2121 replies to this topic

[hedgehog4]

Peter H, on 21 February 2012 - 12:17 , said:

Winter is over for this year I'm afraid.

Were you saying that about Summer in August?

[Peter H]

hedgehog4, on 21 February 2012 - 17:16 , said:

Were you saying that about Summer in August?

Well, I've even given up looking at the weather on TV religiously, so it must be over.

[Alza]

Northerlies are generally better than easterlies by this time of year as if the uppers aren't cold enough the easterly would deliver cold, dry weather rather than snow. Obviously there are exceptions though. Convective NE'lies often deliver the most troughing, I had 4 prolonged snow events from the Nov/Dec 2010 event an they were all as a result of convective snow showers from the North Sea. I know some places to the west of the Pennines saw 10-15cm despite NE'ly winds which is quite unusual. Easter 2008 started as a NE'ly, but then a trough brought 6 hours or so of heavy snow from the NNW, affecting W Scotland, Cumbria, Yorkshire and then finally E and SE, and probably parts of the Midlands too.

Some inland areas which regularly miss out from convective northerlies tend to do better in Spring as the sun is strong enough to keep some of the convection going over land, so the showers tend to die out less as they move S'wards.

[bluearmy]

sebastiaan1973, on 21 February 2012 - 14:23 , said:

First 20 days De Bilt -2,2c. 10th place since 1900.
http://mscha.org/knm...ion=260&month=2

shurely shum mishtake (quote peter h)

[Cloud 10]

sebastiaan1973, on 21 February 2012 - 14:23 , said:

First 20 days De Bilt -2,2c. 10th place since 1900.
http://mscha.org/knm...ion=260&month=2

bluearmy, on 21 February 2012 - 22:02 , said:

shurely shum mishtake  (quote peter h)

Can't help being "reeled in" by the number 1 on that list.


http://modeles.meteo...956-2-2-0-2.png

http://modeles.meteo...56-2-14-0-0.png

[bluearmy]

Cloud 10, on 22 February 2012 - 11:48 , said:

Can't help being "reeled in" by the number 1 on that list. http://modeles.meteo...956-2-2-0-2.png http://modeles.meteo...56-2-14-0-0.png

without the azores high, we were very close to that setup a few weeks ago.

[feb1991blizzard]

I have learned a few things over the course of this winter, one of which is viewing the Ensembles in full gives you a far better perspective on things rather than just looking at the uppers graph, and one straw to clutch, and yes i know it is deep FI, is that there are some interesting possibilities in the 18z GEFS suite, there are only about 5 or six that are zonal right the way through, admittedly there are only a few that deliver widespread snow events but there are a good number of close but no cigar members that with a bit of tweaking could deliver, i would say that the possibility of the high ridging far enough North to deliver potent cold into the UK cannot be discounted completely, the Stratospheric profile isnt that bad that the strong PV is guaranteed to last for any length of time, for what its worth, i think a high over us with any cold going into Europe (sickener again) is strong favourite still and im going for a mildish first half of March with the possibility of a cold snap towards Easter but nothing from about 5th March onwards is completely set in stone.

Best GEFS member is number 2 which shows a belter of a battleground setup. feb 1996 anyone ????

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=0


EDIT : Yes i know frontal alignment was NW to SE in 1996 but all the same i think people would settle for that run.

Edited by feb1991blizzard, 23 February 2012 - 00:04 .

[M1JWR]

M1JWR, on 15 October 2011 - 17:27 , said:

As far as i am concerned, nature itself is a good indicator of the forthcoming season
i know a guy with a horse, the key is the thickness of its coat, it wasent wrong last year
This time last year it had a thick coat, and started to loose it last january after the cold
spell
This year its coat is nowhere as thick
what does that tell you all

Check the date of this post people, my money was allways on the horse

[Cheese Rice]

lol at the above.

[sebastiaan1973]

bluearmy, on 21 February 2012 - 22:02 , said:

shurely shum mishtake (quote peter h)

No, it ain't a mistake. 'Totaal' = the average temperature at the of the month, 'nu'= the average temperature for the running month. So when you take a look today, the 23th of februar, it shows the average temperature from 1-22 februar. When I posted the orginal message, it was the average from 1-20 februar.

[CreweCold]

M1JWR, on 23 February 2012 - 00:06 , said:

Check the date of this post people, my money was allways on the horse

By jove! I think you've single handedly cracked seasonal forecasting. When I saw your original post I thought you were just horsing about, but having seen this I think you're on to a 'sure win'.

