257 replies to this topic

[Jason T]

BLAST FROM THE PAST, on 19 November 2011 - 09:44 , said:

Interesting research showing on the stratos thread re +ve Eurasia snow anomaly. This IMO will be part of the arctic Siberian HP we MAY see coming knocking on our door this winter.
I mentioned that a harsh NH winter is on the cards and its a matter of getting us in on it. Extra-ordinary cold going on right now with Alaska and Siberia. Max temps of -40 to -50 F are being recorded and its quite widespread.

BFTP

Hi Fred, Do you think this winter will be an unexpected gate crasher regarding output that will just turn up, Also what are your thought's regarding winter 2011/12 as of current output. Ie more intense or less.

Manythanks.
SL

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

silver line, on 22 November 2011 - 19:54 , said:

Hi Fred, Do you think this winter will be an unexpected gate crasher regarding output that will just turn up, Also what are your thought's regarding winter 2011/12 as of current output. Ie more intense or less.

Manythanks.
SL

I think we'll get cold shots despite certain teleconnections saying otherwise or we'll get teleconnections that quickly slot into place. To be beat Dec2010? Hell of a thing so I won't say yes but I do think another 'extreme' period is in the offing this winter ie ice days with a good lowland covering of snow, this probably in New Year as I initially concurred with RJS LRF and the more I've had time to look at my method it has fallen into line with RJS pretty well solidly. I think RJS is glad I didn't join him because I would be pushing a Jan 85 or 87 event.......

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST, 22 November 2011 - 20:18 .

[Backtrack]

BLAST FROM THE PAST, on 22 November 2011 - 20:09 , said:

I think we'll get cold shots despite certain teleconnections saying otherwise or we'll get teleconnections that quickly slot into place. To be beat Dec2010? Hell of a thing so I won't say yes but I do think another 'extreme' period is in the offing this winter ie ice days with a good lowland covering of snow, this probably in New Year as I initially concurred with RJS LRF and the more I've had time to look at my method it has fallen into line with RJS pretty well solidly. I think RJS is glad I didn't join him because I would be pushing a Jan 85 or 87 event.......

BFTP

Yes I share similar thoughts BFTP.
It could well be that January will be the big month this winter. I think the majority of our cold will be had in January with the CET well below average.

Edited by Backtrack, 23 November 2011 - 18:41 .

[happy days]

Ian Brown, on 23 November 2011 - 21:50 , said:

What will be interesting is to see if one of the most startling statistics from the period we know as the m/era is tested.

Since 1987, whenever the December CET has exceeded 5C, as looks very likely given current output, the following Jan and Feb have been mild in 20 months out of 22 in the qualifying range. Even the ones that were not mild, could only be classes as average. They were February 1994 and January 2001.

Now of course, that period encompasses what we know as the m/era.What has happened in the last few winters has seen a marked change, so something to keep an eye on.

Thats quite a staggering statistic Ian but i would be a little reluctant to call an above average Dec at this juncture.Granted the 1st week at this time looks generally above the norm that still leaves 3 full weeks which to my mind are still very much up in the air.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Can someone point me to where the first week of Dec looks likely at being above the norm? Just want to know where the 'probability' is coming from. It may be the case but plenty in model output to suggest more cooling as a possibilty [i don't think a freeze is coming iminently]
Intersting Ian and I think that stat will be fully tested as an aside. i think as you know that we have entered a new phase/cycle since Feb 2007 to reverse that. But interesting post and stats.

regards

BFTP

[Isolated Frost]

I agree with Ian, signs seem very zonal, and the odd northerly toppler will take a chunk out, but high winds and a increasing Tm influence will see a average-mild start.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well i think I've gone for a 5.4 c Dec temp. Re a large elephant, there's been a few mammoths removed over last 3 years Ian


BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST, 10 December 2011 - 21:25 .

[scotty_boy_winter]

Lmfao!!!! Great to see you move the goalposts now you've realised the first week in December won't be mild!!!

Very very clever Ian. Unfortunately you can't fool anyone and thats why people dismiss the majority of what you have to say. You said a mild first week. It's been cold. Now you say a mild last third. Even if it is mild you won't be right. If you were any good you would have got the first week right. Just keep saying mild, mild , mild and eventually you'll get one right (;

Ian Brown, on 10 December 2011 - 18:26 , said:

With a progressively milder last third of December now very much on the cards, a plus 5C Dec now looks likely.

Going forward I'm also seeing similarities between the fortcming Jan and Jan 1999, where the Stratospheric profile changed markedly but the PV persisted and HP to the NE could never develop as it may have done.

Either way, looking at my stats abov, a plus 5C December is a rather large elephant in the room when considering the subsequent Jan and Feb.

[feb1991blizzard]

Ian Brown, on 23 November 2011 - 21:50 , said:

What will be interesting is to see if one of the most startling statistics from the period we know as the m/era is tested.

Since 1987, whenever the December CET has exceeded 5C, as looks very likely given current output, the following Jan and Feb have been mild in 20 months out of 22 in the qualifying range. Even the ones that were not mild, could only be classes as average. They were February 1994 and January 2001.

