848 replies to this topic

[A Scottish Winter's Tale]

summer blizzard, on 30 November 2011 - 23:30 , said:

Summer Blizzard's Winter 2012 Forecast

Brilliant and another forecast for a below average winter.

[Eugene]

Quote

CET Temperature 0.5c above normal. Precipitation 100% of the average.

Which averages are you using gavin?.... if 1981 to 2010 then you are going for 5.1C like me, i think you'll be very close.

Hope the rest of your winter forecast comes off too sounds like a pretty good winter for cold weather fans.

[Gavin P]

Fantastic work SB. I wish I knew enough about teleconnections to make an indepth forecast like that. Wow.

Roger J Smith, on 30 November 2011 - 23:30 , said:

Solar activity is no guarantee of mild weather. Here's a list of months that fell in a max-solar year.

Feb 1947
Jan 1979
Jan 1917
Jan 1830

and these months were during years very close to a solar max

Feb 1956
Jan 1940
Jan 1929
Feb 1895
Jan 1838
Jan 1814 (a very good analogue for the overall solar trend)
Jan 1780
Jan 1740

The reputation of solar activity is really based on the Maunder minimum and the overall cold aspect of the Dalton minimum periods. Otherwise there is almost no demonstrable correlation. I did notice in my research that CET winters tend to be mildest about 1-2 years before solar max. This was not a huge spike in the data but otherwise the derived average was rather invariable when compared to solar activity. The list above is not meant to say that solar peak gives a cold signal, rather, that it does not prevent one.

I've always been lead to believe the important thing about solar max/min is not so much and max and mins per se, but the kind of max and mins within the cycle. For instance the minimum of cycle 23 was much longer and deeper than a normal min, so much more condusive to helping develop severe European winters.

Similar with maximums. The maximum of cycle 23 was very intense, hence the "write off" winters of the late 90's for cold.

So its really the strength/length of these cycles that counts in the end?

As the maximum of cycle 24 looks like being one of the weakest in the past 100 years, at no point should it on its own be enough to prevent cold winters (unlike the 90's when I think it DID play a big role in those write off winters) But of course all the other big drivers, such as ENSO and the PDO are still important factors in year to year variability.

Eugene, on 01 December 2011 - 11:42 , said:

Which averages are you using gavin?.... if 1981 to 2010 then you are going for 5.1C like me, i think you'll be very close.

Hope the rest of your winter forecast comes off too sounds like a pretty good winter for cold weather fans.

81-10

Edited by Gavin P, 01 December 2011 - 12:48 .

[Glacier Point]

Good effort SB, although I think your December forecast is wide of the mark given the stratospheric profile.

[Active Weather Dude]

Tellow, on 30 November 2011 - 21:07 , said:

If their forecast is right, even if it does have a small bias to colder than average, it will be a disappointment for many people like us on here.

Just remember though, stealing the thoughts now from Brians' latest buzz on TWO which I totally agree with, a lot of the winters between 1992 and 2007 were mild, above or way above average winters! TWO winter forecast is for an average winter, meaning that snowfall across many parts of the UK is still quite likely!

He even says that he would be suprised if there wasn't at least one decent snowfall everywhere in the UK, including the south!

So whilst not expecting a winter like the last couple, that doesn't mean that most parts of the UK won't get snowfall, because, if his forecast verififes, they would!

[Coast]

summer blizzard, on 30 November 2011 - 23:30 , said:

Summer Blizzard's Winter 2012 Forecast

Another great effort with lots of thought and supporting data, thank you SB. Again, like the others, I shall follow this as the Winter unfolds and we can see who came closest next year.

[Boar Wrinklestorm]

My forecast, here, is going to plan ....

Edited by Boar Wrinklestorm, 01 December 2011 - 13:03 .

[The watcher]

I think many of the late November published forecasts are going to plan with the ones released early november and october falling short. What will really lessen the number of correct calls this early is what happens mid december. A Long Long way to go yet before we can assess who's going to be close, it's only the first day of winter.

[Andy163]

summer blizzard, on 30 November 2011 - 23:30 , said:

Summer Blizzard's Winter 2012 Forecast

Superb forecasting there mate, well done Hope it works out for you

[summer blizzard]

Glacier Point, on 01 December 2011 - 12:00 , said:

Good effort SB, although I think your December forecast is wide of the mark given the stratospheric profile.

