179 replies to this topic

[Great Plum]

kold weather, on 26 November 2011 - 10:53 , said:

I think thats more a function of the fact we've not seen one cold shot in Feb that even comes close to what we had for example in Jan 10 or in Dec 10, if we could get proper sustained cold in that month I'd suspect that places would still pretty easily hold the snowcover away from maybe the coastal strip, for example Feb 47 saw a good many places away form the coast hold the snowcover the whole month.

I would love to see a cold February... With the exception of 2005 (the year of 16 days snowfall and no more than 1 inch lying), the last time decent snow fell in Feb in the south east is 1991!

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

Yep like others, thanks for the effort put in and the clear and concise way the forecast has been presented. Interesting too how it 'veers' away from some other forecasts that predict a mild winter for most of Europe and Scandanavia and coldest being SE Europe. Lets hope your not too far off the mark.

Edited by Timmy H, 26 November 2011 - 11:36 .

[Gavin D]

Great forecast looks like another mild month to come, this Christmas could be the first widespread Green one for a few years.

One thing if February is a cold month the snow doesn't tend to last long with the day's becoming longer I remember back in 2009 overnight snow fall was all gone by mid day thanks to the sun been higher than it is in November and December.

[January Snowstorm]

Excellent forecast GP.
You were one of the few that was adamant of a mild start to Winter this year so you are half way there already.
Interesting though that you see Dcember being close to or slightly above average. I would have thought December could well be very mild just like Nov. Time will tell.

Well done, very professional

[Tellow]

Gavin D, on 26 November 2011 - 11:39 , said:

Great forecast looks like another mild month to come, this Christmas could be the first widespread Green one for a few years.

One thing if February is a cold month the snow doesn't tend to last long with the day's becoming longer I remember back in 2009 overnight snow fall was all gone by mid day thanks to the sun been higher than it is in November and December.

Isn't the sun actually stronger in November than February, not the other way round, since November is considered a month of Meteorological autumn and february winter? I've always thought that November had a similar 'sun strength' to March, October to April, and September to May, except getting weaker in Sep, Oct, Nov and getting stronger Mar, Apr, May. In other words, the start of March is sort of like the end of November, etc.

Edited by torrch, 26 November 2011 - 12:23 .

[mullender83]

torrch, on 26 November 2011 - 12:22 , said:

Isn't the sun actually stronger in November than February, not the other way round, since November is considered a month of Meteorological autumn and february winter? I've always thought that November had a similar 'sun strength' to March, October to April, and September to May, except getting weaker in Sep, Oct, Nov and getting stronger Mar, Apr, May. In other words, the start of March is sort of like the end of November, etc.

No I think he is right, the sun has gained a fair bit of strengh especialy by the second half of febuary and can get to work on any laying snow faster however ground temperatures do tend to be lower then which often helps.

Got to remember shortest day is around 21/22 of december so november would have similar solar strengh to january?

[Tellow]

mullender83, on 26 November 2011 - 13:02 , said:

No I think he is right, the sun has gained a fair bit of strengh especialy by the second half of febuary and can get to work on any laying snow faster however ground temperatures do tend to be lower then which often helps.

Got to remember shortest day is around 21/22 of december so november would have similar solar strengh to january?

Ah, that is something I overlooked so thanks for pointing that out . Maybe if we look at sunrise/sunset times for a given date in February and a given date in November for, lets say the city of London and compare?

This year for November 15th was 07:18 surise and 16:12 sunset.

February 14th 2012 will be 07:17 sunrise and 17:13 sunset.

And that's compared to December 22nd 08:04 sunrise and 15:54 sunset.

I guess you were right! Also, it would be hard to compare days in October or March as they are when the clocks change! (well you can count the day length overall)

Edited by torrch, 26 November 2011 - 13:17 .

[January Snowstorm]

Without straying off topic I think you will find November is a much darker month than January let alone Feb
Not sure why but you wont ever leave work during Nov with any daylight yet by the end of Jan it's bright up to 6pm.
For example i'm pretty sure 21st Jan has more daylight than 21st Nov ye both days are an equal length from the shortest day f the year.

