848 replies to this topic

[shedhead]

chionomaniac, on 26 October 2011 - 15:34 , said:

Not as quickly as you should!

Surely he is entitled to his opinion isn't he? Very many people have little or no confidence in LRF's, including the MO, who having been severely burnt on several occasions recently have perhaps wisely now decided to keep sturm beyond 30 days. Personally I view them as a bit of harmless fun and have no problem having a crack based on what my experience tells me, but that view is definately not universal and the more 'loony fringe' out there certainly don't help the overall cause to bring LRF's more into the mainstream.

Edited by shedhead, 26 October 2011 - 15:52 .

[Radiating Dendrite]

shedhead, on 26 October 2011 - 15:51 , said:

Surely he is entitled to his opinion isn't he? Very many people have little or no confidence in LRF's, including the MO, who having been severely burnt on several occasions recently have perhaps wisely now decided to keep sturm beyond 30 days. Personally I view them as a bit of harmless fun and have no problem having a crack based on what my experience tells me, but that view is definately not universal and the more 'loony fringe' out there certainly don't help the overall cause to bring them more into the mainstream.

I think it is the fact that he does not give any reason for his opinion.

Also it was his first post and he then vanished, clearly just a WUM if you ask me.

[chionomaniac]

shedhead, on 26 October 2011 - 15:51 , said:

Surely he is entitled to his opinion isn't he? Very many people have little or no confidence in LRF's, including the MO, who having been severely burnt on several occasions recently have perhaps wisely now decided to keep sturm beyond 30 days. Personally I view them as a bit of harmless fun and have no problem having a crack based on what my experience tells me, but that view is definately not universal and the more 'loony fringe' out there certainly don't help the overall cause to bring them more into the mainstream.

I recognise a troll when I can see one. It is like trying to ban the development of science.

[ITSY]

early forecast from me:
Mild, occassionay very mild November - with above average precipitation for Western parts (inc. N.Ireland) and Scotland. Eastern parts likely to be dryer than normal - but won't rule out a few severe spells of wet and windy weather; it is november. Any November snow wil be confined to the Highlands of Scotland (as is the case now) and very ocassionaly the Northern hills of England - but nothing too serious.
December, I expect, will be colder than November - but still above average overall. I'm going with a tussle between a developing European/Scandi high and various Atlantic lows. This could potentially deliver the occassional bit and piece of low level snow - but certainly nothing that compares to December 2010 - or even December 2009, when some parts of the south had a White Christmas. Rainfall therefore expected to be similar to that of November - concentrated in Western and Northern parts, though not exclusively so, with other areas seeing either average or below average rainfall.
January 2012 becomes colder IMO, high pressure being the largest reason. I expect cold nights and mildish days, at least to begin with, eventually turning into cold days as well. Expecting an average month nationwide but colder than average for parts of Scotland and the North. Less rain and certainly dryer than either of the two previous months. What rainfall there is though becomes increasingly likely to fall as snow over all northern elevations - and as the month progresses, and the high pressure begins to act as more of a blocking high to either our NW or NE, the chances of more widespread snow increases. Not a month to remember, I would suggest, but an interesting period of weather - fluctuating from Mild to Cold as the general theme.
February is perhaps the best chance of that snowmeggedon that everyone seems to be after. I believe this will be a cold month - the only below average month, perhaps akin to that of Feb 2009, where in cambridgeshire for instance, we had 17 days of lying snow and 7 days of falling snow in a row - which remains the longest period of snowfall I have ever had in the UK. Rainfall is likely to be below average overall - though it won't seem snow because of increasing snow depths - which obviously need only a tenth of rainfall equivalent to seem as bad.
Overall I predict an average winter - which, depending on the severity of either December warmth or February Cold, could swing either way. The theme is one of warmth to Cold. Rainfall is expected to be below average for most in the South and East - and increasing to average and then above average the further north and west one goes.
This is based on solar activity, arctic Ice, GLAM (as explained in the netweather official video from Stuart), current activity, sea temperatures and a combination of other available forecasts.
Not saying this is what will happen, but i wanted my first ever official pop.

ps i'll update that again in late November to include only the actual Winter months. I expect some changes , but with the general theme to remain.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

