2121 replies to this topic

[Liam J]

Aaron, on 15 October 2011 - 07:47 , said:

Look, look, winter is here!

Could we have more detail please mate? I'm assuming it's a temperature chart but for when? Cheers.

[wolvesfan]

Liam J, on 15 October 2011 - 08:38 , said:

Could we have more detail please mate? I'm assuming it's a temperature chart but for when? Cheers.

looks like the bbc weather wednesday night temp chart.

[Snow? norfolk n chance]

willkani, on 15 October 2011 - 01:57 , said:

Arctic Blast To Bring Snow


http://www.express.c...sts/view/277583

first bit seems likely, 2 inches of snow for peak district, will be snow above 300m, and maybe -4C, but the rest shimmery moonlight! looks like holiday week will be milder looking at models

[Daniel AKA WMD]

I'm not entirely sure how accurate the IOD is, but it's forecasting below average temperatures for the UK and Europe between December-February, and much of the globe, having said that

http://www.jamstec.g...12.1oct2011.gif

[SP1986]

It seems unlikely that virtually 70% of the globe would be cold like that.. of course this will get trampled down, but i've never personally seen anomaly maps reveal that much cold, so I would suggest it's unlikely.

The only other thing I could suggest is that if that does happen, the places that are warm, are going to be very warm (possibly record breaking).

I've come to realise the Earth is adept at equalising situations, and will do all it can to create an equilibrium, without damaging the equilibrium in terms of spatial or temporal

[bluearmy]

Daniel AKA WMD, on 15 October 2011 - 10:04 , said:

I'm not entirely sure how accurate the IOD is, but it's forecasting below average temperatures for the UK and Europe between December-February, and much of the globe, having said that

http://www.jamstec.g...12.1oct2011.gif

can someone post a mean pressure anomoly chart that would lead to that pattern of warm eastern states/cool southern greenland, warm ne greenland/cold europe/warm scandi and siberia. now there is a challenge - must be possible as the mean chart is derived from 27 member runs.

[chionomaniac]

bluearmy, on 15 October 2011 - 10:36 , said:

can someone post a mean pressure anomoly chart that would lead to that pattern of warm eastern states/cool southern greenland, warm ne greenland/cold europe/warm scandi and siberia. now there is a challenge - must be possible as the mean chart is derived from 27 member runs.

Funny that you should post this as I too was trying to work out what synoptic patterns would lead to the anomalies on the IO dipole chart. I know it is an average of all the months but the whole of the western Siberian Arctic is in a warm anomaly as is eastern Greenland. So that begs the question where is the cold that creates the UK anomaly going to come from? A little channel through Iceland by the looks of it.


Edit. Think about it further I suspect that there must be a wide divergence on the 27 member runs with a cluster at each end of the scale which gives the odd look to the anomaly chart. Perhaps we should be looking at the more confident warm anomalies and basing any mean pressure anomaly chart on them solely.

Edited by chionomaniac, 15 October 2011 - 10:50 .

[beng]

chionomaniac, on 15 October 2011 - 10:44 , said:

Funny that you should post this as I too was trying to work out what synoptic patterns would lead to the anomalies on the IO dipole chart. I know it is an average of all the months but the whole of the western Siberian Arctic is in a warm anomaly as is eastern Greenland. So that begs the question where is the cold that creates the UK anomaly going to come from? A little channel through Iceland by the looks of it.


Edit. Think about it further I suspect that there must be a wide divergence on the 27 member runs with a cluster at each end of the scale which gives the odd look to the anomaly chart. Perhaps we should be looking at the more confident warm anomalies and basing any mean pressure anomaly chart on them solely.

What about the charts for Feb 1991. Take a look at the 7th Feb 1991 - sorry couldn't resist a small winter ramp

Seriously it's strongly suggestive of Scandinavian blocking - not that that means it's going to be correct of course. It was similar last year, but went for a cold E US too if I remember correctly.

Edited by beng, 15 October 2011 - 11:21 .

[johnholmes]

bluearmy, on 15 October 2011 - 10:36 , said:

can someone post a mean pressure anomoly chart that would lead to that pattern of warm eastern states/cool southern greenland, warm ne greenland/cold europe/warm scandi and siberia. now there is a challenge - must be possible as the mean chart is derived from 27 member runs.

I think there is something more than a bit odd about that chart. If you look at the IRI, Met O, and ECPC outputs for the same months they are nothing like that. It just seems highly unlikely that over a 3 month period so much of the globe would show what they are suggesting?

[beng]

johnholmes, on 15 October 2011 - 11:05 , said:

I think there is something more than a bit odd about that chart. If you look at the IRI, Met O, and ECPC outputs for the same months they are nothing like that. It just seems highly unlikely that over a 3 month period so much of the globe would show what they are suggesting?

Yes a cold bias in the model maybe John? It was cold this time last year too, I don't know for sure how the winter land based surface temps averaged globally, but I don't think they were quite as cold as it predicted.

[DeepSnow]

Possible start of the mini-iceage? lol

There has to be something wrong there to show that much cold around the world? and be the only one showing it? Time will tell as ever, but like many I highly doubt that will happen!

