Corbyn - Winter Warning Of Exceptional Uk Cold And Snow

[Essan]

Wow, he does Earthquake forecasts as well !!!!!!

And volcanic eruptions. Whenever he says an eruption is likely, somewhere in the world a volcano erupts. Every single time!

[Coast]

Funny you don't seem to be going as much out of your way for other people's forecasts?

Perhaps you have a vendetta?

No, I'm just keen that if there are going to be comparisons drawn, they are fair and representative to the people involved. This particular thread (and hence the forecasts in it) is easy to keep pace with as Weatheraction do give quite a lot of regular updates and have a strong online presence, which means it's relatively straight forward to critique against the actual + they are very specific about dates and scales of weather.

I have looked at some of the other winter forecasts ( http://forum.netweat...orecast-thread/ ) but they would take a little longer to compare to actual and are not updated or 'advertised' as strongly or regularly. I am a simple soul, who just likes to see what is being touted and what actually turns out - I'm also supposed to be keeping down a full time job!!!!! :lol:

To avoid any confusion, I'd be delighted for someone to give lrf's, including Winter forecasts etc, that proved correct time and time again and we could rely on them for guidance as required. I haven't yet found such a guru, although many who believe they can do this, have convinced themselves. My search continues.......

[chionomaniac]

Funny you don't seem to be going as much out of your way for other people's forecasts?

Perhaps you have a vendetta?

For £15 a month, I hope that if I gave out incorrect forecasts then you would come to my defence as well.

In fact, I would be more than happy to charge a tenner. I could write Febs forecast in probably an hour on 31st Jan and if I got enough people to buy it I would be quids in.

And I have no vendetta - just a passion.

[Coast]

I wonder how many of his white xmas bets came off this year.

[jtay]

The forecast of more storms in the next three days (again, the emphasis is clearly more for England than Scotland) has been published elsewhere and is similar in its wording:

http://www.deadlinen...-meteorologist/

Hello Coast,

Please see PC's update below from http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=412&c=5

"Latest information on 10 Jan 02:00Gmt

· MetO maps show windy disturbances from interesting sub-low type developments in Scotland & N England for 11/12 Jan – see http://bit.ly/4tFBKO

· We expect these or others just down the line will be considerably beefed up in reality although maybe not tracking as far south as we expected in the detailed long range forecast (which was of 80% confidence).

· However beware standard forecasts can be very wrong even one day ahead.

· Solar monitoring websites show that fast solar wind from a Coronal Hole will hit earth around 13-14th http://bit.ly/yM7s6L .

· TV forecasts 9 Jan were clear about a cold plunge for the whole of UK & Ire from 13/14th in the tail of these lows - as in WeatherAction.com forecast issued mid Dec (4 weeks ahead) to the day but contradicting what MO said 5 or 6 days ahead - see Craig M's report 7Jan of MetO Outlook update of 6 Jan on other thread: - http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=410&c=5

Watch this space!"

So...

Point 1 - There's your storm.

Point 2 - Closest thing to a climb down we're going to get.

Point 3 - Here's hoping.

Point 4 - que?

Point 5 - If in doubt, bash the Meto.

Cue a load of chucklesome hero worshipping and some Netweather bashing in the article comments.

If WeatherAction was a free service we could leave it be, but charging for utter tosh is completely disingenuous. Where's that little bald bloke from the One Show when you need him.

[johnholmes]

This was the first time I ever heard of Piers Corbyn, it was when he was interviewed by ITN News back in November 1994. He predicted a white Christmas for that year...he was wrong.

they say its best to start out as you mean to carry on!

[IanM]

Can we please make sure that any comments or discussion keep purely to the forecasts and their content please, I'm not saying that anyone has crossed a line, but it is easy to get carried away and stray into personal comments or unneeded, overly harsh criticism.

Especially with the latest press releases pointing to the damaging storm period over the next couple of days, I don't want to lose the chance to see what unfolds and what the general consensus of the forecasts accuracy and relevance is.

thanks

[La Bise]

This thread should really be in a "Science-Fiction" category...

[Coast]

OK, the start of the forecast extremely windy period for England and the snow/hail for Scotland. Here is the current windspeed maximums and their locations at just gone 0800hrs:

Netweather's own list

XC Weathers live map:

Here is a combined actual snow and wind observation map from http://www.snow-fore...ynamic/scotland I've highlighted the place that currently shows snow:

[Coast]

Warning of gales for tomorrow from the Met O for Central Scotland, Tayside & Fife. SW Scotland, Lothian Borders, North West and North East England, Yorkshire and Humber:

Yellow Warning of Wind12 Jan 2012, 00:00

Valid From: 12 Jan 2012, 00:00

Valid To: 12 Jan 2012, 08:00

Issued at - 11 Jan 2012, 10:33

Valid from - 12 Jan 2012, 00:00

Valid to - 12 Jan 2012, 08:00

Westerly gales and locally severe gales are likely to affect some southeastern parts of Scotland and northern England during Wednesday night. Gusts of 70 mph are possible and the public should be aware of the risk of disruption to travel.

http://www.metoffice...ings.html?day=2

From NW's own NMM model:

Certainly forecast charts above show it to be windy in the North Sea and coastal areas bordering it. Is it going to be as bad, or worse than last week?