*doh*

[M1JWR]

CreweCold, on 23 February 2012 - 16:26 , said:

By jove! I think you've single handedly cracked seasonal forecasting. When I saw your original post I thought you were just horsing about, but having seen this I think you're on to a 'sure win'.

*doh*

Better than mystic meg then, next one, spring is on the way, saw frogs on the moove today/tonight, thats usually a shure thing

[Peter H]

What did I say a couple of weeks ago ? February was going to be an overall mild month, even for those that had the cold start. Who was right ? Why don't people listen ?

I even got a number P.M.s,telling me to "give over" , from several poor misguided souls who were still clinging to the forlorn hope that it would be a really cold one.

Well, my back yard or not, my predictions have turned out to be correct, although even I didn't expect it to be this mild.

I wonder what a max. of 19 degrees in Warwickshire is going to do to the February C.E.T. ?

Still, a real stinker of a winter and, as I have said before, up there with the really bad ones.

Despite 2009/10 and 2010/11, we're still long overdue something on the scale of 62/63, or even 78/79. and 81/82. 2009/10 came close, and had 2010/11 not gone pear shaped after Boxing day 2010, it really would have been excellent..

Still, I live in hope. Here's to the 2012/13 season.

Edited by Peter H, 23 February 2012 - 23:44 .

[Peter H]

M1JWR, on 23 February 2012 - 22:53 , said:

Better than mystic meg then, next one, spring is on the way, saw frogs on the moove today/tonight, thats usually a shure thing

You a radio Ham ? I'm GI4 KBW.

[M1JWR]

Peter H, on 23 February 2012 - 23:45 , said:

You a radio Ham ? I'm GI4 KBW.

Yes mate i am, 73 de m1jwr

[Peter H]

M1JWR, on 24 February 2012 - 01:38 , said:

Yes mate i am, 73 de m1jwr

Thought you might be.

It's amazing how many hams you meet on discussion forums !

[Peter H]

M1JWR, on 23 February 2012 - 22:53 , said:

Better than mystic meg then, next one, spring is on the way, saw frogs on the moove today/tonight, thats usually a shure thing

I wonder what kind of money Exacta weather pay ?

Edited by Peter H, 24 February 2012 - 01:53 .

[Mr_Data]

Peter H, on 23 February 2012 - 23:42 , said:

we're still long overdue something on the scale of 62/63,

I point out that 1962-63 was not a 1 in 10 year event. it was exceptional, it was 1.4C colder for the CET than 1946-47. You can't seriously expect another winter on that scale in the near future. Figures suggest that for Scotland 2009-2010 was the coldest winter since 1962-63.

[bluearmy]

sebastiaan1973, on 23 February 2012 - 15:45 , said:

No, it ain't a mistake. 'Totaal' = the average temperature at the of the month, 'nu'= the average temperature for the running month. So when you take a look today, the 23th of februar, it shows the average temperature from 1-22 februar. When I posted the orginal message, it was the average from 1-20 februar.

sorry sebastian - this was an ironic reply by me to peter H. it would get lost in translation between dutch and english !! its a phrase taken from a satirical magazine over here. i had no doubt of the validity of the figure you posted.

[bluearmy]

Peter H, on 23 February 2012 - 23:42 , said:

What did I say a couple of weeks ago ? February was going to be an overall mild month, even for those that had the cold start. Who was right ? Why don't people listen ? I even got a number P.M.s,telling me to "give over" , from several poor misguided souls who were still clinging to the forlorn hope that it would be a really cold one. Well, my back yard or not, my predictions have turned out to be correct, although even I didn't expect it to be this mild. I wonder what a max. of 19 degrees in Warwickshire is going to do to the February C.E.T. ? Still, a real stinker of a winter and, as I have said before, up there with the really bad ones. Despite 2009/10 and 2010/11, we're still long overdue something on the scale of 62/63, or even 78/79. and 81/82. 2009/10 came close, and had 2010/11 not gone pear shaped after Boxing day 2010, it really would have been excellent.. Still, I live in hope. Here's to the 2012/13 season.

a max of 19c will no doubt be the equivalent of a max of -3c re variance to the norm peter. and we have seen both this month !! so yes, you are wrong as usual. CET stands this morning at -0.75C. impossible for this month to a mild one. you are rapidly turning into the madden/corbyn of NW by making statements that are incorrect and then justifying them with others that are equally incorrect.