1080 replies to this topic

[Thundery wintry showers]

This may disappoint some in here, but a mild or very mild Christmas Day is far from "nailed", though it looks more likely than not to happen in the south. The reason for this is that although a build of pressure around the 20th December is set to happen following a brief northerly outbreak, the build of pressure could last for most of the last third of December as per Ian Brown's repeated projection (meaning a mild Christmas for all) or it could stick around for just a few days followed by a change back to colder and more stormy westerly-dominated weather around Christmas (hence possibly average to fairly cold, especially in the north).

The models have shifted into strong agreement on bringing Friday's low further south and making it less deep, though this still presents a chance of severe gales in southern parts of England and thus is still worth keeping an eye on. A marginal rain/sleet/snow event is probable on its northern flank, mostly snow above about 200m and rain near sea level but there is a possibility of localised snowfalls down to near sea level due to evaporative cooling.
@ajpoolshark- beat me to it, d'oh!

Meanwhile the northerly outbreak leading up to the hypothesised "mild Christmas" has been toned up in intensity, such that most places that see showers from it from the Midlands north will probably get snow. The main issue is the distribution of shower activity- a north to north-westerly flow leaves most of the UK in the "wishbone area" and Wales and SW England would be most favoured for showers, which would probably fall as a wintry mix there. It's a long way off though.

Edited by Paul, 12 December 2011 - 11:11 .

[Snow Guy]

Much happier with the GFS track on fridays storm.

[WhiteFox]

What's all this "nailed on" stuff anyway? It's my new least favourite phrase after "faux cold". To me, nailed on looks like a catherine wheel on a fence, spinning furiously; at the weekend the LP for this weekend looked like that, but things change. For some a bit of advice is required: don't start speculating about massive and widespread damage just because a terrifying catherine wheel is shown to be spinning towards the country. There's enough hyperbole in the media without seeing it in here as well.
So, a less intense storm, but the lower intensity results in the system tracking further south instead of taking a left turn which is the wont of the rapidly deepening systems. Looks like being a very unsettled week in the south for a change, and I look forward to it. The form horse following on from the weekend toppler is milder zonality as Ian Brown likes to point out, but I notice that the jetstream is forecast to remain very strong and flat across the Pacific so, as ever, events over the US will play a large part in the flow across the Atlantic and ultimately the UK.

[happy days]

GFS06Z showing a pretty damn frigid 4 day cold spell starting on fris with temps barely above freezing in the day for quite afew places!!
Will look forward to a very festive run up to christmas with early and late frost for many

Edited by happy days, 12 December 2011 - 10:35 .

[Nick F]

With regards to what happens beyond the end of the week and the the run up to Xmas period, it's all very well saying there's uncertainty beyond the end of the week - because the models haven't resolved the track of Friday's low which may have a knock-on effect.

But this is finer detail in the great scheme of what's happening and individual lows will not have a huge impact on the overall upper pattern in the northern hemisphere that looks likely to prevail as we enter the Xmas period - which looks likely to be deep troughing continuing to the NW which may force a ridge to build towards western Europe from the Azores. So, what the models and teleconnections have been consistently showing for a few days now is either high pressure builds across the UK towards Xmas, or less palatable southwesterlies instead.

We do have a northerly/northwesterly toppler to look forward to (though maybe downgraded) and the ridge building in may retain the cold Pm air, but it looks like the jet will reset to more northerly track over NW Europe with a SW-NE path.

[NorthernRab]

Thundery wintry showers, on 12 December 2011 - 10:30 , said:

eanwhile the northerly outbreak leading up to the hypothesised "mild Christmas" has been toned up in intensity, such that most places that see showers from it from the Midlands north will probably get snow. The main issue is the distribution of shower activity- a north to north-westerly flow leaves most of the UK in the "wishbone area" and Wales and SW England would be most favoured for showers, which would probably fall as a wintry mix there. It's a long way off though.

I hadn't realised that Scotland had left the United Kingdom, most especially the Scottish Highlands?

I'm of course joking, but the 06z would potentially deliver some great snowfalls for Highland Scotland.

Edited by NorthernRab, 12 December 2011 - 10:36 .

