Alps Snow And Weather Conditions 2011-2012

[J10]

So here we are at last with the 2011-2012 Alpine (and Pyrenean) Discussion thread.

As ever put your destinations here, and make as much contribution as possible. For a starting point, please give your thoughts for the forthcoming season and any webcams, which can be added for easy reference,

Regular forecasts will follow with a detailed look ahead this weekend.

It has been a slow start to the season across the Alps,but we all know that things can change readily,

[95 Degrees]

http://www.viewsurf.com/liste-tag-neige.html

These are useful for both the Alps and the Pyreenes.

[J10]

Good webcams there, pity about the lack of snow at the moment, My first blog of the season tomorrow will discuss that in a bit more detail.

[Nights King]

going for somewhere different this year mainly due to the Euro exchange rates ect.

borrovets bulgaria

[johnholmes]

The Jungfrau Ski Region will start the new snowsport season on the weekend of 19/20 November 2011.

If snow conditions allow, the first winter- sport facilities will then be in operation.

Just about sums up the picture for most resorts other than the few highest level ones I suspect.

In this area there is no snow at all below about 8000ft, perhaps a touch higher which is really the summer level. That after several quite heavy falls quite early in the autumn.

[J10]

The first blog of the winter has been posted here

http://forum.netweat...-12-look-ahead/

This has largely been discussing the synoptics of this year compared to previous years. I will also be posting the first forecast during the week as well.

[J10]

http://forum.netweat...e-15th-november is the first Alps forecast for the 11-12 season.

[SuttonStorm]

Hi - the link you posted for the 1st forecast doesn't seem to be working?

Am getting a bit anxious (stupidly I know!) about the lack of snow in the Alps. Off to Courchevel on 18th December so masses of time, but the Euro high seems really stubborn. Thankfully there are a few hints that it will get a little more unsettled next week so fingers crossed.

BTW I know people who are out skiing on the Kaprun (Austria) glacier right now and the conditions are wonderful! 8=)

SS

[JASON221]

Agree with above

[chrisbooth0070]

Same here - going to Mayrhofen on 15th December for 2 weeks.

The way things are going, the Hintertux could be a little bit busy!

[J10]

is the correct link, only 2 days out of date.

Hi - the link you posted for the 1st forecast doesn't seem to be working?

Am getting a bit anxious (stupidly I know!) about the lack of snow in the Alps. Off to Courchevel on 18th December so masses of time, but the Euro high seems really stubborn. Thankfully there are a few hints that it will get a little more unsettled next week so fingers crossed.

BTW I know people who are out skiing on the Kaprun (Austria) glacier right now and the conditions are wonderful! 8=)

SS

In terms of weather I can well imagine some warm sunshine for the Alps, not helpful for snow build up though.

[johnholmes]

http://www.lauberhorn.ch/en/medien/Livecam

I suspect the link above is something that is very similar through much of the Alps below 8000ft.

The first picture shows the finish area for the Lauberhorn Downhill, Slalom and Combined. On the left is the media stand, on the right work under way on one of the specator stands at the finish.

The Wengen forecast, taken from the GFS output, suggests there MIGHT be snow about for next Friday.

Time will tell.

I've skied there for the past 23 years and on only one year, 1990, was there no snow. A few seasons its not been great but most times its been above average, some excellent.

So fingers crossed for eveyone going to the Alps from Christmas onwards.

[Isolated Frost]

.

EDIT: mistake

Edited November 18, 2011 by Isolated Frost

[J10]

Lick to latest Ski Blog for the winter

[Stamford82]

Thanks for the updates guys.

I'm off to Morzine in Port Du Soleil on Xmas eve and it's not looking great atm

[J10]

Thanks for the updates guys.

I'm off to Morzine in Port Du Soleil on Xmas eve and it's not looking great atm

I have been there and snow can be a problem, however higher up in Avoriaz, snow is much more likely, however the webcams even there are green atm.

[jonnybradley]

It's looking like a very snowless alps for the foreseeable. I check the http://www.weather-forecast.com/ regular and compare this with real world outcome and would say they general give an accurate mountain forecast. I have attached two jpegs of there forecast from 19/11/11 18:00 just to illustrate how crazy the models are at the moment (sorry if this isn't allowed).

Notice the blip Fri 25th through Saturday 26th (Nov) surly this isn't realistic. That didn't appear on the 06:00 and Thurs 18:00 had this period different again, dry and high Freeze levels and Lower light snow respectively. The models are just bouncing all sorts of ideas around giving us false hope! (in the long range)

I am certainly no expert!!! But can't see any thing other than the same continuing for the next 2 weeks, that euro block isn't going anywhere for a while.

Sorry to be so neg, lets just hope I am proved wrong. Heading to Cham 17th Dec. Think am going to make enquirers about bike hire

Edit: files named in wrong order, look at the 2nd (right most) first for date order

Edited November 20, 2011 by jonnybradley

[jonnybradley]

In response to my own ranting last night http://www.weather-fore/cast.com has turned up the following this morn. Are they on to something....

