1080 replies to this topic

[Paul]

Please continue here!

[Matty M]

Extremely low confidence in short term forecasts from the models this morning for the storm on Friday and even diagreement with the set up of this approaching Atlantic depression. A wide spread of GFS EPS solutions are available.

The main headline would be that the storm for Friday is now more likely to affect more southern areas and be less intense. However this model uncertainty is extremely high and i think we will be watching this closely right up to T0, it is going to really play havoc with our heads i believe.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Just another thought as well , for the last week Some Snow has been forecast for parts of Southern England and Wales tomorrow night . In places this could lead to blizzards with the Isobars so tightly packed. Wales looks at high risk to me .

[NickR]

snowmadchrisuk, on 12 December 2011 - 07:44 , said:

Just another thought as well , for the last week Some Snow has been forecast for parts of Southern England and Wales tomorrow night . In places this could lead to blizzards with the Isobars so tightly packed. Wales looks at high risk to me .

And similar up north on Thurs/Fri
http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs963.gif
http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs964.gif
http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs993.gif
http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs994.gif

[snow drift]

snowmadchrisuk, on 12 December 2011 - 07:44 , said:

Just another thought as well , for the last week Some Snow has been forecast for parts of Southern England and Wales tomorrow night . In places this could lead to blizzards with the Isobars so tightly packed. Wales looks at high risk to me .

Apart from very high, it will be to warm with rain for all.

The wind direction is south or SW.

I can't see anything on the output to suggest what you are suggesting.

[Liam J]

Changes even in the short term, after a slight downgrade for the depression on Tuesday during yesterday the 00z runs from UKMO & ECM now progging very deep lows down to 950hpa crossing Northern UK with severe gales or storm force winds possible.

Confidence is very low for the end of the week I would say given that the Meto have included the whole UK in blanket warnings..

[ANYWEATHER]

These charts below would be horrible for anything Wintry towards Xmas itself, if the later stages of the of the Gfs came off , but as far as Im concerned we can scrap that scenario, there is too much of a powerful jet, so any ridges will be flattened pretty quickly, I think the current weather will be with us into the New Year.....

Attached Thumbnails

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Edited by ANYWEATHER, 12 December 2011 - 08:05 .

[snowmadchrisuk]

snow drift, on 12 December 2011 - 07:57 , said:

Apart from very high, it will be to warm with rain for all.

The wind direction is south or SW.

I can't see anything on the output to suggest what you are suggesting.

Plenty of -5 850's around in the South West/Wales and sub 528 dam line Thursday morning for example , I am not suggesting sea level snow but there is alot of high ground round this area . The netweather Snow charts pick this risk up also .

[AndyLincs]

Seem's to have been a pivotal 24 hours in terms of changes to the percieved Thurs/Fri trends seen consistently over the past few days. Previous suggestions of it being very intense and a Northerly track being replaced by a less intense and more southerly track are interesting to follow. I'm certainly no expert but at the moment it seems to be playing roulette with all of us with the wheel certainly still spinning.

Edited by AndyLincs, 12 December 2011 - 08:13 .

[shedhead]

Models very much 'on track' as far as the pre Xmas evolution is concerned, though naturally the devil will be in the detail across the next 4 or 5 days. After average to cold spell, milder weather next week is now pretty much nailed, with Xmas itself possibly becoming very mild for many. On the a +ive note though (IMBY it must be said) at least it should be drier down here in the Westcountry, with rain and wind becoming increasingly confined to the far northwest as the big day approaches. One thing is certain, it's wheels for Santa this year, not runners....

Edited by shedhead, 12 December 2011 - 08:35 .

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

With the uncertainty of even Friday's storm Shed I'm interested in your confidence for beyond.

Back to models and as suggested the storm has been pushed south again. It is IMO getting more like the track expected and the runs by the GFS Fri, Sat pushing the storm for this Fri up over and north of Scotland seemed off the mark. We also see futher signs that the following ridge won't be a 12-24hr thing but more robust.

I have my views re Christmas week [maybe not palatable but lets wait til we get this storm out of the way] as its track will affect the floowing ridge etc etc. I think the metO maybe concerned that this storm is also going to head further south.

BFTP

[Stuart]

shedhead, on 12 December 2011 - 08:35 , said:

Models very much 'on track' as far as the pre Xmas evolution is concerned, though naturally the devil will be in the detail across the next 4 or 5 days. After average to cold spell, milder weather next week is now pretty much nailed, with Xmas itself possibly becoming very mild for many. On the a +ive note though (IMBY it must be said) at least it should be drier down here in the Westcountry, with rain and wind becoming increasingly confined to the far northwest as the big day approaches. One thing is certain, it's wheels for Santa this year, not runners....

I dont see how the Xmas weather is nailed i seen some colder runs at time to so it not nailed

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Ian Brown, on 12 December 2011 - 08:49 , said:

Yes, I would think the possibility of the mildest Xmas since 1988, although I suppose we are overdue a mild Xmas period.