Now of course, that period encompasses what we know as the m/era.What has happened in the last few winters has seen a marked change, so something to keep an eye on.

I wouldnt call feb 1994 average, i was in the midlands then and snow lay for 2 weeks out of the 4, we had a potent easterly which delivered ice days and heavy snow around the 11th or 12th i think and a reload the following week and it didnt warm up untill right at the end and as for your point about what has happened since 1987, well not a lot the last 3 years has been similar to winters post 1987,

[Mr_Data]

happy days, on 23 November 2011 - 22:07 , said:

Thats quite a staggering statistic Ian but i would be a little reluctant to call an above average Dec at this juncture.Granted the 1st week at this time looks generally above the norm that still leaves 3 full weeks which to my mind are still very much up in the air.

And often when it didn't exceed 5.0C, January or Feburay or indeed both was mild.

Such as Decembers 1989, 1991 (February 92 was mild), 1992, 1996 (February 1997 was mild), 2001, 2003, 2007. So what does that tell us?

January or February was very often mild in that period, whilst December was much less so. That is all that tells us.

[Kentish Kiwi]

Mr_Data, on 12 December 2011 - 16:31 , said:

And often when it didn't exceed 5.0C, January or Feburay or indeed both was mild.

Such as Decembers 1989, 1991 (February 92 was mild), 1992, 1996 (February 1997 was mild), 2001, 2003, 2007. So what does that tell us?

January or February was very often mild in that period, whilst December was much less so. That is all that tells us.

Bingo. A quite concise illustration of how data/statistics can be moulded and influenced to support a contrasting statement or point of view.

I must say I'm rather disheartened by the increased frequency with which the 'christmas pudding' has been referred to... I'd hoped we'd have moved on from that exasperating business by now.

[Seven of Nine]

Ian Brown, on 13 December 2011 - 19:16 , said:

Why ? It was the most significant shift in weather patterns since the mini-Ice Age and it happened in our lifetimes.

Nonsense Ian, your theory barely lasted twenty years whereas the LIA lasted 450 years.

How's the book coming along by the way?

Edited by Seven of Nine, 13 December 2011 - 20:27 .

[spindrift1980]

Seven of Nine, on 13 December 2011 - 20:23 , said:

Nonsense Ian, your theory barely lasted twenty years whereas the LIA lasted 450 years.

How's the book coming along by the way?

Surely far too early to say whether the colder trend of the last 2 or 3 winters is anything more than a blip in a long-term pattern of warming? (although I certainly hope not)

[Seven of Nine]

spindrift1980, on 13 December 2011 - 20:31 , said:

Surely far too early to say whether the colder trend of the last 2 or 3 winters is anything more than a blip in a long-term pattern of warming? (although I certainly hope not)

The overall trend is one of temps remaining static, but we are going way off topic now.

[Mr_Data]

Ian Brown, on 13 December 2011 - 19:16 , said:

Why ? It was the most significant shift in weather patterns since the mini-Ice Age and it happened in our lifetimes.

Note the word "was" in that response.

The weather patterns have not shifted, our weather has always come in from the west as per norm, I can show you a mean January pressure chart from the late 1950s which has the Azores high and Icelandic low in place, 30 years before the so called m#dern era. The only shift is in the frequency of the types of weather patterns. What has caused this change in frequency is open to debate but the fact is northerly blocking has not become extinct during winter as some claims were made only 3 years ago.

This fact has to be accepted now as I have been trying to put across for a long time. Weather types do not become extinct, its the variation in frequency of weather types that change s over time.

Edited by Mr_Data, 13 December 2011 - 20:43 .

[Mr_Data]

Ian Brown, on 13 December 2011 - 21:23 , said:

.

Many of us did believe that winter blocking patterns witnessed in the last couple of years had become impossible to achieve, I suspect that most members held that view even if they did not express it.

I for one didn't, how can a weather pattern become extinct in a chaotic system? It can't, there are far too many permetations for this to happen hence why it conjured up one of the coldest spells on record last December.

Incidentally, I have a map of the globe from 1913 which has the mean annual pressure "centres of action" and it has the Azores High and Icelandic low on it even back then. So for the last 100 years at least, the mean pressure chart of the north Atlantic has been the Azores high and Icelandic low. That has not changed.

[Kentish Kiwi]

Mr_Data, on 13 December 2011 - 21:41 , said:

I for one didn't, how can a weather pattern become extinct in a chaotic system?

I quite honestly can't get my head around. Seems to indicate a huge deal of ignorance and stubbornness, bordering on stupidity, which is all the more confusing as IB is obviously an intelligent enough character.

[lorenzo]

Ian Brown, on 30 December 2011 - 11:09 , said:

Back to the CET, December is going to be around 6, so with my stats above combined with the current NWP, it is looking rather ominous for cold fans.

Don't think it is ominous Ian, but am glad it is now nearly over, still a good deal of Winter to unfold over the next couple of months.

The current NWP will not reflect the changes that are in the post..