[Harve]

http://actualite.lachainemeteo.com/actualite-meteo/2011-11-20-10h58/previsions-saisonnieres---apercu-de-l-hiver-actualise-14514.php

I believe this is the French equivalent to the MetOffice and not just some commercial weather site. It seems to forecast the exact opposite of what GP and others seem to be hinting. December "increasingly colder and disturbed"...

[SuttonStorm]

http://actualite.lac...alise-14514.php

I believe this is the French equivalent to the MetOffice and not just some commercial weather site. It seems to forecast the exact opposite of what GP and others seem to be hinting. December "increasingly colder and disturbed"...

Décembre : progressivement plus froid et perturbé

Temps plus agité avec le retour des perturbations océaniques, en alternance avec des journées froides, pouvant entraîner des chutes de neige épisodiques en plaine. A l'heure actuelle, l'anomalie de température envisagée semble tout de même moins marquée que l'année dernière à la même époque. Une période particulièrement froide est envisagée pour Noël. La neige devrait être au rendez-vous dans les stations pour les sports d'hiver des vacances de Noël.

Now that is something quite detailed and specific - will keep a close eye on that (I especially like the line about Noel as I will be there then! :-) )

Thanks for the link

SS

Edit - I will PM Nick Sussex to see how much credence they can be given

Edited November 20, 2011 by SuttonStorm

[J10]

This is a listing all recent charts for next Friday, as you can see some disagreement as to how far the cold air plunges.

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../h850t850eu.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../h850t850eu.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../h850t850eu.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../h850t850eu.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../h850t850eu.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../h850t850eu.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../h850t850eu.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../h850t850eu.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../h850t850eu.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../h850t850eu.png

This explains why some forecast from Snow Forecasts are saying snow and others aren't. However the disappointing this is this is only a transient period of cold weather anyway.

[SuttonStorm]

I feel it is now time for some blind optimism in the hope that if sufficient people think positively, the pesky eurotrash high will bugger off westwards towards the Azores where it belongs, and allows it's good cousins from the family Low Pressure to visit the Alps for a while, accompanied by their best friend E/NE wind.

All joking aside, I do feel a little more confident tonight (albeit from a very low starting point) that the turn of the month will see an improving picture over the mountains - the ensembles this evening (GFS) show the majority with a significant pressure fall (Bern) come 1st Dec with associated fall in 850s and 2m temps.

Julian - please give us some more straws to clutch!

SS

[jonnybradley]

I feel it is now time for some blind optimism in the hope that if sufficient people think positively, the pesky eurotrash high will bugger off westwards towards the Azores where it belongs, and allows it's good cousins from the family Low Pressure to visit the Alps for a while, accompanied by their best friend E/NE wind.

I believe this was this theory has been tried this year already, Feb-Apr. Finally delivering a fresh dumping of snow to the alps (French resorts anywho) in June?

The picture for December is still uncertain. As I said before the models really can't make there minds up at the mo. Something near average would be a blessing at this point. But I agree things are looking desperate at the mo.

Anybody know any wise old mountain men???

Keep the faith

[J10]

I have done a few blogs now and would like some feedback as to them, and any potential improvements.

Generally I am quite happy about the Synoptic part, but when it comes to the Alps part I am uncertain as to the clarity of the info.

Another way of doing it would be.

850Hpa Temps			 West Alps	 East Alps	  
Day 1				   3 to 4	 4 to 5
Day 2				   2 to 4	 3 to 5
Day 3				  -1 to 1	 2 to 3
Day 4				   5 to 6	 7 to 8
Day 5				   2 to 3	 2 to 5
Day 6				   1 to 2	 4 to 5
Day 7				   2 to 3	 4 to 5

Perhaps also having the freezing level in a similar format above.

And then going into more detail on the actual weather on the ground on the daily summary.

e.g.

Day 1 - High pressure continuing to dominate, so mostly dry and settled.

Day 2 - Low Pressure pushing in, with snow info France early in the day, spreading SE and reaching Austria and Switzerland by the early evening. Snow likely above 1500m initially and this dropping to around 1000m on the back edge of the front, snow amounts possibly reaching 15cm.

Thoughts please

[SuttonStorm]

Hi Julian - firstly I would like to thank you for the input you have had on this site.

I personally think the freezing level is a more useful indicator than the 850Hpa temp, as that gives me a good reference to start from.

I would certainly appreciate the increased detail from region to region showing the progression of weather (pretty much as you have given above).

Also, a general summary of the models and what they are showing over a longer period (and your thoughts on how much credence they can be given with their output) would be very useful (a bit like Gibby does but more longer range?) I am trying to learn and look at the broader pattern and how things are progressing at the moment with the season approaching and would love some guidance on the synoptic patterns to look for etc.

Hope this isn't too much!

SS