Atlantic Storms - January 2012

[Liam J]

Hi folks, a shiny new thread to continue discussing the potential for Atlantic storms as we approach the Christmas period

Latest model outputs are hinting at another potentially disturbed spell of weather developing during the second half of the upcoming week.

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Edited December 16, 2011 by Liam J

[Jane Louise]

Latest model outputs are hinting at another potentially disturbed period developing during the second half of the upcoming week.

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Is that just for the North Liam? or is the South included too?

[Liam J]

Is that just for the North Liam? or is the South included too?

Well atm Jane the north is in the firing line to experience the worse of the conditions (as usual) but that doesn't mean areas further south will be missing out all together.

Still a long way off yet and things could change and favour much more of the UK.

Edited December 16, 2011 by Liam J

[Jane Louise]

Well atm Jane the north is in the firing line to experience the worse of the conditions (as usual) but that doesn't mean areas further south will be missing out all together.

Still a long way off yet and things could change and favour much more of the UK.

Ahh, thanks Liam I wonder if it will get downgraded nearer the time guess we will we have to wait and see. I thought we were due a mild Christmas but with the models chopping and changing so much it's always hard to verify until at least the day before.

[Zenarcher]

It actually looks like the next low will pass over Scotland as early as Tuesday next week according to the ECM and UKMO however the GFS doesn't really support this idea. At the moment the winds wouldn't really be that strong compared to what they have been in the past few weeks. Also only the far North of Scotland looks to be in the firing line. At this stage things could change though since we aren't seeing full agreement yet.

The models do agree again on a active period from the 22nd to 26th. Low pressure systems on most models form however it looks like only the far North of Scotland would see the worst of the winds this is due to the high pressure in the South stopping these systems coming further South.

Overall for Tuesday could hold a wind event but is unlikely to be anything severe and around the Christmas period unsettled weather is looking possible mainly for Scotland.

Edited December 16, 2011 by weathermaster

[Liam J]

Kind of similar to what the models were showing a week or two back, it looked like high pressure was going to ridge north towards the UK then as we entered the reliable time frame things turned much more unsettled on the outputs.

Anyway all a long way off yet so I guess we'll just have to wait and see how things are looking at the start of next week.

[ZONE 51]

GFS 18z early friday..

This could end up developed further, i expect active squally conditions from a front moving through

Then later friday this moves south, an upgrade would bring higher risk of damaging gusts

Edited December 16, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Zenarcher]

Interesting to see the GFS 18z disagree around the 72 - 96 hour mark against the ECM and UKMO. The GFS is still not saying anything for Tuesday but as stated above next Thursday/Friday a low is shown to pass down over Scotland bringing the worst of the winds over Ireland and most of England. Looking ahead to the Christmas period we have a big low out in the Atlantic but looks to weaken a lot before it reaches the UK.

[Liam J]

I have a gut feeling that the Christmas weekend will turn out pretty active perhaps even stormy for some of us.

Obviously at this range the charts will chop and change, potential is there however.

[ZONE 51]

Yes that is what i am thinking, potential for further storms to brew up in the atlantic and just of our shores, then moving across, i expect more southerly tracking systems to evolve, so the south also in the firing line over the next 2 weeks..

I get the idea that cold to the north and warm to the south we get squeezed in the middle, and so does the low pressures, the Jet=storm rider!

Edited December 16, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[jean91]

We certainly have to keep our good eyes to the coming runs!!!and keep our heads clear!!!

Out of topic but all is back to normal for trains .....They put great human resources to clear tracks and so on as this evening is the end of school off for xmas holidays so loads were heading to take transportation ( exept me ,am staying !!!!)

But now eyes on to the Atlantic once again! and the runs!

Edited December 17, 2011 by jean91

[Zenarcher]

Hi everyone an update from me using this mornings model runs,

Overnight the ECM and UKMO have changed their minds on Tuesday and agree with the GFS that a wind event is now out of the question not often do you see that happen.

