Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

[ukpaul]

Hi ukpaul,

Sorry but what does this mean please?

It means that the polar vortex will be split and/or move away from its normal home (at the pole, obviously).

Edited November 6, 2011 by ukpaul

[Weather Boy]

To my mind, the current very mild spell is a bit like rock bottom interest rates - we know it's going to change at some point, it's just a question of when. There's a virtually nil chance of us having a long southerly flow like we have now for the entire winter. Things will change and it would be a highly unusual winter to get no snow at all, even in lowland southern England. The question is whether it's going to be cold with potentially plenty of snow like the last three winters or more Atlantic dominated with just a few northerly or easterly outbreaks to give us the odd snow shower in the south. The fact that it's mild now and looks set to be for the next two weeks or so gives us no real indication of which of these is likely to be correct (or whether it's somewhere between the two).

I love the cold and snow as much as any coldie, but I don't really understand looking for cold weather at this point in the year. Unless you live at elevation in the north you're never going to get any sustained snow or cold before late November at the very earliest and it's unusual before mid December as well.

Personally I think that coldies should relax. Nothing in the present set up gives an indication either way and personally I'm just pleased that I hardly have to heat the house.

[greybing]

To my mind, the current very mild spell is a bit like rock bottom interest rates - we know it's going to change at some point, it's just a question of when. There's a virtually nil chance of us having a long southerly flow like we have now for the entire winter. Things will change and it would be a highly unusual winter to get no snow at all, even in lowland southern England. The question is whether it's going to be cold with potentially plenty of snow like the last three winters or more Atlantic dominated with just a few northerly or easterly outbreaks to give us the odd snow shower in the south. The fact that it's mild now and looks set to be for the next two weeks or so gives us no real indication of which of these is likely to be correct (or whether it's somewhere between the two).

I love the cold and snow as much as any coldie, but I don't really understand looking for cold weather at this point in the year. Unless you live at elevation in the north you're never going to get any sustained snow or cold before late November at the very earliest and it's unusual before mid December as well.

Personally I think that coldies should relax. Nothing in the present set up gives an indication either way and personally I'm just pleased that I hardly have to heat the house.

Yes but us 'coldies' still lke the odd frost and slight winterly interlide which can happen basically anytime from now onwards.I agree,though,nothing on the cards yet.Autmn is great also-the odd frost ,wind ,mild ,coold ,cool and all manner of weather pushed or pulled our way topped with naked colourful leaves..............................you are right i should chill

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

It's a possibility most years!

I suspect that he may mean before the end of winter. My own suspicions are for a SSW to occur around mid January when the inhibitive residual westerly winds from the remnants of the previous wQBO wave finally become extinguished from the lower stratosphere. Interesting nonetheless.

Possibly more interesting after GPs update with the large mountain torque thats occurred?

BFTP

[Luton Weather]

Cold air coming from both sides..

14 November onwards

[karyo]

Possibly more interesting after GPs update with the large mountain torque thats occurred?

BFTP

What update is this??

Karyo

[johnholmes]

What update is this??

Karyo

easy: look at his last post, not necessarily on this thread though

[damianslaw]

To my mind, the current very mild spell is a bit like rock bottom interest rates - we know it's going to change at some point, it's just a question of when. There's a virtually nil chance of us having a long southerly flow like we have now for the entire winter. Things will change and it would be a highly unusual winter to get no snow at all, even in lowland southern England. The question is whether it's going to be cold with potentially plenty of snow like the last three winters or more Atlantic dominated with just a few northerly or easterly outbreaks to give us the odd snow shower in the south. The fact that it's mild now and looks set to be for the next two weeks or so gives us no real indication of which of these is likely to be correct (or whether it's somewhere between the two).

I love the cold and snow as much as any coldie, but I don't really understand looking for cold weather at this point in the year. Unless you live at elevation in the north you're never going to get any sustained snow or cold before late November at the very earliest and it's unusual before mid December as well.

