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Severe Weather - Monday 17th Oct


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos

Thanks for posting this Jane, potential for gusts of 70knt (80mph) and even tornados, Intersting day coming up with the potential for some extreme weather coming together.

You're welcome Liamsmile.png

Now, just awaiting the forecast from Estofex. Also Nick F has made a detailed forecast over in the convective thread for anyone who wants to take a look.smile.png

http://forum.netweat...day-17-october/

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Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

I would say that the more likely thing that we will get down here is probably some thunder but even that is a slim chance so personally I think that this coming week is going to be just as boring as the past few just gone!

If I take my readings tomorrow afternoon and see my weather station showing a gust past 35mph then yes I will have a different view.

And by the way I know that 35mph isn't very strong, but 34mph is the highest wind reading I have ever recorded since I began doing wind records in October last year.

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

As mentioned above a sting which occured during the storm of January 2005 produced wind gusts in excess of 100mph here on the Cumbrian Coast with mean speeds over 70mph recorded!!

A storm in January 2005 thier was more then 1.

we're all ready getting gusts over 50 mph here. the wetest weather looks futher south from us..

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

http://www.stormsurf.com/cgi-bin/shiro.cgi?a=62105

and K4 above

http://www.ndbc.noaa...d_Kingdom.shtml

The computer model for plotting these charts does have a tendency to put surface centres in not quite the right place so don't be too sure it is there!

I suspect, looking closely at the latest infra red sat picc and the upper air pattern at 300 and 250mb that it is perhaps nearer 54N. Where the models shows it is out of the convergent upper air flow. Its actually underneath the right entrance to the jet at 300mb, an area for deepening. As it does so it tends to move to the left and enter the left exit of the jet. This is if anything an area for more rapid deepening. It is this sequence which the various models are taking on board. As to a sting jet, its not dissimilar to the phrase in terms of over use to polar lows. They are both less frequent than some on web sites tend to try and predict. As to whether it will develop such characteristics then its not something that will be seen until the early hours of tomorrow morning at the earliest. By then the low, if it is going to do what the forecasts predict and get under the left exit of the jet will be deepening rapidly and should be picked up at the surface with one of the auto marine buoys moored out around 20 west, forget the name, but the one fairly well north. Look for falls of 8-10mb per 3 hours and it showing up on the chart I've talked about at the top of this post. Like I said it may get the positions a bit out especially when one is only just starting to form but playing through 4-5 hours of its data should give those of you intending to stay up and watch developments a decent idea. Also take the Met O Fax chart at 00z and then the 06z as being pretty close to what is actually going on.

I'm off to bed-enjoy.

ps

I think the buoy is K5, K3 would be useful but I don't think its active. The link at the top of my amended post takes you to the marine buoys

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

A storm in January 2005 thier was more then 1.

??

NAE 18z continues with the stormy weather for Monday, with 45mph speeds over land in NW England for a time. The NAE also has the depression about 3-4mb lower in pressure than the 18z GFS does for the same time Monday afternoon, still the fine deatails to be firmed up on which the overnight runs should nail this feature by morning.

post-9615-0-03993700-1318802184_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

Pretty excited about this event! Wirral has had a few instances of tornadoes in the past 10 years, so the chance is there again! Also the wind looks like they will be very strong in some places. I'm also looking forward to the possibility of thunderstorms tomorrow night. Looks a good one.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Meto predicted wind gusts for 4pm tomorrow, my town is where the 70mph arrow is over Cumbria, gusts inland 50-60mph.

post-9615-0-92260500-1318804611_thumb.pn

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

An active period coming up then!

just adding a few charts-NAE-18z

post-11361-0-28614500-1318809259_thumb.g

post-11361-0-12661500-1318809278_thumb.g

post-11361-0-11075600-1318809280_thumb.g

post-11361-0-66941000-1318809281_thumb.g

post-11361-0-28921600-1318809283_thumb.g

post-11361-0-42846500-1318809285_thumb.g

post-11361-0-33617300-1318809291_thumb.g

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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

I think people are confusing this feature with something similar to that of a barocyclonic low. Squall Lines by nature are a completely different characteristic that are overriding frontal features which define different airmass boundaries. In particular today's is associated with a cold pool coming down from the North that will drastically lower the temperatures behind it and its this sudden change in temperature variation which gives it the convective 'edge' it needs as it travels south across the UK. Associated with it you'll find localised SLW gusts, embedded hail cores, possible funnel clouds (depending on CAPE) and all the convective goodness us storm-chasers love about the British weather variables.

Personally i'll be watching 3 things today. The wind changes from a SWly to a Northerly, the Temperature gradient drop, and of course any convention (albeit at early evening/night) that comes along.

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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

Yes and il be tracking this squall front right into the southeast England, i still see the potential for an active arrival across the south, with squally gusts and heavy rain, i expect the heaviest to be into the se, the change of wind direction and temperatures will be noticable for sure!

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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

Pretty excited about this event! Wirral has had a few instances of tornadoes in the past 10 years, so the chance is there again! Also the wind looks like they will be very strong in some places. I'm also looking forward to the possibility of thunderstorms tomorrow night. Looks a good one.

Aye, been the odd tornado or two in Leeds over the past 10 years, sadly I missed them all!

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Here it is... developing slowly but surely.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

The change from Swesterly to Northerly looks pretty amazing on the nmm hi-res. From 5pm to 6pm here the nmm has projected a 6c drop in dew points - a 4c drop in temperature (a further 3c drop in the next hour).

In my opinion the heaviest rains come in the lakes/nw england around rush hour with a irish sea wnw'ly. And the coldest 500hpa temps (usually indicate hail potential imo) are tonight and tomorrow with -33/-34c 500 temps.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos

Estofex smile.png

Storm Forecast

Valid: Mon 17 Oct 2011 06:00 to Tue 18 Oct 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sun 16 Oct 2011 22:25

Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for N-Ireland, Scotland and N-UK mainly for severe wind gusts and marginal hail.

A level 1 was issued for SW/CNTRL UK mainly for severe to isolated damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado event.

A level 1 was issued for the far W/SW-Black Sea and adjacent areas mainly for excessive rainfall.

A level 1 was issued for far W-Norway mainly for severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A quasi-stationary and broad upper low is centered over SE-Europe and results in unsettled and cold conditions. An intense cyclonic vortex approaches NW-Europe during the forecast period. Ridging in between (CNTRL Europe) constantly weakens with no deep moist convection forecast.

Despite the marginal conditions for organized convection, there will be two areas with somewhat augmented chances.

I) N-Ireland, Scotland, UK, parts of the North Sea and extreme W-Norway

The first focus of anything severe will be the active cold front passage, crossing Ireland during the noon/early afternoon and UK during the early evening hours from west to east. GFS indicates a tongue of modified subtropical air, which becomes advected just ahead of the cold front. This scenario would assist in a concentrated area with agumented LL CAPE ahead of the cold front, probably maximized over CNTRL/SW- UK. Forecast soundings also reveal some modest 0-3km CAPE release and combined with intense forcing, a forced line of convection (LEWP-like) is expected to evolve along the cold front. Kinematics along/just ahead of this front are very supportive with intense LL speed/directional shear and low LCLs. If a forced line indeed evolves, damaging winds and an isolated tornado event are possible. This line rapidly moves eastwards with a gradual weakening trend expected due to the vanishing prefrontal moisture tongue. Intense forcing however may offset that negative effect by a few hours and hence the level 1 was expanded far to the NE/E.

It has to be noted that GFS is the most optimistic model regarding prefrontal CAPE build-up and also has considerable run-to-run inconsistency with that parameter. Hence uncertainties regarding this event remain high.

With deep, postfrontal CAA forecast, delta-T between SST/atmosphere increases rapidly, especially during the evening hours onwards from west to east. Trajectories hint on a modified, polar air mass and enough fetch for constant air mass modification is available (assisted by latest AMSR-E sea ice maps and NE-Atlantic SST data). Also, vigorous convection is already ongoing south of Iceland at 21Z (16th Oktober) and hence strong showers/isolated thunderstorms are well possible. Main concern right now is the fact that this convection occurs in the well mixed post frontal air mass with expected 850 hPa winds of 20-25 m/s. Hence, downward mixing is possible and we decided to issue a level 1, where the overlap of coldest EL temperatures, best CAPE and highest signals for convergence exist (mainly along the westward facing coastal areas). This level 1 covers severe wind gusts and marginal hail. Please be aware that both level areas overlap and merge to that coarse level 1.

Another level 1 was added for far W-Norway mainly for the morning hours (18th) as the cold front moves ashore. Some low-end CAPE, intense shear and strong 850hPa wind field may assist in severe wind gust events during the cold front passage.

II) NW-Turkey, E-Bulgaria and E-Romania

A sharp baroclinic zone is present over the far W-Black Sea due to the cold mid-level upper trough, which stalls over Bulgaria and Romania. This baroclinic zone is enhanced by the warm SST/cold onshore temperature contrast and features the area, where strong cyclogenesis is most likely....e.g. the far SW Black Sea. Models agree in a gradually strengthening cyclonic vortex over the SW/W-Black Sea, which moves NE-wards. Strong wrap-around moisture is expected as a deformation zone sets-up with favorable warm/moist influx from the E/NE. Some CAPE is expected in this area due to steepening mid-level lapse rates and a few embedded thunderstorms are well possible. The main concern will be excessive rainfall with this convectively enhanced band as a 25-30 m/s LLJ assists in rapid moisture advection towards the coastal areas of far NW-Turkey/ far E-Bulgaria and far E-Romania. It is still unclear where exactly this band of convection will evolve and therefore a coarse high-end level 1 was issued for this event.

A reason for sticking with a level 1 is the fact that this looks like to be a classic heavy, wet snowfall event for onshore areas and it is hard to define either the final transition zone between rain/wet snow or the final snow levels (which may limit final QPF magnitude and run-off problems onshore). Therefore we do not want to issue a level 2 despite WRF/GFS constantly indicating QPF amounts of 100 mm or more in less than 24h just along the coasts within the level 1.

http://www.estofex.org/

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

No mention of strong gusts on the met office warning I expect this to update probably later on. The morning forecast did mention gusts up to 60 mph and possibly 70 mph in places. Going to be a interesting day of weather watching too see how or / if it all develops.

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, snow in winter, wind in Autumn and rainbows in the spring!
  • Location: Isle of Lewis

What the rest of you are about to get is what we had overnight. We heard a massive rumble of thunder about 11.30pm last night, lots of hail and very strong winds. Snow, sleet and hail possible for the Higher areas. I noticed that the Meto have put the snow to higher ground further south now (now in the Southern Uplands.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Not had much time to look at this for today, but things are encouraging. Here's what UKASF have to say about today:

Storm Forecast Severe

Last Updated: 21:02 Sunday, 16th October 2011

Valid: 00:00 Monday, 17th October 2011 - 23:59 Monday, 17th October 2011

post-6667-0-92094900-1318839544.jpg

Areas Affected:

SLGT: N Isles, Highlands, W Isles, W + SW Scotland, Cumbria, Isle of Man, Northern Ireland, NW Ireland

SVR: S + E Ireland, SE Northern Ireland, SW Scotland, Borders, N England, Midlands, Wales

Synopsis:

Deepening upper low moves eastwards across the Faroes, with a surge of very cold air advected southwards on its western flank. Ahead, a thermally-active cold front provides a risk of severe weather, followed by classic coastal convective showers.

Discussion:

A very complicated frontal system develops on Monday in response to a surge of cold air on the western flank of a deep Low, steepening the thermal gradient across residual occluded fronts. This will lead to the gradual development of a cold front as it moves southeastwards across the British Isles.

Convergence and significant veering of surface wind is likely along the front. DLS >80kts and LLS >50kts, combined with >500 m^2/s^2 helicity provides a very good environment for tornadic activity, with good confidence on a squall line and embedded line convection/LEWPs.

Structural damage is a possibility from either tornadic activity or straight lined winds, with the potential for convective gusts of >70kts. Significant moisture advection will occur along the southern side of the front, with a very notable dry punch at ~700mb. The front will be at its most active in the highlighted SVR threat region, weakening gradually as it slide southeastwards away from this area during the evening hours.

Convection will be rather shallow, however, and ELTs are too marginal to warrant a SLGT risk for lightning here. As a result, a SVR level has been issued for strong convective gusts, tornadic potential and a risk of localised flooding from prolonged torrential downpours under squall line conditions. No lightning coverage level has been issued for this event due to the shallowness of the convection.

Behind the cold front, cold mid-levels overspread the area with T500's at or below -32C. Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are likely over coastal parts of NW Britain, continuing into the night hours, with favourable ELTs of -45C. Given the cold air aloft, some small hail is possible in some of these showers.

SkyWarn say:

Last Update: 1600UTC Sunday 16th October 2011

SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WATCH #056

ISSUED: 1700UTC THURSDAY 6TH OCTOBER 2011 (SM/GJ)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

SCOTLAND MUCH OF ENGLAND EXCLUDING SOUTHERN. WALES

IN EFFECT FROM 0800UTC MONDAY 16TH OCTOBER UNTIL 0000UTC TUESDAY 17TH OCTOBER 2011

LOW PRESSURE SITUATED TO THE NORTH WEST OF THE UNITED KINGDOM PRODUCING SECONDARY LOW TO SWEEP ACROSS UK THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

HEAVY RAIN...STRONG GUSTS...HAIL...LOCAL FLOODING

DISCUSSION:

SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO FORM EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN IRELAND WITH TIGHTENING ISOBARS. WITHIN THE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE 500HPA TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN -30/-35�C PROMOTING THE LIKELIHOOD OF HAIL. ACCOMPANYING THE LOW IS A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ESE AS THE DAY CONTINUES BRINGING HEAVY FALLS OF RAIN ACROSS NI / WESTERN & SOUTHERN SCOTLAND IN PARTICULAR WHICH, WITH THE STRONG WINDS FROM PRE-FRONTAL TIGHTENING OF THE ISOBARS WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. MODEL PREDICTIONS FROM THIS MORNING ARE SUGGESTIVE OF 40MM ACCUMULATIONS. WE ARE ALSO EXPECTING GUSTS AROUND 50MPH, POSSIBLY HIGHER IN EXPOSED COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM COLD POOLING. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON, SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND ALSO FURTHER GUSTS TOWARDS THE 50MPH MARK WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT TOWARDS THE MIDLANDS.

I'll try and get a few charts up with some other sources of analysis shortly

post-6667-0-92094900-1318839544_thumb.jp

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Quite a lot happening today!

post-2-0-37687500-1318835588_thumb.png

Impressive charts - the kind of event one would be looking for thundersnow in a couple of months time!

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Looking like a squall line may already be forming. So will the Sheffield shield shred it mercilessly when it gets down here only for it to reform when it passes to the south of us. Getting a washing machine delivered today so it will arrive when they're carrying the new one and the old back and forth to the wagon.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

The charts that Paul posted look very tasty indeed or worrying whichever way you want to look at it!

Very intense Rainfall along a cold front with severe gales just ahead of it for N England and other Northern Irish sea coastal areas, My local radio forecast mentioned perhaps Violent storm force 11 winds later in the Irish sea.

Meto have gusts to 70mph here about 4pm, given the very active nature of this cold front I think there is scope for gusts to exceed this albeit isolated with perhaps 70knts (80mph) These may be in areas that do not have weather stations recording wind obvs, for expample there is only one obvs at St Bees head here on the Cumbrian coast.