[shedhead]

WhiteFox, on 12 December 2011 - 10:32 , said:

What's all this "nailed on" stuff anyway? It's my new least favourite phrase after "faux cold". To me, nailed on looks like a catherine wheel on a fence, spinning furiously; at the weekend the LP for this weekend looked like that, but things change. For some a bit of advice is required: don't start speculating about massive and widespread damage just because a terrifying catherine wheel is shown to be spinning towards the country. There's enough hyperbole in the media without seeing it in here as well.
So, a less intense storm, but the lower intensity results in the system tracking further south instead of taking a left turn which is the wont of the rapidly deepening systems. Looks like being a very unsettled week in the south for a change, and I look forward to it. The form horse following on from the weekend toppler is milder zonality as Ian Brown likes to point out, but I notice that the jetstream is forecast to remain very strong and flat across the Pacific so, as ever, events over the US will play a large part in the flow across the Atlantic and ultimately the UK.

What's all this "form horse" stuff anyway? Have I entered the Tote's forum by mistake??.. 06 GFS again takes the LP further south later this week and as TWS said results in a rather more potent Pm shot, but towards the end of the reliable we're still looking at the development of a mild/very mild pre Xmas evolution. Perhaps not quite a hairdrier, but a decent hand dryer nonetheless...

Edited by shedhead, 12 December 2011 - 10:44 .

[Robbie Garrett]

Thundery wintry showers, on 12 December 2011 - 10:30 , said:

This may disappoint some gloaters in here, but a mild or very mild Christmas Day is far from "nailed", though it looks more likely than not to happen in the south. The reason for this is that although a build of pressure around the 20th December is set to happen following a brief northerly outbreak, the build of pressure could last for most of the last third of December as per Ian Brown's repeated projection (meaning a mild Christmas for all) or it could stick around for just a few days followed by a change back to colder and more stormy westerly-dominated weather around Christmas (hence possibly average to fairly cold, especially in the north).

The models have shifted into strong agreement on bringing Friday's low further south and making it less deep, though this still presents a chance of severe gales in southern parts of England and thus is still worth keeping an eye on. A marginal rain/sleet/snow event is probable on its northern flank, mostly snow above about 200m and rain near sea level but there is a possibility of localised snowfalls down to near sea level due to evaporative cooling.
@ajpoolshark- beat me to it, d'oh!

Meanwhile the northerly outbreak leading up to the hypothesised "mild Christmas" has been toned up in intensity, such that most places that see showers from it from the Midlands north will probably get snow. The main issue is the distribution of shower activity- a north to north-westerly flow leaves most of the UK in the "wishbone area" and Wales and SW England would be most favoured for showers, which would probably fall as a wintry mix there. It's a long way off though.

I think you are right.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ajpoolshark, on 12 December 2011 - 10:27 , said:

Interesting GFS run regarding fridays LP...My memory is hazy, but hasn't the GFS reverted back to its earlier runs from a few days back when it showed this system as a channel Low?...I'm sure I remember members posting on this....Interesting because there are tantalizing possibilities of a marginal snow event for central parts of the UK if this particular run verified?

Correct it showed that. It is my preferred thoughts re track too.

BFTP

[Optimus Prime]

Quite astonishing the ECM yesterday took the lead into downgrading the storm into nothing to be concerned about. Now the GFS has downgraded it and pushed it further south effecting Northern France.

Doesn't mean it won't happen but it bodes well for Friday to be windy and wet rather than stormy and wet.

Edited by Optimus Prime, 12 December 2011 - 10:49 .

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Snow Guy, on 12 December 2011 - 10:30 , said:

Much happier with the GFS track on fridays storm.

Could you say why? Trying to avoid one liners which don't actually add to the discussion.

[happy days]

GFS low res again keen on transfering the azores high into Europe.
Only a trend at the moment but one we want to buzz off quickly.
edits i notice the continental advert on the tele promoting winter tyres has been on the air a lot less recently i bet sales are down on last year

Edited by happy days, 12 December 2011 - 10:52 .

[shedhead]

Thundery wintry showers, on 12 December 2011 - 10:30 , said:

This may disappoint some gloaters in here, but a mild or very mild Christmas Day is far from "nailed", though it looks more likely than not to happen in the south. The reason for this is that although a build of pressure around the 20th December is set to happen following a brief northerly outbreak, the build of pressure could last for most of the last third of December as per Ian Brown's repeated projection (meaning a mild Christmas for all) or it could stick around for just a few days followed by a change back to colder and more stormy westerly-dominated weather around Christmas (hence possibly average to fairly cold, especially in the north).

