179 replies to this topic

[Paul]

The summary 2011/12 winter forecast is now online - put together by Stewart Rampling & entitled 'A Winter of Two Halves'. View it here:

http://www.netweathe...mary-2011;sess=

The full, detailed version will be available tomorrow..

[A Scottish Winter's Tale]

Mildest at start; coldest at end.

Sounds good and almost a reverse of last winter.

Good forecast GP!

I'm happy to deal with little potential for cold this December as long as we get something further down the line and Febuary sounds quite tasty.

We now need to wait and see...

[Downburst]

Well done GP and team, I really appreciate you researching for this forecast and presenting it like this. Absolutley top class this and better than any other offering on the net. I'm crossing my fingers that it works out as predicted. If it doesn't it will not make it any less worthwhile and appreciated. Thanks again!

[johnholmes]

Just watched that-Stewart/Paul and it was a very well thought out and presented forecast. I liked the idea of you on the left, clear sound and diction with a nice mix of charts and text. Again I liked your clear explanation of the charts and text.

[bluearmy]

expectation of an SSW in jan to promote a neg AO. We have seen in winters past how this can have an immediate positive impact in driving a plunge of cold into our latitudes but then again, we have also seen how the remnants of p/v can be placed in such a way to keep the cold to our east over the longer term. Whilst I think the forecast is well reasoned, I think the risk that it may be a 'close but no cigar' return re a cold feb is quite high.

good work though Stewart

[A Scottish Winter's Tale]

I also think it's a pretty unique forecast aswell and sensible with many interesting methods. Most other forecasts aren't looking at February for a colder potential. The likes of weather logistics and mark vogan going for a colder end to December and start to January, many other forecasts look at January as potentiall being the month of the winter as said by RJS. Personally, I feel that the first cold of the winter would be towards the end of December and I feel that January would see a large increase in the potential for cold and snow (although February would also fit under that category).

[Robbie Garrett]

A Winter, on 25 November 2011 - 21:40 , said:

I also think it's a pretty unique forecast aswell and sensible with many interesting methods. Most other forecasts aren't looking at February for a colder potential. The likes of weather logistics and mark vogan going for a colder end to December and start to January, many other forecasts look at January as potentiall being the month of the winter as said by RJS. Personally, I feel that the first cold of the winter would be towards the end of December and I feel that January would see a large increase in the potential for cold and snow (although February would also fit under that category).

I was under the general assumption that last year would be repeated, I think the fact that we had no Summer and that Autumn was Summer like (SOUTHERLY/SOUTH EASTERLY) winds, that this has given Winter 2011/12 a later start.

From what I recall, weather in the UK seems to fall in the following pattern. Wet/Windy - Hot/Mild - Wet/Windy - Hot/Mild or LP - HP - LP - HP throughout the year, and from what people have said the weather balances itself out. But because there's been a lack of anything all year, this December will probably go down as one of the worst storm seasons in History and those GFS patterns are throwing out some nice LP systems for once, rather than Scotland gets it all!

If I am honest though, if this December can really fire up then JFM or FMA may be interesting for Wintery weather, if any. Then MAM, AMJ+ could be the start of some decent spring/summery weather. The weather this year has been extremely weird, saying that a few years now. Hopefully a return to normality and more seasonal.

[A Scottish Winter's Tale]

Robbie Garrett, on 25 November 2011 - 21:52 , said:

I was under the general assumption that last year would be repeated, I think the fact that we had no Summer and that Autumn was Summer like (SOUTHERLY/SOUTH EASTERLY) winds, that this has given Winter 2011/12 a later start.

From what I recall, weather in the UK seems to fall in the following pattern. Wet/Windy - Hot/Mild - Wet/Windy - Hot/Mild or LP - HP - LP - HP throughout the year, and from what people have said the weather balances itself out. But because there's been a lack of anything all year, this December will probably go down as one of the worst storm seasons in History and those GFS patterns are throwing out some nice LP systems for once, rather than Scotland gets it all!

If I am honest though, if this December can really fire up then JFM or FMA may be interesting for Wintery weather, if any. Then MAM, AMJ+ could be the start of some decent spring/summery weather. The weather this year has been extremely weird, saying that a few years now. Hopefully a return to normality and more seasonal.

Yes this year has been the weirdest for weather in my lifetime to an extent it has probably been one of the worst if not the worst aswell (for me). I hope that 2012 sees a bit more normality with a proper spring (some cold in march, a mixed april, warmth in may), a proper summer (warm, storms, wet/dry), a proper autumn (mixed, wet, windy, frosty), a proper winter (mixed with mild/cold spells with snow equally dispersed in each month).

[chionomaniac]

I think this preliminary forecast is exactly as I expected and I agree with ( as per my sig over the last few weeks). My main concern with this forecast ( and therefore my own) is that if a SSW does not occur in January will we still see a colder end to winter? Probably is my answer but not as cold as if we see a SSW!

