Wales - Regional Weather Discussion

[andymusic]

Aww shucks :/ Blue sky and a little bit of rain now :/ Oh well, was fun while it lasted!

Wales123098: Thanks for that, yes unfortunately the cold is no-where near the same level as last year

Andymusic: Yes it wasn't bad was it How did your wife's thing go on Thursday btw?

Does anyone know what Christmas day looks like atm? II don't really mind so long as it's not raining!

the mrs is still at it - has ten shows as Whitney in the Newbridge Hotel - no.6 show tonight - it's a wonder her voice is holding out - xmas day looks zonal to me - westerly flow of usual weather with the odd bit of pm air mixed in - in fact xmas eve into xmas day we may get another windy storm - seems to be cropping up on the models quite a bit. These wintry showers keep piling through here, just not cold enough for anything significant - good mind in one way - last year the mrs had to cancel loads of work cause she couldn't get to work with the freeze - amazing to think of where we were last year - icicles a couple of feet long, 2 ft of snow in places, I had to bring the xmas food shop in by sledge!

definitely more shower activity than even the GFS or nae progged today - I thought it was gonna be fairly dry - how wrong they were!

Edited December 17, 2011 by andymusic

[J10]

The wind direction being mre a NW tends to push the shower line further east.

The pattern for next week is for the Azores High to ridge further north and East with a flatter pattern, and with wind from the West to South West, it is likely to turn a bit milder. As for Christmas day, at the milder above pattern of the Azores High being higher alternates with brief NW flows as the Azores High temporarily moves back westwards. At the moment the brief NW is forecast for the 23rd/24th, but for those, hoping for a White Christmas, you would hope that such a shot happens on Christmas Day.

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../24/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../48/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../72/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../96/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...120/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...144/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...168/h500slp.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c...192/h500slp.png <- Christmas Day

So at the moment IMO the chance of a technical White Christmas is around 5-10%, one with lying snow at any time over Christmas looks even more unlikely.

If the Christmas Day chart above happened, it would be 0%.

A mild Christmas is the odds on favourite atm.

[Wales123098]

Any chance of these showers which keep feeding in to Wales turning to pure snow as the Temps continue to fall?

[mikeocarroll]

Any chance of these showers which keep feeding in to Wales turning to pure snow as the Temps continue to fall?

Here's hoping

[Wales123098]

Im below freezing here now -0.1c so hopefully the next shower I see it just snow if I do see one that is, the beacons keep sapping the energy out them.

Considering theres a big line of showers in Wales that could potentially be snowy as the night goes on if they don't die away Im surprised this forum isn't busier. Any experts able to give me any advice?

[keithlucky]

The trouble the sea temps are just to warm at the moment so when the showers arrive temps rise a month from now this would have given Wales 6 inches of snow

[TonyH]

Likely to be a wintry mix again, sleet and wet snow, a sprinkling on higher ground. The problem is that you will fall below zero during clear spells but rise above when a shower comes over.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Theres a trough moving through in the NW flow feeding showers NW to SE across Wales, perhaps some falling snow in heavier showers across N Wales away from the coast as some colder thickness comes down from the North:

http://expert-images...121721_1712.gif

Elsewhere i think showers are likely to be of rain and perhaps a little sleet with snow confined to the hills/mountains. Once the showers clear through the ice risk will be there once again as temperatures drop.

[Penderyn]

Heavy Hail and snow here in Central North Wales at 765 ft asl......its worse just to the west and we seem to be missing most of it but have 1cm cover

Edited December 17, 2011 by Penderyn

[Cymro]

Just drove over the mountain road between Brynaman and Llangadog and near white out conditions up there, snow line down to about 250m considering it was 350m at around 4pm, there is hope, a good inch has fallen on the road up there

[Penderyn]

Its sticking very well above 1100ft to 1200ft - whiteout conditions at times couldnt see a thing so turned back.....below 1000 ft snow gets wetter and wetter though, melting back home off roofs though mainly due to wet nature of snow and hail. Snow level about 150m asl but probably temporary

Edited December 17, 2011 by Penderyn

[DeepSnow]

Had some sleety rain earlier but that was it!