So Xmas period or Xmas day Ian....just in case your SW'lies are delayed....again.

BFTP

[PMPhotography]

Interesting developments regarding Fridays storm. GFS showing It's somewhat downgraded and tracking a lot further south. Previous runs showed it "bowling" across the Atlantic deepening all the while. It now seems to weaken at around T78 before deepening as it heads toward the UK.
Plenty of time to change and the media are still mentioning the risk so some interesting developments to come in the next couple of days.

[Zakos]

shedhead, on 12 December 2011 - 08:35 , said:

Models very much 'on track' as far as the pre Xmas evolution is concerned, though naturally the devil will be in the detail across the next 4 or 5 days. After average to cold spell, milder weather next week is now pretty much nailed, with Xmas itself possibly becoming very mild for many. On the a +ive note though (IMBY it must be said) at least it should be drier down here in the Westcountry, with rain and wind becoming increasingly confined to the far northwest as the big day approaches. One thing is certain, it's wheels for Santa this year, not runners....

please correct me if I am wrong, but wasn't there supposed to be a "certain" pressure rise near the UK by this time? All GFS ensembles showed this at one point, and this week looks anything but settled. What is to say this wont happen again? I agree it looks like a probable evolution, but I remain skeptical until ~96 hours.

[shedhead]

BLAST FROM THE PAST, on 12 December 2011 - 08:58 , said:

With the uncertainty of even Friday's storm Shed I'm interested in your confidence for beyond.

Back to models and as suggested the storm has been pushed south again. It is IMO getting more like the track expected and the runs by the GFS Fri, Sat pushing the storm for this Fri up over and north of Scotland seemed off the mark. We also see futher signs that the following ridge won't be a 12-24hr thing but more robust.

I have my views re Christmas week [maybe not palatable but lets wait til we get this storm out of the way] as its track will affect the floowing ridge etc etc. I think the metO maybe concerned that this storm is also going to head further south.

BFTP

In my opinion Blast Fridays storm (if it is to be that) will have no bearing on what happens into next week, irrespective of it's ultimate track. We will see some degree of Pm incursion behind it's cold front, but into early next week pressure is going to build over Europe, pressure is going to remain low close to Iceland and we are going to see a SW'erly flow both in the run down to Xmas and across the holiday itself. As you say, it may not be palatable, but based on everything I can currently see, it's as inevitable as night following day.

Edited by shedhead, 12 December 2011 - 09:12 .

[weathe20]

shedhead, on 12 December 2011 - 08:35 , said:

Models very much 'on track' as far as the pre Xmas evolution is concerned, though naturally the devil will be in the detail across the next 4 or 5 days. After average to cold spell, milder weather next week is now pretty much nailed, with Xmas itself possibly becoming very mild for many. On the a +ive note though (IMBY it must be said) at least it should be drier down here in the Westcountry, with rain and wind becoming increasingly confined to the far northwest as the big day approaches. One thing is certain, it's wheels for Santa this year, not runners....

Ian Brown, on 12 December 2011 - 08:49 , said:

Yes, I would think the possibility of the mildest Xmas since 1988, although I suppose we are overdue a mild Xmas period.

So the milder air arrives at +189 on the latest GFS. If it was showing a severe cold spell starting at +189 im sure you would be saying its FI. So next weeks mild is nailed is it??.........FI.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

shedhead, on 12 December 2011 - 09:10 , said:

In my opinion Blast Fridays storm (if it is to be that) will have no bearing on what happens into next week, irrespective of it's ultimate track. We will see some degree of Pm incursion behind it's cold front, but into early next week pressure is going to build over Europe, pressure is going to remain low close to Iceland and we are going to see a SW'erly flow both in the run down to Xmas and across the holiday itself. As you say, it may not be palatable, but based on everything I can currently see, it's as inevitable as night following day.

Just like this month so far? Like I say I have my views but I'm waiting a tad longer. I like your confidence

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST, 12 December 2011 - 09:16 .

[Zakos]

weathe20, on 12 December 2011 - 09:14 , said:

So the milder air arrives at +189 on the latest GFS. If it was showing a severe cold spell starting at +189 im sure you would be saying its FI. So next weeks mild is nailed is it??.........FI.

precisely! Even at less than 100 hours, some will say "cold will get watered down" or "unlikely to verify" if there is any cold forecast, yet if it shows mild weather at +180hours, its gospel??

[OldMetMan]

Subtle changes in the models this morning, the predicted storm for the end of the week now looking to be more complex, with warm frontal wave(s) running ahead of the main LP. This idea was suggested yesterday by the NOGAPS. This suggests to me that the LP will take a more W-E track, moving faster and deepening all the while as it crosses the country. It also suggests the area of strongest winds will be over the S of the country, within the warm sector.

With the added complexity of the LP though, there could well be strong gradients S of the centre or centres after the fronts have passed through. Judging by the forecast jet, these systems will be going really fast.

I notice the MetO are hedging their bets by including the whole country in theor latest warnings, so clearly there is consdierable uncertainty at this stage.