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Atlantic Storms - 12th December 2011 Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Well, the conveyor belt of Atlantic low pressure systems seems to be bringing us more storms and possible disruption next week.

Will the next systems come in more to he North or the South? Will the 165mph gust from this week be beaten? Will next doors wheelie bin be found in the next County?

3312689970_39dcfc5b46.jpg

Continue your conversation here!

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Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

Tuesdays low has a preassure gradiant of 964mb that's simular to a cat 3 hurricane, this certainly has the pottencial to pack a punch and what's worrying is Thursday/Fridays low looks pottencially stronger still.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

I'll just repost this one from the old thread (thanks Harps) for thought. This hasn't 'downgraded' on GFS for the last few runs and whilst that doesn't mean it's set in stone, we must be getting closer to the point where we are looking at another big battering.

gfs-0-150_eqe8.png

I'll also add the following convective indicators which although +72 hours away, are far more intense than the last set for this weeks storm, at the same time-scale.

Is this going to be even bigger? Look at the convective gust speeds and particularly where they are going to hit in this run - even the SE comes in for a huge blast if these play out:

gfs_cape_eur72.png

Watch out Kent and Sussex too!

gfs_gusts_eur72.png

gfs_srh_eur72.png

gfs_stp_eur72.png

Flooding in the SW?

gfs_prec_eur72.png

:ph34r:

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Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

This hasn't 'downgraded' on GFS for the last few runs and whilst that doesn't mean it's set in stone, we must be getting closer to the point where we are looking at another big battering.

:ph34r:

That actually looks positively scary lol :(

GFS has London and SE to have gusts of upto 65mph on Friday and in access of 70-80mph on the south coast.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.

If the ECM 00z looks like coming to fruition closer to zero hour I'll buy myself some extra batteries for the trusty hand held anemometer and some lead weights for my boots.

That would certainly warrant a lengthy spell of recording on the moor at the back of my house.

Come to think of it I'll check the back up battery in the Davis on the roof because if that storm materialises I can smell power outages.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

It looks as though next week will go down in history as one to remember. So the convective charts are just showing the possibility of bad thunderstorms/lightning and even tornados?

Convective gusts and a threat (not sure how big or where yet) of tornadoes and hail. I shouldn't look at detail this far away but I was drawn to the 75/80 mph gusts in that chart I posted, as they are potentially right over my head!

I know, more runs, more detail, more accuracy! :doh:

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Posted
  • Location: near Jedburgh
  • Weather Preferences: well it depends.. just not haar!
  • Location: near Jedburgh

Is this more for England or will it hit us as well? My chicken run wont hold up to another storm and I'd need to get it fixed !

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Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

Is this more for England or will it hit us as well? My chicken run wont hold up to another storm and I'd need to get it fixed !

I think the whole of the UK will be effected to some extent, at the moment it looks more widespread then last weeks storm and the south-west is expected to take the brunt then it'll move up the channel towards SE & London/Home counties. As for Thursday/Friday's low obviously a good few days off yet so alot of time for changes but for me it's this pottencial storm we need to be keeping the closest eyes on as GFS has widespread gusts across southern England of 60 to 80mph, I think Tuesdays storm will produce gusts of 70-80mph in the south-west in particualar up the Bristol channel and in the Irish Sea with 45-55mph possible in SE.
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.

Is this more for England or will it hit us as well? My chicken run wont hold up to another storm and I'd need to get it fixed !

It looks as if the Borders will be in for severe gales irrespective of whether the GFS or ECM is correct. The only difference at the moment is that the severe gales will last longer in your area with the GFS and will be more of a straight westerly. The ECM has the centre of the depression going right over your area so a severe south westerly gale to start then something of a lull before an equally severe north westerly sets in as the low moves to the east.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Is this more for England or will it hit us as well? My chicken run wont hold up to another storm and I'd need to get it fixed !

Ask on Monday morning!! The track is not nailed (or the ferocity) but currently, according to many models, anywhere could see huge gusts like this week and maybe more.

Flooding for the South?

rain-uk-2011121000-72.gif

Monday night into Tuesday currently look 'favourite' for the winds down here according to GFS:

Rtavn669.png

Then through the morning it gets worse in Scotland and the North:

Rtavn789.png

FSXX00T_84.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales/storms, snow, thunder!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

Ask on Monday morning!! The track is not nailed (or the ferocity) but currently, according to many models, anywhere could see huge gusts like this week and maybe more.

