374 replies to this topic

[MKsnowangel]

Just had a very heavy sleety shower, the car windscreen is covered but nothing on the path !

[tinybill]

MKsnowangel, on 13 December 2011 - 14:53 , said:

Yellow Alert of Wind for East of England :


Bedford, Cambridgeshire, Central Bedfordshire, Essex, Hertfordshire, Luton, Norfolk, Peterborough, Southend-on-Sea, Suffolk & Thurrock

valid from 1800 Thu 15 Dec to 2359 Fri 16 Dec

http://www.metoffice...184E2CFC2C_9_EE

still not sure are they|!!

[Ben_Cambs]

A cold day and windy. Plenty of heavy showers though nothing of a wintry variety here. Currently 2.8C.

I've been looking at the GFS runs of late, and at the moment, there is a possibility of some sleet or snow on Friday as the low moves away into the North sea. Not a huge risk atm, though something to keep on eye on.

Edited by Ben_Cambs, 13 December 2011 - 16:07 .

[Chilly Milly]

Hello fellow EA and 3C people. Looking forward to this winter and hoping for something to remember between now and Easter.

Getting rather chilly here this evening.

[MKsnowangel]

Nice to see so many familiar names finding there way back here....
...welcome to any newbies that might be lurking - don't be frightened to post and tell us who you are and where your from....we don't bite

[saint]

We've had two heavy showers in St Albans today, both of which contained a mixture of sleet, hail and some snow. Which has certainly surprised me, as I didn't expect anything very wintry today!

[Mrsf16]

Can someone post what the forecast is currently for the weekend? Should we be concerned about the winds and possible snow? Or should I say HOW concerned shoudl we be? xxx

Edited by Mrsf16, 13 December 2011 - 18:01 .

[shotski]

Wet snow in Leighton Buzzard today, ok maybe sleet on second thoughts. Good 2c

[Hughsey]

Mrsf16, on 13 December 2011 - 17:58 , said:

Can someone post what the forecast is currently for the weekend? Should we be concerned about the winds and possible snow? Or should I say HOW concerned shoudl we be? xxx

Im no expert but will go off what I reckon. The snow and wind risk is all dependant on where the low ends up. If the low ends up passing through the channel we will have little precipitation and slight winds, but if it heads through southern England we could see much stronger winds that are gale force with heavy rain and chance of some snow. As things stand I would not be concerned with the current output although there is a chance of some snow, and a chance of strong winds, hence the yellow warning for wind for the region. This event is worth keeping an eye on for sure.

My $0.02 with my basic knowledge.

Edited by hughsey, 13 December 2011 - 18:16 .

[Tim Mellors]

Ok - so it looks like the possibilities are:
1 - if the low heads through the channel then we are on the nothern side. Depending upon how much warm air is wrapped up in the mix, we could see snow, chances increasing as the low moves East and the colder air moves down. If the low is too far South we will be too far North of the main precipitation band.
2 - If the low moves more on a more northerly tack (say exiting over the Wash), then this would put us in the windier section with winds southerly, and then backing West eventually Northerly.

The system derives its energy from the difference between the temperatures (and therefore relative humidity) over the western Atlantic where it will form. The more energy in the system the more precipitation and wind, but also the further north its track will be.

[Mrsf16]

Thanks So still if butts and maybes. Thanks xxx

[shotski]

Tim Mellors, on 13 December 2011 - 18:27 , said:

Ok - so it looks like the possibilities are:
1 - if the low heads through the channel then we are on the nothern side. Depending upon how much warm air is wrapped up in the mix, we could see snow, chances increasing as the low moves East and the colder air moves down. If the low is too far South we will be too far North of the main precipitation band.
2 - If the low moves more on a more northerly tack (say exiting over the Wash), then this would put us in the windier section with winds southerly, and then backing West eventually Northerly.

The system derives its energy from the difference between the temperatures (and therefore relative humidity) over the western Atlantic where it will form. The more energy in the system the more precipitation and wind, but also the further north its track will be.

What Low ? Have you seen the latest ECM run ?

[Tim Mellors]

I was wondering as well - I think that the 06 GFS also didn't really form it up completely. Lets see though, its the potential that's more concerning I think. Bear in mind though that our region is famous for being a sort of magical weather-free zone anyway.

[boo1981]

Wow what a day for weather extremes!!
We have had wind, rain, hail, sleet and snow!
Absolutely amazing
Looking forward to the winter getting a hold of the UK and bringing us lots of snow

[final dest]

hello all.

Back again for another winter.

Any news on what lies ahead for us over the next week or so. Have not yet renewed my extra account just yet, waiting for di money to arrive first.

Currently in colchester and have been watching wave after wave of showers heading in this direction but fizzle out over west london. Was hoping to see a sleet/snow flurry today but have been preparing the best window's in the house ready for the lampost watching to come in the coming days/weeks

[Floatylight]

Hello everyone.mo just put us on cold weather alert level 2.
wintry showers and cold winds.From tues pm to sat.

[shotski]

Samantha Jane Lindsey, on 13 December 2011 - 21:09 , said:

Hello everyone.mo just put us on cold weather alert level 2.
wintry showers and cold winds.From tues pm to sat.

Can't see it myself, think they will change it tomorrow.

[Floatylight]

Dont they always!i used to get excited now i just wait and see.
I think it depends on how far south this storm is as to weather we catch the cold air on its northan flank.I defo no expert just reading the model forums lol.

[shotski]

Samantha Jane Lindsey, on 13 December 2011 - 21:26 , said:

Dont they always!i used to get excited now i just wait and see.
I think it depends on how far south this storm is as to weather we catch the cold air on its northan flank.I defo no expert just reading the model forums lol.

I think the storm at the end of the week has been slowly down graded, as you say we could get some decent cold on the back edge as it
passes through. For decent cold look to the new year and a scandi high developing

[Ben_Cambs]

It will be interesting to watch the modelling of the track of the low tomorrow. I suspect there will be changes in the track of the low throughout tomorrow's runs, and right up to T+0.
It reminds me of occasion in February 2010 (either 22nd or 23rd?) when there were very significant changes in the northern extent of a low. Originally, it was too far north for most of the region + 3 counties so as a result, it was forecast to rain with only some back-edge snow as the low cleared out. Then about 12-18 hours beforehand, the northern extent of the low was positioned slightly further south, so the far north of the region would see snow. However, just 6 hours before the event, the position of the low was modelled further south so the whole region (as far as I can remember) saw a period of snow on that day. Friday is a different set-up, though a slight change in the track of the low could be very significant for the worse or better. I feel some back edge snow is a fairly reasonable possibility though for now the chances of the front remaining mostly as snow are highly unlikely. Though this is based on the current output.

Friday will come into the range of the high-resolution NAE model tomorrow which among many options predicts precipitation type (rain/snow), so it will be interesting to see what it shows tomorrow for Friday.

http://www.weatheron...E=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0

Edited by Ben_Cambs, 13 December 2011 - 22:06 .