Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2011/2012

[Partholon]

All change after the SSW.

Well played C, hats off Sir...

So a technical SSW has now actually occurred? Whatever the case it's a very good sign when all eyes are off this thread, and there are a thousand-odd eyes on the model thread:)

With this in mind, I hope chino' and others who provided all the info in this thread are rewarded with some of white stuff in the days ahead.

[damianslaw]

Yes this thread has been very quiet in recent days. I didn't think a SW had occured but it looks like one has happened under most peoples' radar. I understand the effects are usually 10-15 days now line - so around the 7-12th Feb, could this help support heights to our NW as the PV moves to the west and consequently the second half of Feb could be a very cold snowy period indeed.. remains to be seen.

[lorenzo]

This post was what I was referring to last night, an SSW in all bar the smallest of margins, this time series shows the peak temp which is on the rise again.. C will be able to explain more, this for me was the point where the Vortex got it's knockout blow.

[greybing]

God ,this is like how it must feel for football fans during an important game.TENSION,ahhhhhhh[assumption as football is akin to reading latin in brail in terms of my understading,but I do know it is all ups and downs]

Edited January 29, 2012 by greybing

[chionomaniac]

Will hopefully have time for an update later. For obvious reasons I have been distracted by the tropospheric output that the change in stratospheric conditions has led to!

Edited January 29, 2012 by chionomaniac

[chionomaniac]

Briefly, I am seeing the increasing signs in the outputs of Greenland height rises following the initial Scandinavia high. Both the ECM and GFS have had runs suggesting this. I would therefore expect to see either undercutting or amplification downstream in more model solutions from around day 10.

This could lead to a more prolonged cold spell. So for those touting an early end to the cold, beware, another recharge from the north could follow quickly behind.

[Rollo]

I wonder whether how much the MetO factor the stratospheric profiles into their forecasts, lets face it Chino it is only acouple of years ago that to most of us all this was unknown although I appreciate it has been researched for years.

[Pixel]

Hi Chio, if you get a moment could you post a link to where we can see the evolution of these models over time to now - or maybe even a small set of images side by side to illustrate - I've found this subject to very interesting but find it hard to visualise the changes. Many thanks.

[chionomaniac]

Hi Chio, if you get a moment could you post a link to where we can see the evolution of these models over time to now - or maybe even a small set of images side by side to illustrate - I've found this subject to very interesting but find it hard to visualise the changes. Many thanks.

All links on first post

[stewfox]

I wonder whether how much the MetO factor the stratospheric profiles into their forecasts, lets face it Chino it is only acouple of years ago that to most of us all this was unknown although I appreciate it has been researched for years.

JH was going to do some research re historic correlation, has that been done ?

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

so all in all as origonally thought we'r in for a second half of winter dominated by high lat blocking weather thats from the north or the east , very good signs and very snowy potential regarding battle ground events, channel lows , convection from north sea , and this is all in feb who knows what march could bring hay!!??

[Gowon]

so all in all as origonally thought we'r in for a second half of winter dominated by high lat blocking weather thats from the north or the east , very good signs and very snowy potential regarding battle ground events, channel lows , convection from north sea , and this is all in feb who knows what march could bring hay!!??

exactley, it looks like being a cold start to spring this year!

[cooling climate]

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Posted 05 January 2012 - 20:33

Personally and this could be just wishfull thinking but I can see

no negatives in this major warming thats being forcast. I would

expect to see a very negative - AO and then -NAO develope

from this. Also looking at the height profiles from 10 hpa down

through 100 hpa I'm inclined to believe a cold pattern will develope

within the 10 to 15 day range.

The effects of the SSW ( if there is one) should be seen throughout

the stratosphere and troposphere for several weeks to come,

whether this means prolonged cold for the UK and Europe or polar

(Arctic) incursions from time to time depending on other teleconnections

is far to early to say but I really like what I am seeing at the moment.

My money is on a stonking easterly setting up within the next 3 to 5

weeks with a portion of the vortex trapped over central Europe.

Not a lot to ask for is it.

Not a bad punt from the 05 of January.

[karyo]

The possibility of height rises over Greenland is music to my ears! I hope we continue to see the benefits of the warm stratosphere well into March!

By the way, the forecast is for cooling to take place in the next few days. Chiono, do you think that another warming is in store for the foreseable future?

Karyo

[phil nw.]

Briefly, I am seeing the increasing signs in the outputs of Greenland height rises following the initial Scandinavia high. Both the ECM and GFS have had runs suggesting this. I would therefore expect to see either undercutting or amplification downstream in more model solutions from around day 10.

This could lead to a more prolonged cold spell. So for those touting an early end to the cold, beware, another recharge from the north could follow quickly behind.

Yes a Scandi trough and Heights to our North West would be a distinct possibilty further into feb.

Mean zonal winds forecasts continue to be weak.Here at days 5 and 10

Good signs as the vortex continues to disrupt.

[weatherjunkie]

Looks like a rather sizeable +MT event coming out of NA. Height rises penetrating to near the Pole from 30-100hPa and troposphere. Another punch for sure to the PV. We already know that the lower strat PV is beat up, so anything from here on out is pretty much overkill. Still not seeing a technical SSW, but we're good to go for high latitude blocking whenever the troposphere decides that it is time.

[pottyprof]

JH was going to do some research re historic correlation, has that been done ?

John's busy at the moment but I've no doubt that he will post something as soon as he has the chance of putting something together.

[MattH]

No

We had local wave breaking events as opposed to remote seen now.

C, is there any info or online papers with regards to these different events and how they can affect the conditions? - It's a big vague that relationship in comparison to previous winters and local wave breaking events compared with remote this year...

Want to read up on this if poss and fill a "gap"

Cheers. Matt

[lorenzo]

The last paper I found on this was

Stationary planetary wave propgation in Northern Hemipshere Winter - climatological analysis of the refractive index.

Q.Li, H-F Graf and M.A Giorgetta

Once you have deciphered it let us know Matt , cooked my noodle.

[chionomaniac]

C, is there any info or online papers with regards to these different events and how they can affect the conditions? - It's a big vague that relationship in comparison to previous winters and local wave breaking events compared with remote this year...

Want to read up on this if poss and fill a "gap"

Cheers. Matt

Here are a few Matt. Sadly there is a lot of research still needed in the subject.

I can't find the paper that described

http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/~swr01tjw/pubs/Woollings_jas07.pdf

http://www.columbia.edu/%7elmp/paps/waugh+polvani-PlumbFestVolume-2010.pdf

http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/users/isavelyev/GFD-2/Rossby%20waves.pdf

http://ess.uci.edu/researchgrp/gudrun/files/2007GL029509.pdf

[johnholmes]

John's busy at the moment but I've no doubt that he will post something as soon as he has the chance of putting something together.

not busy-skiing mate!

back now and trying to catch up on a whole host of problems needing sorting out.

As I suggested on another thread it will be summer AT LEAST before there is anything to post about the item.

[Jack Wales]

Hi,

As i see it the stratospheric profile is becoming less conducive for cold, I hasten to add I'm no expert in this field so feel free to clarify my understanding. The current NH stratospheric profile currently shows a cold anomoly, though this is undercut by downwelling from the warming event in mid January...

Due to the time lag of warming events affecting the troposphere, is it correct to assume that the upcoming cold spell is the result of the January warming event? Conversely, does that mean that the current cold anomoly will have the opposite effect towards mid/end of feb and facilitate a return to synoptics observed in early January?

With regard to the forecast SSW event, I fail to see this on the CPC forecast charts although a gradual warming appears to be in process, especially at lower levels. Having said that, the warming seems to be centred over N America / Asia...

The persistent cold anomoly around the UK / N Atlantic would appear to be a straspheric vortex which to my lesser trained eye would encourage troughing in the region at the surface. Feel free to interpret or explain the charts as you see them...........

Cheers

JW

Edited January 31, 2012 by Jack Wales

[summer blizzard]

Hi,

As i see it the stratospheric profile is becoming less conducive for cold, I hasten to add I'm no expert in this field so feel free to clarify my understanding. The current NH stratospheric profile currently shows a cold anomoly, though this is undercut by downwelling from the warming event in mid January...

Due to the time lag of warming events affecting the troposphere, is it correct to assume that the upcoming cold spell is the result of the January warming event? Conversely, does that mean that the current cold anomoly will have the opposite effect towards mid/end of feb and facilitate a return to synoptics observed in early January?

With regard to the forecast SSW event, I fail to see this on the CPC forecast charts although a gradual warming appears to be in process, especially at lower levels. Having said that, the warming seems to be centred over N America / Asia...

The persistent cold anomoly around the UK / N Atlantic would appear to be a straspheric vortex which to my lesser trained eye would encourage troughing in the region at the surface. Feel free to interpret or explain the charts as you see them...........

Cheers

JW

The stratosphere itself is still warmer than average at 10hpa through to 60hpa so the cooling may have a minimal effect if this holds.

[chionomaniac]

Will update later JW but in short we still have very promising stratospheric conditions for tropospheric cold for the rest of the month.

[Cloud 10]

Will update later JW but in short we still have very promising stratospheric conditions for tropospheric cold for the rest of the month.

Looks like a signal for northern blocking,reverse zonal winds at 500hpa right over the pole.