ITSY, on 26 October 2011 - 16:11 , said:

early forecast from me:
Mild, occassionay very mild November - with above average precipitation for Western parts (inc. N.Ireland) and Scotland. Eastern parts likely to be dryer than normal - but won't rule out a few severe spells of wet and windy weather; it is november. Any November snow wil be confined to the Highlands of Scotland (as is the case now) and very ocassionaly the Northern hills of England - but nothing too serious.
December, I expect, will be colder than November - but still above average overall. I'm going with a tussle between a developing European/Scandi high and various Atlantic lows. This could potentially deliver the occassional bit and piece of low level snow - but certainly nothing that compares to December 2010 - or even December 2009, when some parts of the south had a White Christmas. Rainfall therefore expected to be similar to that of November - concentrated in Western and Northern parts, though not exclusively so, with other areas seeing either average or below average rainfall.
January 2012 becomes colder IMO, high pressure being the largest reason. I expect cold nights and mildish days, at least to begin with, eventually turning into cold days as well. Expecting an average month nationwide but colder than average for parts of Scotland and the North. Less rain and certainly dryer than either of the two previous months. What rainfall there is though becomes increasingly likely to fall as snow over all northern elevations - and as the month progresses, and the high pressure begins to act as more of a blocking high to either our NW or NE, the chances of more widespread snow increases. Not a month to remember, I would suggest, but an interesting period of weather - fluctuating from Mild to Cold as the general theme.
February is perhaps the best chance of that snowmeggedon that everyone seems to be after. I believe this will be a cold month - the only below average month, perhaps akin to that of Feb 2009, where in cambridgeshire for instance, we had 17 days of lying snow and 7 days of falling snow in a row - which remains the longest period of snowfall I have ever had in the UK. Rainfall is likely to be below average overall - though it won't seem snow because of increasing snow depths - which obviously need only a tenth of rainfall equivalent to seem as bad.
Overall I predict an average winter - which, depending on the severity of either December warmth or February Cold, could swing either way. The theme is one of warmth to Cold. Rainfall is expected to be below average for most in the South and East - and increasing to average and then above average the further north and west one goes.
This is based on solar activity, arctic Ice, GLAM (as explained in the netweather official video from Stuart), current activity, sea temperatures and a combination of other available forecasts.
Not saying this is what will happen, but i wanted my first ever official pop.

A very interesting read there mate, only time will tell how accurate it is of course but I congratulate you on having a go. An average winter would suit most on here, I think if it wasn't for last December's record breaking cold peoples expectations might be a little lower, I know mine would be lol

[pacino]

Radiating Dendrite, on 26 October 2011 - 15:29 , said:

Why should it be banned?

I think long range forecasting is irrelevant and useless. I have never seen the point trying to predict long range forecasts with fancy computer models and eclectic research, when a majority of the time it's unaccurate. I really hope winter 2011/2012 brings record-breaking snowfall, followed by a cold and miserable summer. Better stock up on your kleenex girls.

[cyclonic happiness]

pacino, on 26 October 2011 - 17:49 , said:

I think long range forecasting is irrelevant and useless. I have never seen the point trying to predict long range forecasts with fancy computer models and eclectic research, when a majority of the time it's unaccurate. I really hope winter 2011/2012 brings record-breaking snowfall, followed by a cold and miserable summer. Better stock up on your kleenex girls.

Best close this thread then shall we? or we could just talk about it (forum)?

[Snowstorm1]

pacino, on 26 October 2011 - 17:49 , said:

I think long range forecasting is irrelevant and useless. I have never seen the point trying to predict long range forecasts with fancy computer models and eclectic research, when a majority of the time it's unaccurate. I really hope winter 2011/2012 brings record-breaking snowfall, followed by a cold and miserable summer. Better stock up on your kleenex girls.

Well IGNORE it then? And I have the same hopes for winter as you

Edited by Snowstorm1, 26 October 2011 - 18:10 .

[feb1991blizzard]

shedhead, on 26 October 2011 - 15:51 , said:

Surely he is entitled to his opinion isn't he? Very many people have little or no confidence in LRF's, including the MO, who having been severely burnt on several occasions recently have perhaps wisely now decided to keep sturm beyond 30 days. Personally I view them as a bit of harmless fun and have no problem having a crack based on what my experience tells me, but that view is definately not universal and the more 'loony fringe' out there certainly don't help the overall cause to bring LRF's more into the mainstream.

The fact that very many people have little confidence in them is not the point, if they should be banned then how many other things would he want banned. If someone is gullable enough to go out and buy winter clothes, shovels and a new central heating system because a couple of tin pot organisations release a forecast in June saying we are going to have a mini ice age in January then that is their problem and if the met office are confident enough to advise the government then why should the forecast not be released to the public - the very people that the government will advise based on the forecast. As long as people realise that the caveat is and probably always will be for my lifetime is that LRFs should only be used as a guide and are based on probability, As the BBC monthly update says at the bottom 'Forecasting beyond a week stretches even the most experienced meteorologist'.