Winter could show its first hand that its just around the corner this week, with parts of the U.K in with a chance of snow to lower levels in the far North and frost in the South East! Looking good

[Scotster]

DeepSnow, on 15 October 2011 - 11:35 , said:

Winter could show its first hand that its just around the corner this week, with parts of the U.K in with a chance of snow to lower levels in the far North and frost in the South East! Looking good

I'd say winter has eleven hands. I just posted a blog piece about the 11 signs I look out for in the run up to winter:

http://benvironment....74/winterevents

At the moment they're happening along the same kind of timeline I'd expect in this part of the world. No frosts or subzero nights yet......but then the first subzero temperature here last year wasn't until 21st October, which also coincided with the first meaningful snowfall on the mountains. Wouldn't mind if they came earlier though!

[M1JWR]

As far as i am concerned, nature itself is a good indicator of the forthcoming season
i know a guy with a horse, the key is the thickness of its coat, it wasent wrong last year
This time last year it had a thick coat, and started to loose it last january after the cold
spell
This year its coat is nowhere as thick
what does that tell you all

[Backtrack]

Hmm. Tonight looks chilly. Could be the first widespread frost of the season if the cloud holds off.

Edited by Backtrack, 15 October 2011 - 17:33 .

[Active Weather Dude]

M1JWR, on 15 October 2011 - 17:27 , said:

As far as i am concerned, nature itself is a good indicator of the forthcoming season
i know a guy with a horse, the key is the thickness of its coat, it wasent wrong last year
This time last year it had a thick coat, and started to loose it last january after the cold spell
This year its coat is nowhere as thick
what does that tell you all

That the horse is going to be bl00dy cold in December??

[Isolated Frost]

M1JWR - nature is reactive, not proactive. Whatever happens now means nothing for the upcoming winter.

[summer blizzard]

It is official, on top of not ever reading Daily Mail articles i am now no longer going to read articles from the Express. They are beyond stupid.

[wimblettben]

Aaron, on 15 October 2011 - 07:47 , said:

Look, look, winter is here!

It's hardly going to be very noteworthy is it!

Some temperatures on or below freezing only on the highest parts of Scotland. Wow.

[A Scottish Winter's Tale]

The Daily Express article was just nonsense and so are simular articles by the Daily Mail (in particular) aswell as Daily Star and the Sun.

People you meet in the shop, street, school boast and gossip about how it's meant to snow at the end of the week and you know that newspapers such as the Express just play with people with an average meterological understanding by exaggerating on forecasts and publications.

What I've noticed this time round is that the articles this year seem more extreme. Another thing that is getting on my nerves is how they talk about that heatwave as if it was yesterday.


Anyway, looking towards next week should be interesting weather wise with strong winds, some rain about aswell as the potential for cold temperatures (i.e first 0c of the autumn) aswell as some hill snow in the highlands and perhaps to lower levels in places like Moray and Aberdeenshire. My feeling at the moment is that we will see Blocking from Greenland sometime between mid November and mid January and this should result in a cold spell (the duration and intensity of it of course would be uncertain). Even if the Greenland high doesn't pop up, the potential for shortlived cold spells is still alive and even in some of the milder and duller winters of 90s and 00s saw some decent snowfalls and cold spells. So when people say a winter is likely to be mild certainly doesn't rule out notable cold spells with snow and very rarely do we get a winter with very little snowfall (i.e at least we can expect some snow at some stage in a winter).

There is still 7 weeks till winter begins and we still have the potential/bonus for Northern Blocking to develop during November to bring another notable cold spell, however that woukd be a bonus and the earliest would like to see such synoptics would be at least in late November.

In conclusion, I feel relatively posisitive about this winter with the potential for not only smaller cold spells, but the greater prospect of the prominent feature that is the Greenland High which of course can bring severe winter weather for a sustained period and I believe that we have got November, December and January to look forward to for experiencing the Greenland High with a cracking start to the winter or looking out for it with decent developments during November and December (and don't write Febuary off).

[sebastiaan1973]

A nice forecast of the winter 2012.

http://www.lightinth...om/archives/420
E.g.
Putting it all together
The dominant factors at play for the winter of 2011-12 should be a weak geomagnetic field, weak electric field strength of the solar wind, a negative NAO, AO, PNA, PDO, and ENSO (moderate La Nina). In addition, a factor not mentioned in the discussion is the QBO, which measures variations in the equatorial stratospheric wind, will be near neutral to slightly negative. Data for winters with this modality in conjunction with the solar external forcing noted already support negative NAO winters with plentiful blocking. Notice that all the indices mentioned above will be in a negative state, suggesting that the middle latitudes of the northern hemisphere are in for a colder than normal winter overall. However, that does not mean everyone will be cold. Notable pockets of warmer than normal temperature departures will exist this winter, one such location over much of the Southern United States. Coupling the conditions expected with analogs (years with similar regimes to this one) suggest an overall warm winter (DJF) from the Southwestern US eastward through the central/southern Plains, and the Southeastern US. The DJF departure map for the Northeast of slightly below average temperatures is a bit deceiving, as I believe there will be periods of extreme cold and extreme warmth spattering the winter in the Northeast. The northern Rockies into the Mid-western US and Great Lakes should have a more predominately colder than average winter.
My analogs for this winter: 1954-55, 1955-56, and 2008-09.

Important for us -on the others ite of the Ocean- is in my opinion the predicted negative NAO.

Edited by sebastiaan1973, 15 October 2011 - 19:09 .