Flooding for the South?

rain-uk-2011121000-72.gif

Monday night into Tuesday currently look 'favourite' for the winds down here according to GFS:

Rtavn669.png

Then through the morning it gets worse in Scotland and the North:

Rtavn789.png

FSXX00T_84.jpg

948mb did I read that right? Ohh boy this could be BIG!! :shok::bomb:

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Oh dear!!

Two very nasty storms next week, Tuesday then Friday though the latter will be subject to alot of change (perhaps) but GFS is mighty consistant with this dangerous storm run to run so far, with near hurricane force winds for me90 -100mph+ gusts!! Tuesday looks bad enough with gusts of 80mph or more likely over the north looking at the 6z. :help:

Nothing really nailed on exactly at this range.

That double whammy would be an exceptional event over Northern britain and would cause utter chaos, north to south with even severe gales down there.

post-9615-0-22202500-1323517106_thumb.gi

post-9615-0-89349400-1323517115_thumb.gi

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

Yes tonights runs will tell a lot as regards the track of Tuesday's storm.

Looks really bad for parts of Ireland and of course at this time of year lots of people out and about.

Thursdays storm is subject to change and is a bit too far out really at the moment

it could easily spin further North and miss us altogether

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Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

Oh dear!!

Two very nasty storms next week, Tuesday then Friday though the latter will be subject to alot of change (perhaps) but GFS is mighty consistant with this dangerous storm run to run so far, with near hurricane force winds for me90 -100mph+ gusts!! Tuesday looks bad enough with gusts of 80mph or more likely over the north looking at the 6z. :help:

Nothing really nailed on exactly at this range.

That double whammy would be an exceptional event over Northern britain and would cause utter chaos, north to south with even severe gales down there.

It looks bad for northern areas but I doubt that southern parts of england will get winds above 45mph inland now.

The track of both of the lows for Tuesday and Friday looks no different to the one last week and we only had typical windy weather then.

Edited by wimblettben
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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

There will be further storms next week and some areas will get a battering at least equivient to last Thursday and potentially worst. That however is all we can currently say with any confidence, the

models will continue to chop and change across the next 48hrs, but all of these changes will simply be variations on the general theme. Personally I think the worst conditions have been progged,

there will probably be a lessening of intensity on subsequent runs as well as a steady shift north of the very strongest winds, but few if any areas look likely to have escaped a proper blow by this

time next week.

Edited by shedhead
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Plenty of interest coming this week storm watching wise. At the moment Fridays storm in FI looks the most powerful of the two but all this can change.

The pic of flying wheelie bin is that genuine or a bit of photoshop? Getting hit by flying wheelie bin would be extremely painful if not fatal.

Edited by The PIT
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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

It looks bad for northern areas but I doubt that southern parts of england will get winds above 45mph inland now.

The track of both of the lows for Tuesday and Friday looks no different to the one last week and we only had typical windy weather then.

you might want to check out the latest Meto warnings - they have been updated very recently and they seem to think otherwise

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_warnings.html

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Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

you might want to check out the latest Meto warnings - they have been updated very recently and they seem to think otherwise

http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

I don't think there weather models are the same but looking at the latest GFS the systems are certainly more further north then a few days ago.

I can only assume that they havn't taken the warning away because they don't use the GFS. I would have thought that the warnings for the the worst winds would be over Northern Ireland and Northern England going by that model. The Met Office seem to have our region covered in 50mph+ gusts but at the moment I don't see this happening.

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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

Stop ruining it for me Ben :cray:

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Posted
  • Location: near Jedburgh
  • Weather Preferences: well it depends.. just not haar!
  • Location: near Jedburgh

You can have my storm, Lauren, I dont want it. I already had one thanks. :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The south will get storms next week there is no doubt about it the question is Tuesday, Friday or both, anyone thinking the south will escape next week is thinking wrong.

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Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

Stop ruining it for me Ben :cray:

Believe you me Lauren, I wan't some more interesting whether for our neck of the woods as much as you do. In fact I get nervous every run hoping that the models continue to show proper windy whether.

I am just being a bit more realistic really to help lesson the annoyance if nothing happens.

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