[Essan]

Piers seems pretty confident he's right

http://twitpic.com/85w6nr

Although he appears to be verifying his forecast on the basis of misinterpretation of an out of date synoptic forecast chart, rather than on actual events

His 'torpedo low' clearly tracks eastwards to the north of Scotland

Edited January 11, 2012 by Essan

[Coast]

Although he appears to be verifying his forecast on the basis of misinterpretation of an out of date synoptic forecast chart, rather than on actual events

His 'torpedo low' clearly tracks eastwards to the north of Scotland

Here's that specific information taken out of all the other stuff:

The actual verification will of course be after the time period i.e. after Friday. People will probably have to decide if this particular part of the Winter Forecasts meets certain criteria. I summarise some possibilities as:

1) Do we have disruptive, if not worse gales (than those of last week) in England and Scotland during the 11th - 13th?

http://www.thescotti...ng-our-way.html refers and stated:

Piers said the first storm will hit this week. He added: "The weather will be just as disruptive, if not worse, between January 11 and 13 as it was during the first week of the month. England will probably be more affected than Scotland with winds of over 80mph in parts.

2) What will be/is/was the maximum windspeed?

3) What will be/is/was the location of the severest winds?

[Coast]

http://twitpic.com/85w6nr

Although he appears to be verifying his forecast on the basis of misinterpretation of an out of date synoptic forecast chart

Latest Fax charts:

I'm not a fan of the term 'torpedo low' and when I looked it up, it only Googles back to Weatheraction!

So will this be a hit or miss in members views?

[Essan]

I'm struggling to see a low - torpedo or otherwise - cross Britain this week!

[chionomaniac]

May get some torpedo drizzle out of that.

[Coast]

Alrighty, update on today's windspeeds so far:

[Coast]

Gales of up to 70mph are predicted to batter parts of Scotland this week. The Met Office has issued an amber weather warning for central and south eastern Scotland on Thursday.

Stirlingshire, Lothians and the Borders are expected to be worst affected by gusts of up to 70mph, which are expected to start in the early hours of Thursday. The Met Office has warned that "the public should be aware of the risk of disruption to travel" because of the latest bout of stormy weather to hit Scotland recently. In recent weeks two spells of severe weather hit Scotland, forcing the closure of businesses and schools, as well as blocking many roads with debris and fallen trees.

http://news.stv.tv/scotland/east-central/293225-70mph-gales-to-batter-scotland/

[Coast]

Well like you guys, I don't know what justifies the term 'torpedo low', but for the sake of a fair comparison, I'm looking at the results of the forecast more than what leads Piers to think is the cause of it. Currently GFS has this little lot overnight:

(note this is helical activity, not straight line windspeeds which is what I think is being quoted?)

70 knot gusts (approx 60 mph) off Scotland's NE coast?

Again, plenty of forecast activity in the North Sea:

Does this qualify the Weatheraction forecast for the three day time period??? - I just don't know yet, but today for me is a miss so far.

[Coast]

So, is he just using the GFS then?

Not as I am given to believe. There is a whole load of solar driven stuff that never really gets fully explained enough for my simple brain and reference to 'conventional meteorological charts' coming around to his way of thinking. TBH, that's why I'm only looking at results, as I don't know how the forecasts are actually achieved, so can really only see if they turn out right, wrong or in between.

[Coast]

This mornings actual windspeeds from three sources:

( XC Weather )

( Netweather )

( http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/observations/ )

Met O fax current:

Forecast for today:

Media:

Forecasters warn of 70mph winds

(UKPA) – 13 hours ago

Parts of Scotland are to be battered by winds of up to 70mph, forecasters have warned. The Met Office said severe westerly gales will hit Tayside, Fife, the Lothians, Borders and central and south-west Scotland in the early hours of Thursday until 8am, and warned that travel could be disrupted as a result.

Helen Rossington, senior meteorologist for MeteoGroup, the weather division of the Press Association, said the strongest winds would affect the country during the early hours of the morning, but added that they will ease off later in the day.

She said: "Cold air will move in from the north, meaning temperatures will be getting much colder across Scotland from tomorrow and throughout the rest of the week. "Early tomorrow parts of the country will have strong winds reaching up to around 70mph. They will be strongest during the first part of the morning and will ease off later."

http://www.google.co...01326305065866A

Can members anywhere please add any overnight windspeed data to confirm or otherwise the above please?

[Essan]

According to Piers:

• 
  Latest information on 12 Jan 00:15Gmt Met Office now warn of Severe Gales (9) in 14 sea areas and storm 10 in 3 of these and tehre are warnings of wintry showers in 8. This confirms WeatherAction storm & snow warnings for 10-13th see http://twitpic.com/868po8 (although track of low not so far south); and confirms our warning that MO short range would underestimate ferocity in this period.
  

[Coast]

According to Piers:

(although track of low not so far south); and confirms our warning that MO short range would underestimate ferocity in this period.

The pink area was not ringed by me, it was in the original and is not actually the UK. Check the actual windspeeds I have posted above for current confirmation and I will do some more later in the day

Can members anywhere please add any overnight windspeed data to confirm or otherwise the above please?

Just pulled this from the Atlantic storms thread:

cranked up to 77mph as of 7.20am, must be funneling going on between Axe Edge and the Goyt exacerbating the wind speeds.

Blimey! There must be some sort of local effect, the highest gust here, last time I looked half an hour ago, was 56 mph.

[Coast]

http://www.forthroadbridge.org/weather

[johnholmes]

a report on Look North suggested 60mph in a number of places, they did not make much of it but Bradfield reported a gust to 81mph?. Its the same place near Bradford that reported the highest official gust in the last bout of severe gales.

[Essan]

The pink area was not ringed by me, it was in the original and is not actually the UK. Check the actual windspeeds I have posted above for current confirmation and I will do some more later in the day

Hang on, the low was further south than the MetO forecast? The main low is off Norway whilst a small sub low ran eastwards to the north of Scotland - exactly as forecast. And I refuse to accept that German Bight is in southern England