Personally I think that coldies should relax. Nothing in the present set up gives an indication either way and personally I'm just pleased that I hardly have to heat the house.

Agree sustained cold and snow before mid december is the exception rather than the rule. Last year was exceptional - very unusual, very similiar to seeing a 2 week heatwave before mid June. However, short periods of snow and cold before mid december are not that unusual, 2008 delivered such conditions, 2005 and 1993 also did, but in many recent years we have had to wait until mid dec for any susbstantial cold snowy weather to occur - look at 2009 it wasn't until the 18th Dec that the cold and snow arrived.

In the meantime- there is a suggestion of more seasonal fare by the middle of the month - and you don't need bitter northerlies and northeasterlies to deliver proper cold at this time of year, settled conditions with high pressure overhead can deliver the goods with fog and sharp frost- there are signs of such conditions developing as we move through the middle of the month.

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Came across this link earlier and this chap seems pretty confident about another very cold winter but perhaps not hitting us so early. Food for thought at least...

[cheeky_monkey]

Agree sustained cold and snow before mid december is the exception rather than the rule. Last year was exceptional - very unusual, very similiar to seeing a 2 week heatwave before mid June. However, short periods of snow and cold before mid december are not that unusual, 2008 delivered such conditions, 2005 and 1993 also did, but in many recent years we have had to wait until mid dec for any susbstantial cold snowy weather to occur - look at 2009 it wasn't until the 18th Dec that the cold and snow arrived.

Or a lot of winters it never arrives at all

[November13]

I don't think there will be any snow in November other than the high tops. In fact it might even be the only November in a decade without a drop of snow on the Munros!

[trisnow]

Bit of a ramp but I remembered the story of the Pink Footed Geese arriving early so thought I would check when they arrived in Scotland this year and it looks like it was a few days early than last.

12th September this year, 14th September last year and 2nd October 2009. They are getting earlier! Must mean we are in for another cold 'un.

[November13]

Bit of a ramp but I remembered the story of the Pink Footed Geese arriving early so thought I would check when they arrived in Scotland this year and it looks like it was a few days early than last.

12th September this year, 14th September last year and 2nd October 2009. They are getting earlier! Must mean we are in for another cold 'un.

Either that or they didn't get callenders from Santa! :smilz38:

I read somewhere that Geese only travel when the wind is in their back. The date of arrival depends on the wind change and not the temperature. They have to wait longer some years for a North Westerly to push them to Scotland.

[trisnow]

I read somewhere that Geese only travel when the wind is in their back. The date of arrival depends on the wind change and not the temperature. They have to wait longer some years for a North Westerly to push them to Scotland.

*sticks fingers in ears so can't hear what November13 is saying as doesn't want to believe it*

I'll pretend you didn't post that and carry on belieing this quote thanks!

Their arrival heralds important data for global warming scientists who believe the later pink footed geese fly over, the warmer our temperatures are.

lol

[November13]

*sticks fingers in ears so can't hear what November13 is saying as doesn't want to believe it*

I'll pretend you didn't post that and carry on belieing this quote thanks!

lol

Ok we all need to find comfort somewhere with this mild crapp!

[Isolated Frost]

nature is reactive not proactive.

[November13]

nature is reactive not proactive.

correct it's the butterfly effect. Everything in nature is triggered by something changing not forward planning. Unfortunately the old wives tales are just tales.

[EML Network]

I think folks are getting much too worked up, much too soon, were still in autumn, and still have 3 weeks of autumn left to go.

Widespread snowfall in December (at least the first half of it), is not really the norm, and hence shouldn't be expected, im sure someone is going to post a list of years now, where it's snowed widely before Mid Dec, but don't bother, as it is not the usual way of things in the UK.

So a bit of decorum, a quick reality check is needed by most here, and above all patience, snow will fall, and you'll only know for sure a few days beforehand (at best), I can't see anything to suggest any widespread snow potential, for the next 2 weeks, so until we get to the end of November, i'm not going to bother getting my hopes up, as I'll be dissapointed

[jethro]

correct it's the butterfly effect. Everything in nature is triggered by something changing not forward planning. Unfortunately the old wives tales are just tales.