[J10]

It's not so much the time of year, it's that the air source isn't massively cold, and not for the first time, the coldest air is to the east.

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111217/12/12/h850t850eu.png

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20111217/12/12/hgt500-1000.png

Although marginal, conditions are slightly more conducive to wintriness tonight.

Here there have been a few showers today , mostly rain but perhaps with a bit of sleetyness, if that.

[TonyH]

Plenty of lovely hail showers today giving temporary coverings. On our drive to Aberystwyth for some Christmas shopping earlier the hail covering going up the hill past Talsarn was causing the wheels to lose their grip and we kept slipping. Coming down the other side there was a white van halted on the steep climb with his wheels spinning but getting nowhere, this from a few mm covering of hailstones.

[Cymro]

Plenty of lovely hail showers today giving temporary coverings. On our drive to Aberystwyth for some Christmas shopping earlier the hail covering going up the hill past Talsarn was causing the wheels to lose their grip and we kept slipping. Coming down the other side there was a white van halted on the steep climb with his wheels spinning but getting nowhere, this from a few mm covering of hailstones.

Yes also had trouble there coming back from aber today, also on the hill after cwmann on the road before you turn towards Talley

[mikeocarroll]

We're missing the showers here at the moment, might get a few in the early hours when the wind is forecast to back a little more westerly. The roads however will be lethal as the wet slushy surfaces will now be frozen solid (-1.7c currently).

[Cymro]

Hail turning very sleety and verging on wet snow here now, so the snow level must be continuing to decrease, expect to see a substantial covering above about 300m tomorrow.

[Daniel Miller]

the mrs is still at it - has ten shows as Whitney in the Newbridge Hotel - no.6 show tonight - it's a wonder her voice is holding out - xmas day looks zonal to me - westerly flow of usual weather with the odd bit of pm air mixed in - in fact xmas eve into xmas day we may get another windy storm - seems to be cropping up on the models quite a bit. These wintry showers keep piling through here, just not cold enough for anything significant - good mind in one way - last year the mrs had to cancel loads of work cause she couldn't get to work with the freeze - amazing to think of where we were last year - icicles a couple of feet long, 2 ft of snow in places, I had to bring the xmas food shop in by sledge!

definitely more shower activity than even the GFS or nae progged today - I thought it was gonna be fairly dry - how wrong they were!

Ahh good on her! Must be a bit busy then!

I suppose a bit of a storm would be ok. My mate hate would be 12c and drizzle, that HAS to be the worst weather known to man. Yeah, it's mad to think of the difference! I'm sure we will be topping that later in the winter though

[Marcus_surfer]

Rain showers continue here tonight...widespread ice however, with the cars frozen solid

[Cymro]

Went for another drive to the mountain road above Brynaman, stupid thing to do, was whiteout conditions from about 300m up with dense fog also a problem at the top, temp was -3 and there was I'de say about 7-8cm of snow on the roads, frozen solid here with wet snow and hail stuck to the cars, any more showers now wouldn't be surprised if a few of us get a surprise covering overnight.

[swales]

Went for another drive to the mountain road above Brynaman, stupid thing to do, was whiteout conditions from about 300m up with dense fog also a problem at the top, temp was -3 and there was I'de say about 7-8cm of snow on the roads, frozen solid here with wet snow and hail stuck to the cars, any more showers now wouldn't be surprised if a few of us get a surprise covering overnight.

Agh that's my favourite driving road... I love it so much!

Temp hovering above freezing here 1-2c when under cloud cover. Quite icy, nearly fell earlier!

[mikeocarroll]

A cold night here, got down to -4.0c at 2.00am, but as soon as the showers came they brought the warmth with them and fell as rain/hail.

[A_T]

Third day running of temps hovering around just above zero and showers streaming in from the NW.

[TonyH]

Meanwhile way above zero here, 6c.

That Irish Sea sure is warm this Winter.

[soupsurfer7]

That Irish Sea sure is warm this Winter.

Is that because of the mild autumn we had? How long do you think it will take to cool down to what it should be?