The models have shifted into strong agreement on bringing Friday's low further south and making it less deep, though this still presents a chance of severe gales in southern parts of England and thus is still worth keeping an eye on. A marginal rain/sleet/snow event is probable on its northern flank, mostly snow above about 200m and rain near sea level but there is a possibility of localised snowfalls down to near sea level due to evaporative cooling.
@ajpoolshark- beat me to it, d'oh!

Meanwhile the northerly outbreak leading up to the hypothesised "mild Christmas" has been toned up in intensity, such that most places that see showers from it from the Midlands north will probably get snow. The main issue is the distribution of shower activity- a north to north-westerly flow leaves most of the UK in the "wishbone area" and Wales and SW England would be most favoured for showers, which would probably fall as a wintry mix there. It's a long way off though.

Yes this could happen, but can I ask what you see in either the current outputs or teleconnections to say this is a vaiable alternative to the increasingly well modelled mild/very mild SW'erly set up?

Edited by shedhead, 12 December 2011 - 10:53 .

[happy days]

Ian Brown, on 12 December 2011 - 10:51 , said:

Some intensely low heights to the NW being shown on the 06z together with HP over Biscay, a real hairdryer is possible although it depends how close the High gets to the UK.
Synoptically going forward, if you are looking for cold down the line, then we are about as far behind the eight ball as it would be possible to be.

Blimey ian your posts are going into overdrive,lol.
No need to panic the very best winters of yesteryear only got going in Jan and sometimes Feb.
The extended outlook though does look a tad 'poor' shall we say.

[Paul_1978]

tinybill, on 12 December 2011 - 09:59 , said:

well it looking sort of mild for xmas day !!! but is there a beast from the east coming for the new year yes i know its f1 things could change!!!

How many times....it's FI.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Ian Brown, on 12 December 2011 - 10:51 , said:

Some intensely low heights to the NW being shown on the 06z together with HP over Biscay, a real hairdryer is possible although it depends how close the High gets to the UK.
Synoptically going forward, if you are looking for cold down the line, then we are about as far behind the eight ball as it would be possible to be.

Ian
Can you state clearly what your thoughts are when this heatwave will start, how long it will last etc etc. FWIW I agree that a milder slot is coming but I'll also say its the start of the new pattern change and real cold will be upon us during 2nd week of Jan....and not a 5+ week run of mild SW'lies as you are thinking.

Just watching This Morning and The Express has the 100mph winds coming and worst storms for 30 years headlines..... Express has said it.


BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST, 12 December 2011 - 11:26 .

[shedhead]

Paul_1978, on 12 December 2011 - 10:59 , said:

How many times....it's FI.

It might be FI Paul, but when was the last time we saw GFS produce a different evolution from T+180hrs? At least this time last week they were toying with greater amplification and some
cold shots in the pre Xmas week, but across the last 20 or so runs they have been very consistent and as I said previously, if they had been modelling bitter cold for Xmas in the same way
this forum would be in overdrive.

Edited by shedhead, 12 December 2011 - 11:08 .

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Can the point scoring and bickering stop now?

[Optimus Prime]

After last December and the previous two I think it was a safe bet for this one to come in more normal/mild with regards to pressure patterns as is often the case and in particular a very mild year like this.

Look at December 1981 and then 1982. CET was 0.3c and 4.4c respectively. North was cold in December 1982 and the far south was fairly average. December 1982 was extremely unsettled with some exceptionally unsettled weather. November 1993 was cold/November 1994 was the warmest on record. Patterns are matching quite nicely to those years.

I think Ian is perfectly correct in saying a mild or possibly very mild Christmas period is perhaps greater than evens chance this year. Early next week shows high pressure to the south after the cold northerly pulling in some mild air. Initially cold.

[Barb-]

ajpoolshark, on 12 December 2011 - 10:27 , said:

Interesting GFS run regarding fridays LP...My memory is hazy, but hasn't the GFS reverted back to its earlier runs from a few days back when it showed this system as a channel Low?...I'm sure I remember members posting on this....Interesting because there are tantalizing possibilities of a marginal snow event for central parts of the UK if this particular run verified?

True, there are some cold uppers on the Northern edge of that low. If it aligns right it could be interesting.



The control shows this potential snow event



Worth keeping an eye on maybe...