Not strictly true. Studies have shown that animals can and do react to the imminent threat of Earthquakes/Tsunamis etc, they sense them before humans do. Geese arriving here are really driven by a desire to get away from where they are as food is running low, they do herald the arrival of Winter, snow and frost but in the lands from where they are leaving. If the wind is in the right direction, they'll usher snow into these shores too but only if the wind is coming from the direction of their previous home.

[chionomaniac]

I have just seen a very interesting post on Americanwx were a chap has looked at previous Novembers where a Scandi block was prevalent. He has then looked at the blocking patterns over the next two months. Here are the results:

November

December

January

As we can see the polar vortex looks in charge for December followed by a large blocking pattern for January. So perhaps patience is required this winter.

If I were to produce a forecast it would go along these lines even without knowledge of the pattern matching so it is good to see a matched pattern to it.

[damianslaw]

Do those years mentioned above reflect those synoptics. I don't recall Jan 1995 being a particularly cold blocked month - quite the contrary. Bit confused it has to be said. The Dec synoptic would appear to suggest alot of polar maritime air- always a good airmass in my book and one distinctly lacking in recent winters - indeed in recent years!

[chionomaniac]

Do those years mentioned above reflect those synoptics. I don't recall Jan 1995 being a particularly cold blocked month - quite the contrary. Bit confused it has to be said. The Dec synoptic would appear to suggest alot of polar maritime air- always a good airmass in my book and one distinctly lacking in recent winters - indeed in recent years!

The years taken will be averaged out to the 500hPa mean so some will be above and some below that average I suspect.

[karyo]

The January chart would be epic and in fact I quite like the December one too!

Karyo

[Don]

The January chart would be epic and in fact I quite like the December one too!

Karyo

That chart for January does indeed look pretty good to me. I would certainly take a mild December if it meant that we were to get a January like that!

[Summer Sun]

Matt Hugo has posted this on TWO,

Morning all, unfortunately it is generally bad news from the EC 32 day update with essentially a complete reversal of fortunes this week. Call that a random change and things may return to the previous signalled block to the N of the UK in coming weeks, but this is now also evident within the EC and GFS ENS to back up the new signal from the 32 day.

In essence by the end of November and up to the 10th/11th of December low pressure becomes dominant to the N of the UK and high pressure dominates to the S and SW. As a result and in summary the outlook during the final quarter of November and into the opening 10 days or so of December is now essentially a 'cold zonality' scenario. Temperatures do look like returning to near average values which would likely lead to some wintry precipitation in places, but unfortunately the change this week is clearly a huge one compared with the blocked pattern which was evident in previous weeks. So in summary this weeks 32 day is highlighting a gradual change to cooler, near average temperatures but with increasingly unsettled, atlantic weather with PPN totals trending above average.

Also of interest is that the the EC seasonal forecast has had a recent revamp and is now 'System 4' - This link is freely available online after a google search so if anyone wants to read more about it then this link will provide that - http://www.ecmwf.int/pro...chnical_description.html

However, the System 4 update, which now is available on the 8th of month rather than the 15th, paints an horrendous outlook for D/J/F now with the +ve pressure anom (blocked signal in recent months) across the UK now gone and we essentially have low pressure to the N and NW of the UK and higher pressure to the S and SW (+ve NAO) and an unsettled and 'typical' UK winter pattern. Make of that as you will, but all the signs from a forecast model perspective are pointing towards a pretty poor winter now in terms of cold and snowy conditions...Clearly the ECM seasonal model was way off the mark last winter without question, but when a model, whether seasonal or short range, has some additions made to it to improve resolution and the likes you do expect some improvement in the model as otherwise the changes wouldn't have been made.

M.

Every seems to going into place for a mild winter.

:good: