Winter Forecast - 2011/2012

[J10]

I doubt there will be a weather forecast for this winter in the UK anywhere with as much detail and reasoning to back it up.

Even it does go wrong, if will be much easier to see which elements didn't turn out as expected.

[lorenzo]

Great work- good to see the presentation broken down into the key elements. Good reading.

Some fine reanalysis work in there - interesting to see the MJO analogues matching so closely with this years pattern.

Completely agree with what others have said in regards to SSW. Will be eyes down for Chionos thread and that Ozone build up.

I hope this leads some more folk into the technical discussion thread too - Well done.

[Alex]

2005 was pathetic in Essex compared to the last two years, the problem with February is that the sun is stronger so even when the daytime temp was 4/5c, the snow that had fallen overnight had melted by midday.

However I think If things fall into place then we will be looking at a colder spell at the beginning rather than the end of february, hope not as I get married at beginning and ppl will be travelling across the country.

[leicsnow]

From what I can remember the snow in late Feb 2005 continued into early March in the East Midlands.

[phil nw.]

Good explanation Stewart of the key elements in your forecast.

Well presented too.

As others have said a Strato warming is important otherwise i would lean towards a slightly milder than average Winter with only transitory cold snaps.

[Downburst]

In the now generation and that manifests itself as, I want snow and I want it now on a weather forum site such as this, a forecast that doesn’t deliver snow within a week is worthless. So poor is the teaching on basic scientific approaches to problem analysis and experimentation to prove an argument, even here where each and every one has the seed of ability purely by bothering to take an interest in the physics of weather and the phenomena and challenge of its chaotic behaviour and unpredictability, this forecast is already a failure before the fruits it promises germinate, whether that friut is cold or normal or warm, and it is biased to cold, and that in itslef makes me worry.

If only the hot air it generated in comment warmed the Arctic then it would self-prophesise

p.s. I no longer read the model thread since I am neither excitable enough nor mad enough to take part in it. If something is not done to set reasonable expectations as to what one might expect in a British Isles winter then this site will surely fall off a cliff any time in the next year or two if it doesn’t deliver snow in an instant. There are experienced members for some reason that I have yet to understand determined to make this happen by not taking the time to look at the bigger picture, like 30 to 40 years of a picture AKA climate and egging on waffle. Please stop it and put time into the models. I might even do it myself by commenting on FI every 6 hours and making predictions for 2 months ahead, but then again maybe not.

[Don]

Thanks Stewart/Netweather and look forward to the full version tomorrow. It was pretty much what I was expecting from the forecast and hopefully things will fall nicely into place for the second half of winter! My main concern for the forecast is also the conflicting model outlooks. However, if we look for example at the CFS, it had been predicting a colder than average November until at least mid October and had been consistent with this too. Also, if I remember correctly, this time last year it was predicting that the colder than average conditions would persist throughout the whole of winter going against Stewart's 2010/11 winter forecast. So, whilst the models certainly cannot be ignored, we do need to bear in mind that they can backtrack at the last minute.

Edited November 26, 2011 by Don

[Downburst]

Thanks Stewart/Netweather and look forward to the full version tomorrow. It was pretty much what I was expecting from the forecast and hopefully things will fall nicely into place for the second half of winter! My main concern for the forecast is also the conflicting model outlooks. However, if we look for example at the CFS, it had been predicting a colder than average November until at least mid October and had been consistent with this too. Also, if I remember correctly, this time last year it was predicting that the colder than average conditions would persist throughout the whole of winter going against Stewart's 2010/11 winter forecast. So, whilst the models certainly cannot be ignored, we do need to bear in mind that they can backtrack at the last minute.

Just to add if I may Of course the models are based on fact, and by fact lets qualify that word fact; as much fact as can be observed, as it presents itself when they are run, there are people working on them teams of well paid people with qualifications and all that type of thing . This whole site is so hard on the models re: bin it, I don't like that etc. etc., GP has presented a brilliant forecast in the sense that it is well reasoned. But it is based on models as a foundation, please!.

[syed2878]

good forecast guys keep up the good work. Looking forward to later on to c the full forecast.

[Iceberg]

A very good, detailed and thankfully free forecast(Thanks to NETW for this).

As to whether it will be accurate or not, I am not fit to say. I can't find any glaring flaws in it, not that I would expect to given Stewart's skill.

Thanks and well done

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2005 was pathetic in Essex compared to the last two years, the problem with February is that the sun is stronger so even when the daytime temp was 4/5c, the snow that had fallen overnight had melted by midday.

However I think If things fall into place then we will be looking at a colder spell at the beginning rather than the end of february, hope not as I get married at beginning and ppl will be travelling across the country.

Thats the problem with February, same happened here, all gone by midday, if it was 1Dec- mid Jan, would have been no thaws

[Paul]

GP has presented a brilliant forecast in the sense that it is well reasoned. But it is based on models as a foundation, please!.

Errm, did you actually look at the forecast? If you had you would surely have noticed that it's actually contradicting a number of the models & certainly isn't based on them,..

[kold weather]

Thats the problem with February, same happened here, all gone by midday, if it was 1Dec- mid Jan, would have been no thaws

I think thats more a function of the fact we've not seen one cold shot in Feb that even comes close to what we had for example in Jan 10 or in Dec 10, if we could get proper sustained cold in that month I'd suspect that places would still pretty easily hold the snowcover away from maybe the coastal strip, for example Feb 47 saw a good many places away form the coast hold the snowcover the whole month.

