Atlantic Storms - 12th December 2011 Onwards

[NickR]

Back online at last!! 48 hours with no home phone/broadband!

Catastrophic damage would occur with this storm, 80mph+ sustained winds over the Irish Sea overnight into Friday with winds over Northern England of 70mph+ over land! Gusts could easily reach 100-110mph. I don't even think you would be safe in your house tbh with a risk of massive structural damage.

I hope this downgrades or moves away from the UK, people would be killed, Christmas would be ruined at the very least with damage to your house which for some would be extensive and there would be major power supply outages.

To be frank, this is ridiculous and irresponsible without caveats: IF your house is in an exposed location and/or in at some altitude. Many houses are sheltered by other houses and buildings, which would mean they are NOT at risk of such major damage.

Edited December 11, 2011 by NickR

[January Snowstorm]

It looks quite similar to the Christmas eve storm of 1997, although even more intense on the last charts.,

I dunno could you get worse than that storm Matty it was an intense storm worst in a 100 years!

It certainly has the potential to be as bad though.

A lot of model runs to go yet, it could easily spin further North and avoid most of the country.

Indeed the favoured option in these setups is that it will do that

[BleakMidwinter]

I agree that if people stay indoors, the risks to life and limb are minimal. It worked in Scotland on thursday...

What will probably get destroyed or damaged are garages, building-sites, advertising hoardings, all those things which are not well-built in the first place or are temporary. Portakabins, temporary classrooms that have been used for fifteen years, static caravan parks, all those things are liable to blow over, blow apart, blow away.

And trampolines.

[toggerob]

Jumping into this albeit catching up a little, a low of 940mb is going to bring exceptional gusts wherever it lands in the UK, we saw the disruption such a strong system brought to Scotland only a few days ago and now the northern half of the UK is going to have the same twice in a week. The lowest recorded barometric pressure incidentally was 925.6mb in Ireland, way back in the late 1880s so we have a long way before this is shown to be beaten, however anything can happen between now and Friday so its advisable to keep following the threads as we all are and just let the neighbours/townsfolk know that this weather could be on the way.

If we reach out to at least one more person who was unaware of it, then its one less person in danger afterall.

[Liam J]

To be frank, this is ridiculous and irresponsible without caveats: IF your house is in an exposed location and/or in at some altitude. Many houses are sheltered by other houses and buildings, which would mean they are NOT at risk of such major damage.

Many areas close to the coast, small villages and towns in elevated positions would suffer damage, ranging from minor to extensive, gusts of 70-80mph can cause damage let alone sustained winds of that magnitude. current model outputs could potentially break low level wind gust records in places.

During the January 2005 storm gusts of 80-90mph were recorded up here, chimneys were smashed through the roof of some houses, some roofs were stripped of all the slates leaving the wood structures visible, mature trees were toppled or snapped like match sticks.

All speculation at the moment.

Edited December 11, 2011 by Liam J

[Matty M]

I dunno could you get worse than that storm Matty it was an intense storm worst in a 100 years!

It certainly has the potential to be as bad though.

A lot of model runs to go yet, it could easily spin further North and avoid most of the country.

Indeed the favoured option in these setups is that it will do that

Id love to see a SLP chart for 6pm or 9pm, you can only see it over the UK as a sub 980mb storm.

Must have been a sting jet associated with it.

I remember trying to make a few rashers on a miniature gas thing and not being able to play with my scaletric santa got me!

We were up at about 5am!

[NickR]

Many areas close to the coast, small villages and towns in elevated positions would suffer damage, ranging from minor to extensive, gusts of 70-80mph can cause damage let alone sustained winds of that magnitude. current model outputs could potentially break low level wind gust records in places.

During the January 2005 storm gusts of 80-90mph were recorded up here, chimneys were smashed through the roof of some houses, some roofs were stripped of all the slates leaving the wood structures visible, mature trees were toppled or snapped like match sticks.

All which is very different from your general, apocalyptic warning, IMO.

[January Snowstorm]

Yes Matty, I was out in it and I remember the trees falling like domino's

It was lethal though as you say doesn't look much at all on the archive charts

As you rightly say must have been a very severe sting jet

[Liam J]

All which is very different from your general, apocalyptic warning, IMO.