[Gavin P]

Really interesting forecast. Thanks very much.

I wonder if Stewert has time to explain why he thinks the long range modelling (well CFS and ECM) is at such odds with what the analogues and teleconnections are suggesting should happen this winter?

Edited by Gavin P, 25 November 2011 - 22:42 .

[summer blizzard]

Well done and a very good forecast.

[kold weather]

I suspect Gavin they simply don't see that SSW which has been much discussed, so thats just leaving us in our current default pattern which is a number of variations of westerly.

I think the forecast is a very good one overall, but it heavily hinges on that warming in the stratosphere doing the job...if it doesn't then the cold IMO is going to struggle to establish, though like Chino said.

Also if we are to get a focus from the east, I think a Feb 2005 would be a very likely result because I suspect Europe is going to join us in a mild December...and snowless by in large other than further north in Scandinavia, and if you remember that far back the main reason why it didn't give more was Europe was pretty much way above average in every aspect (SST's, soil temps, etc) That being said I'd enjoy to be wrong in my cycnical attitude!

Hopefully the SSW does the job!!

[Paul]

Gavin P, on 25 November 2011 - 22:42 , said:

Really interesting forecast. Thanks very much.

I wonder if Stewert has time to explain why he thinks the long range modelling (well CFS and ECM) is at such odds with what the analogues and teleconnections are suggesting should happen this winter?

He goes into more detail about this in the full video which I've literally just finished editing and will have online tomorrow

[Gavin P]

kold weather, on 25 November 2011 - 22:50 , said:

I suspect Gavin they simply don't see that SSW which has been much discussed, so thats just leaving us in our current default pattern which is a number of variations of westerly.

Yeah, that might be it. But its strange though, because for the 2009/2010 winter CFS was on to that synoptic pattern from around September. And again for 2010/2011.

I've been quite undecided about this winter myself, because all of things I look at (nothing like as in depth as what GP does of course) Does suggest this winter should be colder than average, but the models refuse to come round to the idea, lol.

To be fair both the Beijing and IOD models are suggesting a blocked/colder winter, so not all the modeling is with CFS.

Paul, on 25 November 2011 - 22:51 , said:

He goes into more detail about this in the full video which I've literally just finished editing and will have online tomorrow

Thanks Paul. Look forward to seeing it.

Edited by Gavin P, 25 November 2011 - 22:57 .

[damianslaw]

A good forecast and you can clearly see how it ties in with the earlier thoughts given at the end of last month - i.e. a strong ridge developing over scandi as the winter wears on. Obviously the tricky bit as explained is the timing of events - the ridge may take until feb to develop or it could happen in early-mid Jan which could mean a preety cold Jan and Feb.rather than just feb - supporting other forecasts whom are suggesting the core of the cold this winter will be in january. Similiar analogue years to what we have this winter in terms of ENSO include 84/85 and 55/56 which saw mild weather in december but with signficant cold weather in either Jan and/or Feb - both months in the case of 85 and just feb in the case of 56 - exceptional cold mind you!

I'll be happy if we see the blocking start earlier rather than later and as long as we get a couple shots of arctic maritime air before the new year - the thought of waiting until feb for any decent cold isn't really doing it for me it has to be said.. in my book the best time for cold snowy weather is from the 18th dec - the run up to christmas and then during christmas week it adds to the festive feel - the last two years have been superb in this respect but unfortunately this year it looks like we will have to be much more patient.

[Backtrack]

Paul, on 25 November 2011 - 22:51 , said:

He goes into more detail about this in the full video which I've literally just finished editing and will have online tomorrow

Talk about working overtime Paul. It's 11pm!

A great summary, looking forward to tomorrow

[Mark 'Ox' Neal]

Great presentation, well presented and also the views on the winter seem reasonable, now or we need is this to verify lol. Good work Netweather once again!

[Andy163]

Excellently explained and presented By far the most professional forecast i've seen yet... If only the Met Office had the courage to deliver a forecast such as yourselves.

Let's hope the Stratosphere plays ball!

Edited by Andy163, 25 November 2011 - 23:05 .

[kold weather]

Yep 84-85 actuaslly is quite a good winter to use overall, the La Nina state was a good one. 54-55 is another good one, indeed that maybe the best one as it happened towards the back end of the last +ve AMO spell before this one.

However as I said before to get a 2nd half as cold as either we MUST have a warming event, without it the CFS is going to be spot on IMO with its pattern. The fact the La Nina should stay either weak or on the very low end of moderate is a bonus and will help matters out if we do get a decent warming bout.

[CreweCold]

From the presentation, I think one thing is clear and that is there is the *potential* for a very very snowy end to the winter......something we haven't seen for a good few years.

Great presentation by the way Stewart, very concise and it exudes professionalism.