Going ahead now to next Thursday/Friday the GFS seems confident that most of the Northern UK will see some windy weather nothing severe but I reckon 65-80mph gusts would occur. The ECM and UKMO do support this idea although they have the low a bit lower meaning the worst of the winds would be further South.

Overall we are unlikely to see anything happening on Tuesday now but with good model agreement for Thursday/Friday we would see some windy weather.

[Liam J]

Thanks for the updates weathermaster

Well it's a start, we may have some interest later next week but nothing really severe at this stage I agree but who knows what will happen with the model outputs over the next 5 days.

GFS 12z control run turns very disturbed from the 23rd onwards.

Interesting time viewing the outputs over the coming week, whilst feeling all festive ho ho ho :smiliz19:

Edited December 17, 2011 by Liam J

[Zenarcher]

Thanks for the updates weathermaster

Well it's a start, we may have some interest later next week but nothing really severe at this stage I agree but who knows what will happen with the model outputs over the next 5 days.

GFS 12z control run turns very disturbed from the 23rd onwards.

Interesting time viewing the outputs over the coming week, whilst feeling all festive ho ho ho :smiliz19:

Thanks :smiliz19:

Yes the GFS control run shows a very unsettled period after the 23rd with low pressure systems constantly heading towards the UK.

Here's my update for today's 12z model runs,

All the 3 models still agree that a wind event on Tuesday is out of the question and at 72 hours this is very unlikely to change so I expect it to stay that way.

Moving ahead to the Thursday low that is the main interest of the week. The 3 models agree on it's position which is good to see however how low it will go is unknown at this time the ECM has 980mb, GFS 970mb and UKMO 985mb. The GFS as we all know has a habit of overdoing these pressure systems so may downgrade over the next few runs or it may stick to it and the others may follow.

Now onto Friday the same low mentioned for Thursday makes its way closer to the UK and this is where things start going into the unknown. The 3 models agree on its position that it will be very far North pretty much missing the UK and probably only Shetland and Orkney seeing windy conditions. The ECM and UKMO do agree on it being at 980mb meanwhile the GFS puts it to 970mb. If the GFS is right 65 to 80mph is probably likely for most of Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Looking way ahead to next weekend with the ECM and GFS they both agree the Atlantic will ease off for a bit as high pressure begins to build over the UK for the Christmas period.

Overall the main interest is on Thursday and Friday this week as a low is due to pass over the far North bringing strong winds to the North of the UK however how strong and how far North is still unknown.

[Liam J]

Hmmm.... wondering what the 18z will pull out of the bag?

I sure hope the euro trash high pressure remains in exile well into FI !!!

[Liam J]

GFS 18z rolling out, still looking very windy over the northern half of the UK by the end of the week.

Deep depression running over the top of Scotland with gales or severe gales over the far north of England and Scotland on this chart, then perhaps a repeat during Christmas Eve.

Still some time to go yet so expect some alterations to the overall evolution over the coming week as we head into a more reliable time range.

[Zenarcher]

Update on this evenings 18z,

It has upgraded the chances of some windy/stormy weather for Thursday night into Friday morning,

This would bring around 60 to 75mph gusts possibly even 80mph. Although this afternoons UKMO and ECM both disagree with this and say it will be further North and not 970mb but 980mb.

After this it shows another low move down from Greenland on Saturday even though it weakens as it heads to the UK it could bring similar wind speeds to the Thursday/Friday event in the same area's. The ECM does agree on this low but doesn't show it making its way to the UK at all.

After this the GFS still seems keen to bring in high pressure over Christmas time.

Overall Thursday/Friday event still interesting to watch with a possible follow up of low pressure just a day later.

[Coast]

22nd into the 23rd showing up still on GFS free atmosphere charts - quite a biggy in Scotland at this stage:

Same for Manchester:

and even down as far as London:

All for quite an extended time as well.....

[Liam J]

GFS looks to have backed off the idea of very windy weather for the end of the week and putting the emphasis on high pressure ridging towards the UK, whilst UKMO & ECM seem have increased the potential with depressions taking a slightly more southerly track and high pressure kept further south.