Loosing your roof is classed as major damage in my book, which is what would happen to some homes should this storm make landfall with the predicted intensity. Currently progged more severe than the storms of Boxing day 1996 and January 2005 and perhaps the burns day storm in the early 90's.

Anyway, sorry for my rather OTT warning! But currently this is looking like an exceptional windstorm event for some areas, not to be underestimated.

Edited December 11, 2011 by Liam J

[Mapantz]

Met Office have changed their warnings agian.

[Jayces]

Anyway, sorry for my rather OTT warning! But currently this is looking like an exceptional windstorm event for some areas, not to be underestimated.

I think therein lies the issue and the fact that most here are avid weather enthusiasts who will maybe get a bit over excited when more interesting weather comes along then what we had in November.

Yes, if the current outputs happened it would be bad but we just won't know until Wed Eve / Thu Morn where will be affected and how bad.

Use the forecast from the Meto for example, the yellow warning this morning was covering the whole of England for wind, now it's only the far SE England and Northern England / Souther Scotland. Additionally a heavy rain warning for the SW England has been added and then subsequently removed during today so that gives you an idea of how much Tuesdays event is changing and Fridays is even further off,

[kev238]

To me it seems inevitable that the Met Office will be issuing some more red warnings; very unclear as to exactly where at the moment. It looks at least as bad as the storm last week in Scotland and perhaps significantly worse.

[toggerob]

Loosing your roof is classed as major damage is my book, which is what would happen to some homes should this storm make landfall with the predicted intensity. Currently progged more severe than the storms of Boxing day 1996 and January 2005 and perhaps the burns day storm in the early 90's.

Anyway, sorry for my rather OTT warning! But currently this is looking like an exceptional windstorm event for some areas, not to be underestimated.

Not forgetting also with windfield damage in population areas aside from the risk of person threat from flying debris, that same debris can also strike other buildings or roofs causing further problems when there otherwise wouldn't have been any. Just from the fact the buildings are so close together and it's being carried the distance by the winds.

Added on top rainfalls & surge for coastal communities bringing flooding, the cost soon tallys up and at a time when noone wants to be paying for damage caused by forces uncontrolled by them.

[Liam J]

I think therein lies the issue and the fact that most here are avid weather enthusiasts who will maybe get a bit over excited when more interesting weather comes along then what we had in November.

Yes, if the current outputs happened it would be bad but we just won't know until Wed Eve / Thu Morn where will be affected and how bad.

Use the forecast from the Meto for example, the yellow warning this morning was covering the whole of England for wind, now it's only the far SE England and Northern England / Souther Scotland. Additionally a heavy rain warning for the SW England has been added and then subsequently removed during today so that gives you an idea of how much Tuesdays event is changing and Fridays is even further off,

Hence why I have used, 'should' 'could' and 'current outputs' In some of my previous posts. This could all change over the coming days and runs, but to have such broad model agreement on a very intense depression over the UK in 4 days time is a strong cause for concern.

interesting week of model watching, Tuesday will be very windy over many areas before we even get near to the latter half of the week.

Edited December 11, 2011 by Liam J

[philglossop]

Given my location- right down at sea level, a South Westerly wind is a nightmare for us. In last weeks "storm" we lost our electric supply due to cables coming down up the road, so the thought of a stronger storm coming up the SW approaches does not look good. Thankfully the bay is at the bottom of a cliff, but I'm taking no chances and removing all pots, garden furniture into the garage and cutting down any tree branches close to the house.

In the storms of 1987/1990 this house lost about 1/4 of the roof both times- so hopefully it won't develop as programmed.... <_<

Edited December 11, 2011 by philglossop

[Harsh Climate]

I think Northern ireland/southern scotland and northwest england are looking most likely to take the brunt from thu/fridays storm!

But as we know the track could be 200/300 miles different on the day. I wouldn't expect the storm to be much further south than progged, but possibly further north. I think this storm will be worse than the one scotland experienced a few days, with low lying areas maybe recieving gusts of in excess 90mph.

[wimblettben]

There will probably be no warnings of wind across any southern parts by tomorrow. To be honest I don't really understand why they didn't do this yesterday in the first place as it was pretty obvious that southern parts would get much lighter winds then the north.

