694 replies to this topic

[Alza]

Obviously the wind is the main story at the minute, but the GFS is becoming even more bullish about bringing a spell of snow to Northumberland at least on Saturday, and maybe other parts of the NE and Cumbria - if the 12z came off parts of Northumberland would get an inch or two.

[Snowstorm1]

alza, on 08 December 2011 - 19:07 , said:

Obviously the wind is the main story at the minute, but the GFS is becoming even more bullish about bringing a spell of snow to Northumberland at least on Saturday, and maybe other parts of the NE and Cumbria - if the 12z came off parts of Northumberland would get an inch or two.

Yes local ITV mentioned this feature hopefully it can make it throughout the whole region so we all get a covering of snow

[Cloud 10]

Wind turbine mayhem for any that missed it.

Wind Turbine Fire - a set on Flickr

[JP1972]

Newbie alert

Going to head up to Asda in about 15 minutes or so, so will experience some pretty hefty gusts no doubt. The wind appears to be picking up again now after a lull for much of the afternoon.

What's this about a possible snow event over the next 24-36hrs?

Keep safe everyone, however the models are suggesting we could be in for round two next week.

[Alza]

JP1972, on 08 December 2011 - 19:39 , said:

Newbie alert

Going to head up to Asda in about 15 minutes or so, so will experience some pretty hefty gusts no doubt. The wind appears to be picking up again now after a lull for much of the afternoon.

What's this about a possible snow event over the next 24-36hrs?

Keep safe everyone, however the models are suggesting we could be in for round two next week.

Nothing significant expected in terms of snow for the North East, but there's certainly the potential for a few flurries. I've got my eye on a little feature on Saturday which could deliver a light covering, especially the further north you go, although its worth bearing in mind that the conditions will be quite marginal for snow.

Basically, there is the chance for a bit of snow, but if you want guaranteed snow go to Alston or somewhere

EDIT: Just had a closer look at the GFS and it also seems to show the trough which will be giving the wintry showers to NW England will spread its influence across the NE with some light snow in the afternoon / evening, especially the further south and west you are in our region, so yet another thing to watch. Certainly looks like there will be more precipitation around than on Monday.

Edited by alza, 08 December 2011 - 19:53 .

[Snowstorm1]

alza, on 08 December 2011 - 19:49 , said:

Nothing significant expected in terms of snow for the North East, but there's certainly the potential for a few flurries. I've got my eye on a little feature on Saturday which could deliver a light covering, especially the further north you go, although its worth bearing in mind that the conditions will be quite marginal for snow.

Basically, there is the chance for a bit of snow, but if you want guaranteed snow go to Alston or somewhere

EDIT: Just had a closer look at the GFS and it also seems to show the trough which will be giving the wintry showers to NW England will spread its influence across the NE with some light snow in the afternoon / evening, especially the further south and west you are in our region, so yet another thing to watch. Certainly looks like there will be more precipitation around than on Monday.

Really ? Wouldn't mind a few snow showers as night time falls tomorrow which would mean IF it did lay would last to saturday

[Alza]

Snowstorm1, on 08 December 2011 - 19:56 , said:

Really ? Wouldn't mind a few snow showers as night time falls tomorrow which would mean IF it did lay would last to saturday

Personally I doubt many showers will make it across here, but go and have a look at the GFS in case you don't believe me! This reminds me of a toned down version of the 23rd March 2008 with a trough moving south through NW England. That delivered sleety snow to most of NW England, but over 10cm in parts of Cumbria. That event also gave a dusting to NE England, 10-15cm in Yorkshire, and 1-5cm in SE England eventually, but this trough definitely won't go on to do those last two. Oh, and that was a night time event.

[Snowstorm1]

alza, on 08 December 2011 - 20:02 , said:

Personally I doubt many showers will make it across here, but go and have a look at the GFS in case you don't believe me! This reminds me of a toned down version of the 23rd March 2008 with a trough moving south through NW England. That delivered sleety snow to most of NW England, but over 10cm in parts of Cumbria. That event also gave a dusting to NE England, 10-15cm in Yorkshire, and 1-5cm in SE England eventually, but this trough definitely won't go on to do those last two. Oh, and that was a night time event.

Oh yes! Hopefully I can catch some snow!

[Isolated Frost]

Tomorrow morning we could see heavy snow in parts of Cumbria, amongst other places outside our region.
The background to the event is thicker more precipitable cloud moves from the north giving a thin line of very heavy precipitation to parts of SW Scotland and NW England... this breaks up due to the pennines, but it's western side keeps it's intensity and could give constant rain and snow to parts of Cumbria all night! As the band moves south it then moves westwards and gives precipitation to parts of County Durham and N Yorkshire.

Here are a few charts for tomorrow morning from the NMM, available in NW Extra:
0300- band from scotland gets a touch more intense, moves more towards south cumbria... still a wintry mix
0600- begin to see more intensity... very heavy precip, mostly snow -5c uppers rather widespread, snow line around 200m still
0800- very heavy snow now, as the band moves north a tad
1000- heavy snow across the board, tees-side now affected, mostly wintry but rain near sea level -6c uppers for most probably wrong side of marginal below 100m

The 1200 chart is similar to the 1000 one but with a higher snow risk, probably snow line down to about 50-100m. Sorry for the long post.

Edited by Isolated Frost, 08 December 2011 - 20:27 .

[Thundery wintry showers]

I predicted that the winds here at Cleadon may peak around 9pm, and they're certainly getting more gusty, with the occasional cracking sound suggesting that the wind is shifting some roof tiles (though nothing like on the scale of the 8th January 2005 when those sounds occurred frequently rather than occasionally). Gusts reaching 90-100km/h at Newcastle Airport, with sustained 30 min wind speeds of about 60-70km/h, corresponding to 60mph and 40mph respectively.