It will all depend on how far north the high pressure can exert it's influence.

Edited December 18, 2011 by Liam J

[Zenarcher]

Interesting charts on today's morning runs.

The wind event appears to have changed slightly for the Thursday/Friday event. The GFS has pushed the low further North despite this 50 to 65mph would still occur across Scotland and over Shetland and Orkney 55 to 75mph would be likely. But the ECM and UKMO both disagree with the GFS and say it will be slightly more South but not as deep. This would still bring strong winds although not as strong as what they were forecast to be yesterday.

As for Saturday the GFS and ECM are both keen to keep a low over Greenland and Iceland area with high pressure building up for Christmas. But the UKMO is on it's own here it shows the low slightly more South with high pressure struggling to build over the UK, if this were to happen it would be unsettled for the Northern parts of the UK over Christmas. Meanwhile the GFS and ECM go for a more settled outlook.

Overall it still looks like we will see some windy weather around Thursday and Friday but still not sure exactly yet. As for next weekend most models suggest the high will build up over Christmas.

Edited December 18, 2011 by weathermaster

[wimblettben]

It is a shame but I think that we won't now get any stormy weather for a few months time at least for us down here in the south, although even last week Monday night it was only gale force wind gusts.

If the GFS is correct then a more settled spell seems more likely and only windy conditions in Scotland.

[Liam J]

Certainly looks like high pressure will be ridging towards the UK and becoming the main player anchored to the south of Britain, dam it I want severe weather!!

Some pretty windy weather over Scotland around the 23rd courtesy of a depression passing to the north, looking at the 12z ECM it will be breezy and at times windy for most of the country as low pressure moves over the north of the anticyclone increasing the pressure gradient.

Edited December 18, 2011 by Liam J

[Zenarcher]

Update on this evenings 12z runs,

I'm feeling pretty confident about the Thursday and Friday wind event as the 3 main models have been consistently placing it further North. If this was to happen it would be just a windy day for most of Scotland and very windy for the far Northern Isles.

However when we get to next weekend the models all paint a different picture the UKMO and ECM are both happy to have high pressure over the UK but the GFS wants to bring in the higher pressure even more than what the other two show. Also there is disagreement between the low over Greenland and Iceland the GFS and ECM place it in that area but the UKMO brings it slightly further South.

Overall Thursday night into Friday morning wind event is looking unlikely now for anything severe as the models have agreed after a few runs that it will be further North and probably only bring very windy conditions to the Northern Isles of Scotland. For next weekend high pressure is looking likely to build up to the South of the UK but what the far North will see is unknown.

[Zenarcher]

Update with the 18z GFS

The GFS has changed things slightly for Thursday night and Friday morning it has moved the low closer to the UK and upgraded the wind speeds with it. Area's worse hit will be Western and Northern Scotland with gusts around 60 to 70mph for the West and 70mph to 80mph gusts for the Northern Isles.

Looking at next weekend the GFS is still happy to take that low over Greenland and Iceland area, I think if the models still show this path tomorrow morning and all agree I think we can pretty much nail down its track. Also the GFS brings in the high pressure bringing milder but settled conditions over the weekend.

Overall on Thursday and Friday the wind event is still with us and could bring high winds before the weekend. As for next weekend its looking settled for all parts of the UK but mild, so a cold snowy Christmas is sadly highly unlikely.

[Liam J]

Hmmm... so not much to get excited about then for the foreseeable future!

After such an active period over the last few weeks I think I might suffer withdrawal symptoms looking at the current outputs!

One wind event is looking game on for the far north by the end of the week, perhaps a chance of an upgrade weathermaster? I'm not hopeful but you just never now with our fickle weather what may be round the next corner.

Windless and snowless Christmas... at least people travelling for the holidays to family etc should have little weather related problems this year. (after Friday in the north)

The 18z does offer some hope for the end of December, but this is well into FI land.

Edited December 18, 2011 by Liam J