Thank you.

While there is always the chance of a swift change, i do feel that my December forecast is slightly flawed due to not taking the MJO into account (don't know enough about it really although i intend to for summer), the only analogue to feature an Atlantic Trough in my set was actually December 2007 although i did not support the ridging over Scandinavia that early. I think that my January and February forecasts are actually pretty close to your own although the trough being further west in January.

I also think that with my AO forecast going from -0.1 in January to -1 in February, this likely indicates an SSW.

[Radiating Dendrite]

The watcher, on 01 December 2011 - 14:11 , said:

I think many of the late November published forecasts are going to plan with the ones released early november and october falling short. What will really lessen the number of correct calls this early is what happens mid december. A Long Long way to go yet before we can assess who's going to be close, it's only the first day of winter.

Mine was released in October and is still going to plan

I did underestimate the November CET though by quite a bit, but the pattern was pretty much bang on and still is!

[johnholmes]

Radiating Dendrite, on 01 December 2011 - 14:30 , said:

Mine was released in October and is still going to plan

I did underestimate the November CET though by quite a bit, but the pattern was pretty much bang on and still is!

cannot find it can you give me the link please?
thanks

plea to admin and mods?
can we have a thread where actual forecasts only are placed-no other comments please. that way its easier than churning through 25 pages to find who forecast what and when?

many thanks

Edited by johnholmes, 01 December 2011 - 14:42 .

[A Scottish Winter's Tale]

summer blizzard, on 30 November 2011 - 23:30 , said:

Summer Blizzard's Winter 2012 Forecast

.

It's good to see that your forecast has every month below average, 2 months below average by quite a bit aswell! But I'm interested to why you're going for such a below average December. The start will be chilly, the middle could be frosty/foggy with High Pressure and the ending could be anything. Just wondering.

Edited by A Winter's Tale, 01 December 2011 - 15:10 .

[summer blizzard]

A Winter, on 01 December 2011 - 14:51 , said:

It's good to see that your forecast has every month below average, 2 months below average by quite a bit aswell! But I'm interested to why you're going for such a below average December. The start will be chilly, the middle could be frosty/foggy with High Pressure and the ending could be anything. Just wondering.

Essentially i just used the analogue average for my temperature forecast although i did put the range as well. December is unlikely to be as cold as forecast but if it can be in the range, then i can be fairly happy and it is just finding a way to adjust for my next forecast.

December was the struggle, all evidence indicates a below average outcome however the current pattern does not.

If i can pick up the patterns in terms of which way the telleconnections go then i will be happy.

[Radiating Dendrite]

johnholmes, on 01 December 2011 - 14:42 , said:

cannot find it can you give me the link please?
thanks

plea to admin and mods?
can we have a thread where actual forecasts only are placed-no other comments please. that way its easier than churning through 25 pages to find who forecast what and when?

many thanks

Hi John.

It is on the first page (under RJs I believe).

[johnholmes]

A Winter, on 01 December 2011 - 14:51 , said:

It's good to see that your forecast has every month below average, 2 months below average by quite a bit aswell! But I'm interested to why you're going for such a below average December. The start will be chilly, the middle could be frosty/foggy with High Pressure and the ending could be anything. Just wondering.

why quote the whole lot rather than the bit your refer to please?

Radiating Dendrite, on 01 December 2011 - 15:06 , said:

Hi John.

It is on the first page (under RJs I believe).

ok I'll go and have a look - ta

[The watcher]

yes john, we need them all bunched together as some great ones are getting lost in the chat.

[johnholmes]

another idea mods
It might not be easy or convenient to do what I first suggested but it should be possible for one of you clever folk to do as watcher suggested?
Have them all together at the beginning of the thread along with the date of issue-please?

Edited by johnholmes, 01 December 2011 - 16:48 .

[Isolated Frost]

My forecast for the first third of December was cool, wet and potentially snowy, especially in the north- and I can't say i'm not pleased with that, but tbf it was the easiest part of the forecast as it was closest!! plenty of time for it to go something up...

[shedhead]

For anyone who is remotely interested... http://www.exactawea...e_Forecast.html