy conditions over Scotland.

Overall the Christmas weekend is going to be very unsettled for Northern parts of the UK and a chance of being stormy during Christmas day over the far Northern Scottish Isles. For Tuesday night and Wednesday morning we are still unsure on this event however over the past 24 hours I have learnt if it moves further North it will deepen much more with the colder air bringing stormy conditions over most of Scotland but if it moves further South and doesn't interact with the cold air it will still be stormy but not as severe.

An example below about the position of the low,

Edited December 23, 2011 by weathermaster

[Liam J]

Still looking very windy for northern areas over the weekend, especially Christmas Day with gales affecting Northern England northwards 50-60mph gusts, perhaps severe gales over Northern Scotland for a time with gusts of 60-70mph.

The storm system for next Wednesday is still very much a feature of the outputs, some slight variations between each model regarding the exact track an depth, understandable at this range. This low really does get bombed down to become an intense feature as it crosses the UK which would bring severe gale to storm force winds over Northern and Britain.

Still 4 days to go until the said event so the detail could change, worth keeping an eye on as the potential is there for a nasty storm causing damage and disruption.

[Coast]

Well its pretty nasty out there tonight here in north west,

It was pretty gusty and wet here in the SE too!

[Liam J]

Meto have issued early yellow warnings for Wednesday including all of Scotland and the far north of England.

Severe gales.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

Edited December 24, 2011 by Liam J

[Terminal Moraine]

Yes, an interesting low coming up for Wednesday. From a personal point of view I would like the centre to be 150 miles or so further south but things like that just don't happen, at least they don't when I want them to.

Potentially It could be quite a storm in Scotland with the GFS 06z indicating gusts in exposed western areas of 80-90 mph, perhaps a bit more.

[GulberwickWeather]

Warning for here now Amber - Hurricane Force 12 expected with gusts of 80-90mph "likely" and 100mph possible in the north of Shetland.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/os/os_forecast_warnings.html?day=2

[Zenarcher]

Warning for here now Amber - Hurricane Force 12 expected with gusts of 80-90mph "likely" and 100mph possible in the north of Shetland.

http://www.metoffice...ings.html?day=2

Stay safe up there its a shame that the weather is like that for Christmas.

For the Wednesday low all the 3 main models seem to agree on a track for that day now. After researching into the low as it crosses the Atlantic it seems for the past 3 runs the ECM has downgraded it slightly each time and so has the GFS. The overall outcome is still not known yet. The UKMO and ECM give 70-80mph gusts across Scotland meanwhile the GFS saw a big downgrade this afternoon. I remember a few weeks ago at this time range the GFS downgraded a low 12 hours before the ECM and UKMO so its unknown whether the GFS has picked up on something or the UKMO and ECM are getting it right.

Sorry for the lack of updates today as I've not had much time. I will try to get a update posted tomorrow at some point.

[Liam J]

Well what a nasty Christmas Day coming up for anyone living in the Northern Isles, near hurricane force winds gusting 90-100mph!

Very severe by any standards, hope you stay safe and it doesn't completely ruin the day.

The 28th is the next day to watch, potential for more widespread severe gales as a very deep depression crosses the north. Still a few days to go before we can be confident on the exact track.

GFS 18z has just rolled out past the 28th and is showing a very intense depression affecting much of Scotland, N Ireland and more of Northern England than previous runs.

Stay tuned.

Edited December 24, 2011 by Liam J

[Cookie]

wild day here today!

West to southwesterly winds will increase across the north of Scotland on Christmas Day, with gusts of 80 to 90 mph likely across the Northern Isles, where there is a lower risk of as much as 100 mph in the north of Shetland. Over parts of northern mainland Scotland and the north of the Western Isles winds are expected to gust to 70 to 80 mph. The public should be prepared for the risk of disruption to transport and power, and of possible structural damage.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/shipping_forecast.html#All~Hebrides

[Liam J]

Stay safe up north tomorrow.

I hope everyone has a wonderful and peaceful Christmas time, Merry Christmas one and all :smiliz19:

Sinead O'Connor singing silent night, memorising...

[The PIT]

Too far south to be effected too much by the storms. Expect to hit 50 mph later today should make walkig the Xmas lunch of refreshing. 06 oz moves todays storm a fraction further north but still very interesting for Scotland.

[Cookie]

gusting 80 mph here today thus far!

http://www.eoropaidh.co.uk/