People who were saying yesterday to me that winds of 40mph for inland southern parts of england is taking it a bit lightly need to realise that this is actually probably all we are going to get in reality but of course a much different story for northern areas.

And it is probably also unlikely that fridays storm will affect us much either unless a dramatic change occours. And yes I know that to some people that is good news but to me I think we are well overdue a proper windy spell down here. All I can see happening for southern areas is probably some twigs snapped off of trees and maybe some dustbins nocked over. The Met Office wouldn't take the warnings away for no reason!

[Mapantz]

Is it me, or do the MO warnings keep changing? They removed the Western/South Western warnings for a time, and now they're back again. Perhaps it's a glitch?

[Harsh Climate]

I really do feel though the worst damage is going to occur in northern ireland, if the low deepens further and sheers off further north west than expected, I feel northern ireland could have the worst storm in over 20 years! While most other areas dodge a bullet, but with still gale/severe gales in places.

Edited December 11, 2011 by Harsh Climate

[Liam J]

There will probably be no warnings of wind across any southern parts by tomorrow. To be honest I don't really understand why they didn't do this yesterday in the first place as it was pretty obvious that southern parts would get much lighter winds then the north.

People who were saying yesterday to me that winds of 40mph for inland southern parts of england is taking it a bit lightly need to realise that this is actually probably all we are going to get in reality but of course a much different story for northern areas.

And it is probably also unlikely that fridays storm will affect us much either unless a dramatic change occours. And yes I know that to some people that is good news but to me I think we are well overdue a proper windy spell down here. All I can see happening for southern areas is probably some twigs snapped off of trees and maybe some dustbins nocked over. The Met Office wouldn't take the warnings away for no reason!

Southern areas would have severe gales with strong gusts of wind around 70mph in places, 50-60mph inland.

While northern areas would possibly exceed 100mph with a real threat to life and property, should the current model predictions prove correct.

Edited December 11, 2011 by Liam J

[gottolovethisweather]

It seems our very own NickF is agreeing with my analysis for the early part of the week as per my post 234.

See here - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71847-london-and-the-south-east-regional-discussion-thread/page__view__findpost__p__2180530

Kind Regards

gottolovethisweather

[Iceberg]

There will probably be no warnings of wind across any southern parts by tomorrow. To be honest I don't really understand why they didn't do this yesterday in the first place as it was pretty obvious that southern parts would get much lighter winds then the north.

People who were saying yesterday to me that winds of 40mph for inland southern parts of england is taking it a bit lightly need to realise that this is actually probably all we are going to get in reality but of course a much different story for northern areas.

And it is probably also unlikely that fridays storm will affect us much either unless a dramatic change occours. And yes I know that to some people that is good news but to me I think we are well overdue a proper windy spell down here. All I can see happening for southern areas is probably some twigs snapped off of trees and maybe some dustbins nocked over. The Met Office wouldn't take the warnings away for no reason!

Before we right off southern areas, it's worth having a look at the Jetstream and 850 wind forecasts. The reason for this is that as the fronts actively cross the southern UK the nature of the storm will likely mean that the instability will drag the strong winds down to the surface here. At times the upper winds are actually stronger across the southern UK. I think the Met O warnings are pointing to this instability which is not going to be very easy to forecast hence the increased uncertainty.

[gottolovethisweather]

Windy all the way next week, is the best way to sum it up.

Monday (tomorrow) could be interesting in the Southwest and Wales initially, with the risk extending to the Southern coastal and SouthEastern regions, come late afternoon into the evening.

Tuesday and Wednesday generally breezy/windy over a vast part of the country but it will be the GUSTINESS of the winds that will be of note.

Thursday into Friday, it's RAMPING UP again.

At this stage, the timing and positioning of the bands of rain are of particular interest because there COULD be a wintry mix in places at times. I'm paying particular attention to overnight Tuesday at this moment in time, for folk down south, maybe some hill snow briefly?

All my analysis is taken from the MetO output ONLY.

Stay Safe all.

gottolovethisweather

It seems our very own NickF is agreeing with my analysis for the early part of the week as per my post 234.

See here - http://forum.netweat...ost__p__2180530

Kind Regards

gottolovethisweather

[Luke]

Met office warnings for here have practically gone!

[wimblettben]

Met office warnings for here have practically gone!

Ours have as well!