[Robbie Garrett]

A Winter, on 25 November 2011 - 22:13 , said:

Yes this year has been the weirdest for weather in my lifetime to an extent it has probably been one of the worst if not the worst aswell (for me). I hope that 2012 sees a bit more normality with a proper spring (some cold in march, a mixed april, warmth in may), a proper summer (warm, storms, wet/dry), a proper autumn (mixed, wet, windy, frosty), a proper winter (mixed with mild/cold spells with snow equally dispersed in each month).

Very boring if you ask me, 2011. 2012 shall be interesting if a significant weather event falls on Olympic period, i.e heatwave, because if we have a significant heatwave that could pose many problems with London's fragile transportation networks.

[Backtrack]

Gavin D, on 26 November 2011 - 11:39 , said:

Great forecast looks like another mild month to come, this Christmas could be the first widespread Green one for a few years.

One thing if February is a cold month the snow doesn't tend to last long with the day's becoming longer I remember back in 2009 overnight snow fall was all gone by mid day thanks to the sun been higher than it is in November and December.

If the temperature and ground are cold enough you'll actually be surprised how little effect the sun will have.
Another factor: If the snow is deep enough, it will actually reflect the sun.

And I am anticipating a freezing February as per my forecast.

[Snow? norfolk n chance]

mullender83, on 26 November 2011 - 13:02 , said:

No I think he is right, the sun has gained a fair bit of strengh especialy by the second half of febuary and can get to work on any laying snow faster however ground temperatures do tend to be lower then which often helps.

Got to remember shortest day is around 21/22 of december so november would have similar solar strengh to january?

not just the strength but the height of the sun as well, meaning it shines on more surfaces, thawing more snow, November similar height to January, 26th Nov, the sun should be the same height as 16th January

hope forecast is right, and hope winter starts where it finished last year, on 10th January

Edited by snow? norfolk n chance, 26 November 2011 - 13:21 .

[mullender83]

Backtrack, on 26 November 2011 - 13:14 , said:

If the temperature and ground are cold enough you'll actually be surprised how little effect the sun will have.
Another factor: If the snow is deep enough, it will actually reflect the sun.

And I am anticipating a freezing February as per my forecast.

I like your unflinching optimism BK but I am almost slightly nervous of this winter being a complete mild damp squib.

[itsnowjoke]

mullender83, on 26 November 2011 - 13:18 , said:

I like your unflinching optimism BK but I am almost slightly nervous of this winter being a complete mild damp squib.

me too

[Tellow]

Wait, if we are comparing the day lengths for probablility of seasonal cold spells, then october is the same as february, and february is almost always colder than october. In fact, february 2011 was the first snowless february for many in the UK whilst most cities have almost never experienced snow in october.

With the exception of last winter, most snow arrives where I live in February rather than November to January.

Edited by torrch, 26 November 2011 - 13:23 .

[itsnowjoke]

we have not had much of a summer to shout about and i was rather looking forward to a repeat of last winter.

[Backtrack]

mullender83, on 26 November 2011 - 13:18 , said:

I like your unflinching optimism BK but I am almost slightly nervous of this winter being a complete mild damp squib.

I'm not phased by a mild December.
I've anticipated that too, my forecast paints the picture nicely, and it was issued in October

It's good to see that GP is also anticipating a cold Feb, but I am going for a colder than average January, I think the pattern change will come in just before the new year.

[itsnowjoke]

i have recently had my stop tap moved from outside to inside as last winter it froze causing us to have a bust on the 26th dec, so you cant make it up really can you, maybe i should of just left it outside and then we would of had a severe winter.

[Robbie Garrett]

Considering the pattern at the moment, September - December will come above average. January - April will either be average or below average. If it keeps that trend, Summer could be great for once.

[January Snowstorm]

So what that tells us so Gavin D is that the mornings are darker in Jan and the evening brighter, than similar dates in Nov

[Gavin P]

Gavin D, on 26 November 2011 - 11:39 , said:

One thing if February is a cold month the snow doesn't tend to last long with the day's becoming longer I remember back in 2009 overnight snow fall was all gone by mid day thanks to the sun been higher than it is in November and December.

February can be outrageously cold - Colder than anything possible in December. Coldest December CET on record is -.0.8, coldest February on CET record is -1.9 Its just that we've not had much deep cold in February for a long, long time, so people have tended to become blase about what February can be like.

Edited by Gavin P, 26 November 2011 - 14:16 .