[Snowstorm1]

Thankyou Isolated Frost so things COULD be interesting for me tomorrow.

So 3 Potential snow events id be happy with one delivering!

Teesside Snow Chance Are As Follows:

Tomorrow Morning 60% Falling 20% Laying
Tomorrow Evening 55% Falling 25% Laying
Saturday Morning 50% Falling 35% Laying

Overall 70% Falling 40% Laying at any stage
That is my opinon and open to debate but things are looking up!

Edited by Snowstorm1, 08 December 2011 - 20:32 .

[Thundery wintry showers]

I expect Cleadon to see some light wintry showers tomorrow judging by the outputs- probably rain/sleet rather than snow- and then perhaps some wet snow early on Saturday but I don't think enough will get east of the Pennines to give lying snow. Nonetheless the potential is there.

[Alza]

Isolated Frost, on 08 December 2011 - 20:22 , said:

Tomorrow morning we could see heavy snow in parts of Cumbria, amongst other places outside our region.
The background to the event is thicker more precipitable cloud moves from the north giving a thin line of very heavy precipitation to parts of SW Scotland and NW England... this breaks up due to the pennines, but it's western side keeps it's intensity and could give constant rain and snow to parts of Cumbria all night! As the band moves south it then moves westwards and gives precipitation to parts of County Durham and N Yorkshire.

Here are a few charts for tomorrow morning from the NMM, available in NW Extra:
0300- band from scotland gets a touch more intense, moves more towards south cumbria... still a wintry mix 0300-9dec.png
0600- begin to see more intensity... very heavy precip, mostly snow 0600-9dec.png -5c uppers rather widespread, snow line around 200m still 0600-9decuppers.png
0800- very heavy snow now, as the band moves north a tad 0800-9dec.png
1000- heavy snow across the board, tees-side now affected, mostly wintry but rain near sea level 1000-9dec.png -6c uppers for most probably wrong side of marginal below 100m 1000-9decuppers.png

The 1200 chart is similar to the 1000 one but with a higher snow risk, probably snow line down to about 50-100m. Sorry for the long post.

Those charts a fairly impressive - much of Cumbria is above 200m, so I'm sure many places could do very well out of this over there. A trip over could well be on the cards on Saturday if I've not got anything on

[Isolated Frost]

alza, on 08 December 2011 - 20:37 , said:

Those charts a fairly impressive - much of Cumbria is above 200m, so I'm sure many places could do very well out of this over there. A trip over could well be on the cards on Saturday if I've not got anything on

Yes indeed it's a fairly potent band of precip without me noticing it was really there... Teesdale and East/South East Cumbria to do best out of it... but wow Alston will be a postcard image by midday tomorrow!

[NickR]

Isolated Frost, on 08 December 2011 - 20:40 , said:

Yes indeed it's a fairly potent band of precip without me noticing it was really there... Teesdale and East/South East Cumbria to do best out of it... but wow Alston will be a postcard image by midday tomorrow!

I'm goiing to start planning my strategy for convincing my wife a trip to Alston on Saturday with the kids (4yr old and 10 month old) is an absolute must... are there any decent shops in Alston I can use as bait?

Edited by NickR, 08 December 2011 - 20:43 .

[Isolated Frost]

NickR, on 08 December 2011 - 20:42 , said:

I'm goiing to start planning my strategy for convincing my wife a trip to Alston on Saturday with the kids (4yr old and 10 month old) is an absolute must... are there any decent shops in Alston I can use as bait?

Not sure, but I'd imagine there are some beautiful little souvenir shops and christmassy little shops that the whole family would enjoy- a little bit of xmas shopping in a quaint little town with some serious snow to boot... aye, sound sound sound!

[NickR]

Isolated Frost, on 08 December 2011 - 20:48 , said:

Not sure, but I'd imagine there are some beautiful little souvenir shops and christmassy little shops that the whole family would enjoy- a little bit of xmas shopping in a quaint little town with some serious snow to boot... aye, sound sound sound!

I do love living up here!
Can't see me ever moving back down south TBH.

[Isolated Frost]

NickR, on 08 December 2011 - 20:53 , said:

I do love living up here!
Can't see me ever moving back down south TBH.

Yep indeed- Durham is such a beautiful city (apart from maybe some of the pit villages) and the scenery is amazing, but you are almost always assured in winter of going just down the road into the north pennines etc and seeing snow and little market towns... it's a fantastic place to be.

Just curious, where did you live when you were darn sarf?

[NickR]

Isolated Frost, on 08 December 2011 - 20:56 , said:

Yep indeed- Durham is such a beautiful city (apart from maybe some of the pit villages) and the scenery is amazing, but you are almost always assured in winter of going just down the road into the north pennines etc and seeing snow and little market towns... it's a fantastic place to be.

Just curious, where did you live when you were darn sarf?

Spent pretty much all my childhood and much of my 20s around Surrey/south London (Kingston-upon-Thames, nr Croydon). Lived for 2 years in Venezuela too.

Came to Durham 5 years ago this New Year. Love the city, love the county, love the Pennines, love the region. [Even if the summers are crap!]

[Isolated Frost]

NickR, on 08 December 2011 - 21:04 , said:

Spent pretty much all my childhood and much of my 20s around Surrey/south London (Kingston-upon-Thames, nr Croydon). Lived for 2 years in Venezuela too.

Came to Durham 5 years ago this New Year. Love the city, love the county, love the Pennines, love the region. [Even if the summers are crap!]

Indeed, a nice place to live, the winters make up for the shoddy summers, and so do the people . Wow, Venezuela must have been an experience