[johnholmes]

feb1991blizzard, on 26 October 2011 - 18:40 , said:

if the met office are confident enough to advise the government then why should the forecast not be released to the public - the very people that the government will advise based on the forecast. As long as people realise that the caveat is and probably always will be for my lifetime is that LRFs should only be used as a guide and are based on probability, As the BBC monthly update says at the bottom 'Forecasting beyond a week stretches even the most experienced meteorologist'.

do we know just what, even roughly, what the Met O advice to the government was, assuming that they actually have done this?
anyone able to help please?

[feb1991blizzard]

johnholmes, on 26 October 2011 - 19:40 , said:

do we know just what, even roughly, what the Met O advice to the government was, assuming that they actually have done this?
anyone able to help please?

Im not totally sure but i know that the national grid base their forcast of energy use on the winter forecast. Here is a link but im not sure there is any weather report in there, i cant open PDFs but i did read it, someone posted it on the Daily mail winter 2011/2012 thread and from what i remember it was based on expectations of an average winter.

http://www.nationalg...as/TYS/outlook/

EDIT : It looks like its just based on the raw data from these met office long range models. looks like its the probability maps that there based on rather than the ensemble mean, not sure if this is wise.

http://www.metoffice...al/gpc-outlooks

Anyway maybe im wrong but i could swear i read some text somewhere.

Edited by feb1991blizzard, 26 October 2011 - 20:14 .

[Liam J]

feb1991blizzard, on 26 October 2011 - 20:03 , said:

Im not totally sure but i know that the national grid base their forcast of energy use on the winter forecast. Here is a link but im not sure there is any weather report in there, i cant open PDFs but i did read it, someone posted it on the Daily mail winter 2011/2012 thread and from what i remember it was based on expectations of an average winter.

http://www.nationalg...as/TYS/outlook/

Here is a section taken from the PDF, I would say the Most likely probability is for an average winter.

Weather
7. The Met Office have now ceased publication of their long term winter weather
forecast, however, their website continues to provide long term probability maps.
The September maps for Europe for the period of December through to February
suggests the following probabilities for the UK and most of Europe:


a 0 – 40% probability of above normal temperatures

a 20 – 40% probability of near normal temperatures

a 20 – 60% probability of below normal temperatures

8. Last winter’s weather illustrated the variability of winter weather. It was an average
winter, based on in National Grid’s 83 year weather history, but contained the coldest
December and the 5th warmest February.

Edited by Liam J, 26 October 2011 - 20:13 .

[Polar Maritime]

Met office have just called for an Average Winter, based on Sun Spot activity and other normal factors just on Radio 4.

Edited by snowrob, 26 October 2011 - 20:21 .

[feb1991blizzard]

snowrob, on 26 October 2011 - 20:19 , said:

Met office have just called for an Average Winter, based on Sun Spot activity and other normal factors just on Radio 4.

Did they give any details on how it may pan out on a month by month basis?

[Snowstorm1]

feb1991blizzard, on 26 October 2011 - 20:27 , said:

Did they give any details on how it may pan out on a month by month basis?

Id also be interested too as average winter could be a very cold month and a very mild month with an average month for example would be average overall

Edited by Snowstorm1, 26 October 2011 - 20:30 .

[Aaron]

I doubt all three winter months will be average, how often does that happen? Probably a mixture of mild and cold.

[summer blizzard]

Not sure what the National Grid are going by but last winter was 1.6C below average (coldest third of winters infact), saw the 2nd coldest December on record, not the first and saw the 22nd warmest February, not 5th.

Aaron, on 26 October 2011 - 20:32 , said:

I doubt all three winter months will be average, how often does that happen? Probably a mixture of mild and cold.

Winter 2006 may be one of the closest (-0.5, +0.1 and -0.7).

[feb1991blizzard]

Snowstorm1, on 26 October 2011 - 20:30 , said:

Id also be interested too as average winter could be a very cold month and a very mild month with an average month for example would be average overall

I hope the winter is average for temperature , 6 weeks out of the 12 with a 7c positive temperature anomaly and a massive positive rainfall anomaly in the other 6!

Edited by feb1991blizzard, 26 October 2011 - 20:44 .

[A Scottish Winter's Tale]

The question is what is an average winter month and winter and what is an average CET for a winter month? I would imagine an average winter would mean a decent amount of snowfall events aswell as some lying, some cold temperatures aswell as milder periods.

As mentioned above, an average winter could have some notably cold weather aswell as mild.

[Aaron]

An average winter here will always include some snow.. an average winter in central London might not.