[Polar Maritime]

Very good detailed forcast.

I thought it was Bear Grills at first glance

[shedhead]

Great presentation by GP and something of a rubber stamping of my expected slow burner. The main problem here is the timing of the change. My thoughts are mid Jan, but I fear later rather than sooner, which

may end up meaning we only have one month of proper cold. Of course Feb can really deliver, but the longer days and stronger sun can have quite an impact on the potential for very low temps, especially during

the 2nd half of the month. Conversely though the potential is there for some heavy battleground snowfalls, so plenty to look forward too and no real need to let the current or expected December pattern

get us down.

Edited November 26, 2011 by shedhead

[Great Plum]

I think thats more a function of the fact we've not seen one cold shot in Feb that even comes close to what we had for example in Jan 10 or in Dec 10, if we could get proper sustained cold in that month I'd suspect that places would still pretty easily hold the snowcover away from maybe the coastal strip, for example Feb 47 saw a good many places away form the coast hold the snowcover the whole month.

I would love to see a cold February... With the exception of 2005 (the year of 16 days snowfall and no more than 1 inch lying), the last time decent snow fell in Feb in the south east is 1991!

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

Yep like others, thanks for the effort put in and the clear and concise way the forecast has been presented. Interesting too how it 'veers' away from some other forecasts that predict a mild winter for most of Europe and Scandanavia and coldest being SE Europe. Lets hope your not too far off the mark.

Edited November 26, 2011 by Timmy H

[Summer Sun]

Great forecast looks like another mild month to come, this Christmas could be the first widespread Green one for a few years.

One thing if February is a cold month the snow doesn't tend to last long with the day's becoming longer I remember back in 2009 overnight snow fall was all gone by mid day thanks to the sun been higher than it is in November and December.

[January Snowstorm]

Excellent forecast GP.

You were one of the few that was adamant of a mild start to Winter this year so you are half way there already.

Interesting though that you see Dcember being close to or slightly above average. I would have thought December could well be very mild just like Nov. Time will tell.

Well done, very professional

[leicsnow]

Great forecast looks like another mild month to come, this Christmas could be the first widespread Green one for a few years.

One thing if February is a cold month the snow doesn't tend to last long with the day's becoming longer I remember back in 2009 overnight snow fall was all gone by mid day thanks to the sun been higher than it is in November and December.

Isn't the sun actually stronger in November than February, not the other way round, since November is considered a month of Meteorological autumn and february winter? I've always thought that November had a similar 'sun strength' to March, October to April, and September to May, except getting weaker in Sep, Oct, Nov and getting stronger Mar, Apr, May. In other words, the start of March is sort of like the end of November, etc.

Edited November 26, 2011 by torrch

[Nights King]

Isn't the sun actually stronger in November than February, not the other way round, since November is considered a month of Meteorological autumn and february winter? I've always thought that November had a similar 'sun strength' to March, October to April, and September to May, except getting weaker in Sep, Oct, Nov and getting stronger Mar, Apr, May. In other words, the start of March is sort of like the end of November, etc.

No I think he is right, the sun has gained a fair bit of strengh especialy by the second half of febuary and can get to work on any laying snow faster however ground temperatures do tend to be lower then which often helps.

Got to remember shortest day is around 21/22 of december so november would have similar solar strengh to january?

[leicsnow]

No I think he is right, the sun has gained a fair bit of strengh especialy by the second half of febuary and can get to work on any laying snow faster however ground temperatures do tend to be lower then which often helps.

Got to remember shortest day is around 21/22 of december so november would have similar solar strengh to january?

Ah, that is something I overlooked so thanks for pointing that out . Maybe if we look at sunrise/sunset times for a given date in February and a given date in November for, lets say the city of London and compare?

This year for November 15th was 07:18 surise and 16:12 sunset.

February 14th 2012 will be 07:17 sunrise and 17:13 sunset.

And that's compared to December 22nd 08:04 sunrise and 15:54 sunset.

I guess you were right! Also, it would be hard to compare days in October or March as they are when the clocks change! (well you can count the day length overall)

Edited November 26, 2011 by torrch

[January Snowstorm]

Without straying off topic I think you will find November is a much darker month than January let alone Feb

Not sure why but you wont ever leave work during Nov with any daylight yet by the end of Jan it's bright up to 6pm.

For example i'm pretty sure 21st Jan has more daylight than 21st Nov ye both days are an equal length from the shortest day f the year.

[Robbie Garrett]

Yes this year has been the weirdest for weather in my lifetime to an extent it has probably been one of the worst if not the worst aswell (for me). I hope that 2012 sees a bit more normality with a proper spring (some cold in march, a mixed april, warmth in may), a proper summer (warm, storms, wet/dry), a proper autumn (mixed, wet, windy, frosty), a proper winter (mixed with mild/cold spells with snow equally dispersed in each month).

Very boring if you ask me, 2011. 2012 shall be interesting if a significant weather event falls on Olympic period, i.e heatwave, because if we have a significant heatwave that could pose many problems with London's fragile transportation networks.

[Backtrack]

Great forecast looks like another mild month to come, this Christmas could be the first widespread Green one for a few years.

One thing if February is a cold month the snow doesn't tend to last long with the day's becoming longer I remember back in 2009 overnight snow fall was all gone by mid day thanks to the sun been higher than it is in November and December.

If the temperature and ground are cold enough you'll actually be surprised how little effect the sun will have.

Another factor: If the snow is deep enough, it will actually reflect the sun.

And I am anticipating a freezing February as per my forecast.