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Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

The only other thing is if all the cold air is being bottled up in the northern Arctic reaches that isn't going to help with regards to the snow-growth in the 50-60N range and that is fairly important at this time of year. I've noticed that the snow/ice recovery tends to give a very good hint of what the winter is going to be like, a fast recovery tends to highlight a better chance of below average winter (though there are obviously better factors to use to determine a winter...)

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

Strange temp profiles for the globe.

Indeed it looks like a cool summer over most of the southern hemisphere. Also Tibet looks warm in winter whilst India looks cool at the same time. Very strange. Since Tibet is the source of the cool, dry winter monsoon logically both India and Tibet should be cooler than average.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

The only other thing is if all the cold air is being bottled up in the northern Arctic reaches that isn't going to help with regards to the snow-growth in the 50-60N range and that is fairly important at this time of year. I've noticed that the snow/ice recovery tends to give a very good hint of what the winter is going to be like, a fast recovery tends to highlight a better chance of below average winter (though there are obviously better factors to use to determine a winter...)

I'm with you on that theory, I think that snowcover is extremely important to what the winter will do, that's why I started my thread.

The snow cover this year is a little down on last year, but it's falling in much the same pattern.

Central/nrothern Russia has alot less atm, which leads me to think that the coldest of the winter will be at around christmas time as it stands.

I WILL find the holy grail of winter forecasts and the answer lies in the snow!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

apparently the latest ecm look ahead to the winter period (issued 15/10) has a positive pressure anomoly in our part of nw europe with a negative anomoly to our north. whilst the blocking over us is good news for those chasing a cold winter, the negative anomoly to our north is not as it makes it less likely that the block will be able to migrate to positions to deliver a cold flow in general. all in all, better to have a block than not.

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

Good to see you back Winter. *Salutes*

winterb.png

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Edited by Backtrack
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

apparently the latest ecm look ahead to the winter period (issued 15/10) has a positive pressure anomoly in our part of nw europe with a negative anomoly to our north. whilst the blocking over us is good news for those chasing a cold winter, the negative anomoly to our north is not as it makes it less likely that the block will be able to migrate to positions to deliver a cold flow in general. all in all, better to have a block than not.

Can you please post the link?

Karyo

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Posted
  • Location: Strathblane/Killearn nr Glasgow
  • Location: Strathblane/Killearn nr Glasgow

Brian Gaze has just posted his early thoughts for the upcoming winter (2011/12) over on TWO.

Discuss his thoughts below.

Here's the link:

http://theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=bg&id=1821

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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL

So in laymans terms that reads...... 50/50?

Signals are pointing at this stage to a possibly milder winter than the previous two, but then don't discount the possibility of it being another cold one? That would suggest at this rate that pretty much anything is on the cards...

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Posted
  • Location: Live Hatfield Herts / Work - In the City
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme aside from heat. Pref cold and snow
  • Location: Live Hatfield Herts / Work - In the City

So its going to be mild but also cant rule out cold...... Basically the same as everyone else then. We all know snow isnt the easiest thing to predict, but it does make good reading....Only time will tell

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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

Well, it's about as non committal as you could expect given how wide of the mark most people's forecasts were last year (it's quite funny reading how sure they were of a milder December last year, even until mid November) .

What do I think will happen this year? Well, if the rumblings from Icelandic volcano country get any more serious then that's another factor which may tip things in a colder direction. At the moment I'd go for the Winter to be severest in January.

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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

Certainly a distinct nip in the air the last couple of days which I haven't feltsince the beginning of the year. Heating won't be going on until the beginning of November.

Winter is fast approaching folks.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Well, it's about as non committal as you could expect given how wide of the mark most people's forecasts were last year (it's quite funny reading how sure they were of a milder December last year, even until mid November) .

What do I think will happen this year? Well, if the rumblings from Icelandic volcano country get any more serious then that's another factor which may tip things in a colder direction. At the moment I'd go for the Winter to be severest in January.

Katla's eruptions are not big enough to have any significant influence on the climate. Krakatoa would do a much better job at this!

Karyo

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Brian Gaze has just posted his early thoughts for the upcoming winter (2011/12) over on TWO.

Discuss his thoughts below.

Here's the link:

http://theweatherout...type=bg&id=1821

I think Brian's early thoughts do sound reasonable, but it is very difficult to put together a reasonable picture this far out. Does anyone know if Brian normally includes other factors such as AMO, PDO phases, QBO and stratospheric profile, NH snow coverage, atmospheric state and trend, when making his definitive winter forecast?

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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

Katla's eruptions are not big enough to have any significant influence on the climate. Krakatoa would do a much better job at this!

Karyo

If it does properly erupt though, in the way that many are suggesting, then there could easily be an effect on climate. There is historical record of similar eruptions pumping out sulphur dioxide into the atmosphere, darkened skies, potential for increased heat in summer and cold in winter and so on.

All a bit biblical but it's the sort of thing that we've done well to avoid recently.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Can you please post the link?

Karyo

sorry - ecm stuff like that is generally only available to those prepared to pay for it. i was referencing a post on TWO from Matt Hugo who does have access to it.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

sorry - ecm stuff like that is generally only available to those prepared to pay for it. i was referencing a post on TWO from Matt Hugo who does have access to it.