Everything including the kitchen sink possible today!!

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

Looking like a squall line may already be forming. So will the Sheffield shield shred it mercilessly when it gets down here only for it to reform when it passes to the south of us. Getting a washing machine delivered today so it will arrive when they're carrying the new one and the old back and forth to the wagon.

Yes indeed radar at the ready.

Cool/very cool in NW Scotland and N Ireland, they won't really cool down due to the squall line being further south. Starts about 9am in C Scotland to N Ireland on the NMM - looking forward to tracking the lowering dew points, temperatures and downpours as it moves along.

At 6pm the Carlisle dp is 3c and the Newcastle one is 10c according to the NMM.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Wow some exciting prospects for northern and western areas later today!

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

So, TORRO say:

post-6667-0-87407200-1318841301.jpg

TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2011/018

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 21:40GMT on Sunday 16th October 2011

Valid from/until: 10:00GMT - 23:59GMT on Monday 17th October 2011 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

England Wales S Scotland Isle of Man N Ireland Eire

THREATS

Squally gusts to 55-60mph, locally 70mph; tornadoes; isolated CG lightning

SYNOPSIS

Strong upper jet will migrate from close to Greenland to above the British Isles by Monday afternoon. A developing upper trough will pass over through the afternoon and evening, and will take on a more confluent charateristic.

At low-levels, a strengthening baroclinic zone will extend from NW Eire into S Scotland, and a frontal wave will move along this as the upper trough crosses. To the south of this wave, model guidance suggests a pronounced line of heavy rainfall - this is assumed to be line convection. Strong low-level winds are supportive of damaging gusts along this line.

They may also be supportive of misocylone development, which is known to enhance severe wind potential, as well as tornado potential. The issue surrounding tornadogenesis is the amount of instability, which is depicted as being generally very low along and just ahead of the front. However, a region of somewhat better instability may accompany the front from approximately central Eire through the Irish Sea into N Wales and N England. Indeed, the reasonably warm waters of the Irish Sea suggest regions bordering it may be most at risk.

A large area has been included in this discussion for a couple of reasons: It is not completely clear how well the line will persist as it drives south-eastwards; there will be no forecaster available to issue updates through the day.

Despite the large area, the corridor of enhanced risk should be noted (lighter green area on map).

Forecaster: RPK

21st OWS have the thunderstorm threat at the tip of Scotland:

21OWS_ATLANTIC-EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_24.gif

Their UKMO interpretation has it in a similar position but shows a lot more going on to the North and West:

21OWS_EUROPE_MODEL-DATA_UKMO-GLOBAL_TS-THREAT_SFC_12_00Z.png

This starts heading South later tonight and into the early hours:

21OWS_EUROPE_MODEL-DATA_UKMO-GLOBAL_TS-THREAT_SFC_24_00Z.png

Aviation weather shows it further South too:

PGNE14_CL.gif

Aberdeen, again more in the early hours:

MU_Aberdeen_avn.png

Windy across a lot of the country but clearing from Scotland southwards later:

sfcwind0.curr.1200lst.d2.png

CAPE just skimming Scotland midday then subsiding:

cape.curr.1200lst.d2.png

Shear:

gfs_icape_eur21.png

gfs_layer_eur21.png

gfs_spout_eur21.png

Lapse rates:

gfs_lapse_eur21.png

gfs_lapse2_eur21.png

Quite some line through the Home Counties by 21.00 hrs with Tornado potential looking high:

gfs_stp_eur21.png

gfs_srh_eur21.png

gfs_gusts_eur21.png

gfs_pw_eur21.png

Looks like the threat starts in Scotland through the daylight hours but worth watching is it progressing further South late afternoon and into the evening with that Tornado potential the one I shall be keeping my eye on.

post-6667-0-87407200-1318841301_thumb.jp

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