Ok thanks

If it does properly erupt though, in the way that many are suggesting, then there could easily be an effect on climate. There is historical record of similar eruptions pumping out sulphur dioxide into the atmosphere, darkened skies, potential for increased heat in summer and cold in winter and so on.

All a bit biblical but it's the sort of thing that we've done well to avoid recently.

To have a maximum effect, it would have to erupt when the sun is at it's strongest and days at their longest. Why would you expect increased heat in summer though?

Karyo

Edited by karyo
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Posted
  • Location: Strathblane/Killearn nr Glasgow
  • Location: Strathblane/Killearn nr Glasgow

I think Brian's early thoughts do sound reasonable, but it is very difficult to put together a reasonable picture this far out. Does anyone know if Brian normally includes other factors such as AMO, PDO phases, QBO and stratospheric profile, NH snow coverage, atmospheric state and trend, when making his definitive winter forecast?

I don't think he does.

Reading his comments it seems that he takes weather patterns into account from the months in the run up to winter.

He never mentions these things when he makes a forecast.

He seems to take Solar activity and ENSO into account, but never mentions other factors, so I think

it is unlikely.

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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

To have a maximum effect, it would have to erupt when the sun is at it's strongest and days at their longest. Why would you expect increased heat in summer though?

Karyo

Well, the 1783 Laki eruption was pretty devastating (in June and going through to the winter), reportedly contributing to a large number of deaths throughout Europe via the Sulphur Dioxide, the summer then also became much hotter at times in the immediate aftermath (contemporary reports), the winter after being also very extreme. Seems to have been similar in some ways to the 'year without a Summer' in 1816, which did come from the East.

To have two such events within a lifetime must have had a real effect on how people viewed the power of nature.

Edited by ukpaul
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

I don't think he does.

Reading his comments it seems that he takes weather patterns into account from the months in the run up to winter.

He never mentions these things when he makes a forecast.

He seems to take Solar activity and ENSO into account, but never mentions other factors, so I think

it is unlikely.

Ok thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: W. Northants
  • Location: W. Northants

Heres plenty of information on the 1833/1834 eruption of Laki,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laki

The CET for July 1833 was 18.8 - One of the hottest months on record. Many people died across Europe from poisionous sulpher clouds and the sky turned red with a deadly haze then hanging over the UK and Europe until autumn.

Then in winter the weather across Europe and North America became severely cold and the climate stayed extreme for the next decade (some actually believe that the seeds of the French revolution were sowed by the eruption of Laki and the resultant extreme weather leading to famines and poverty)

Icelandic volcanos do very much have the power the effect our weather in the UK and Europe and even through the northern hemipshere. They probably can't effect the entire planet, like an equatorial volcano can, but they shouldn't be underestimated.

Edited by Gavin P
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

The Laki eruption was very different to the eruptions that Katla gives. As for the hot summer that followed, I don't think it was related to the eruption.

Karyo

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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

The potential is there for something similar, Katla may have erupted similarly in the 10th century, hardly likely for anything now to be as devastating though, those are very rare events thankfully. Then again, these things have to happen sometime. Anyway, this has moved away from winter prospects, I merely mentioned it as another variable.

There is also a study which points to evidence that the July heatwave in Europe resulted from a short term greenhouse warming created by the emissions from Laki and high levels of sulphur dioxide in the lower troposphere. This becoming less of an effect the further away from the volcano you went. Too far away to be certain of any evidence either way though I suppose.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

The potential is there for something similar, Katla may have erupted similarly in the 10th century, hardly likely for anything now to be as devastating though, those are very rare events thankfully. Then again, these things have to happen sometime. Anyway, this has moved away from winter prospects, I merely mentioned it as another variable.

There is also a study which points to evidence that the July heatwave in Europe resulted from a short term greenhouse warming created by the emissions from Laki and high levels of sulphur dioxide in the lower troposphere. This becoming less of an effect the further away from the volcano you went. Too far away to be certain of any evidence either way though I suppose.

Laki is actually a bad example when comparing to Kalta.

Eruptions at Kalta are typically explosive but relatively short similar to St Helens (1980) or Vesuvius (1684) and while they may have an impact on the weather it is relatively small.

The eruption at Laki was a massive fissure eruption which continued unabaited for around 8 months and while there is no doubt a correlation between that eruption and the extreme weather that followed the chances that Kalta would produce anywhere near the required SO2 emmisions is extremely remote.

When you add to that that lava is less than 1km under the surface of Kalta it does not indicate a significant pressure build and infact indicates that pressure is leaking out, hence this reduces the chances of a major eruption.

In summary, even if Kalta does erupt i am very doubtful as to the effect it will have (that said, another Laki eruption would be good).

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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

(that said, another Laki eruption would be good).

Thanks for the specifics on Katla, i'd originally only referred to it as a potential short term and minor disturbance, looks like it wouldn't be any more than that, thankfully.

As for another Laki being 'good', given the effect last time I'm not sure I really want all that to happen again!!

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